ETHUSD Update: Higher high established at 316 with a minor retrace unfolding. There is a nice motive wave formation that can provide clues as to how much further this market can go before a more significant retrace.
I have been writing about the 250 to 280 resistance zone which this market pushed through without much hesitation taking it into the 306 to 349 zone which is the .618 of the recent bear swing (which I have written about in previous reports). Price finally peaked in this zone, but what is a reasonable expectation for the low of this retrace and a target for the next leg up? I am going to use Elliot Wave to answer this question.
Before I get into the wave count, I need to highlight the support level at the 242 level (inversion). For those of you who follow my reports, you will recall that 242 was a major resistance that needed to be taken out in order to make new highs. In light of the recent bullish structure and momentum, this level is less likely to be reached anytime soon. The level just above this at 262 (.382 of recent bullish swing) is a more reasonable possibility. If price reaches 262 it would present one good area to look for reversals back up.
From the Elliot Wave perspective, we are in a Wave 4 of a larger degree Wave 3. Wave 3's are never the shortest wave, and this recent upswing fits within that basic rule. Since this is a minor degree Wave 4, it is reasonable to expect a retracement of relative proportion. The 279 level (.382 of Wave 3 swing) presents a proportional level to look for a minor Wave 4 completion and start of 5. The Wave 5 of 3 can take this market into the higher part of the resistance zone in the 350s which would complete the larger degree Wave 3. Once this happens, we then face larger degree Wave 4 which is a broader corrective structure.
The wave count is clearly bullish and I have been patiently waiting for an attractive level to enter. A market that grinds higher is a tough one for me because of the nature of my trading plan. Now that we are in a minor Wave 4, I am closely watching the 279 support for a reversal on a smaller time frame like an hourly. If I manage to get long there, my stop will be in the mid to low 250s. My target for this would be a new high into the 330s. That is risking about 25 points to make about 50, or 2:1 RR which is acceptable.
In summary, the current retrace in this market can lead to a buying opportunity around the 279 level. Barring any fundamental surprises, the strength of this market should take price into the mid 300s upon the completion of the minor wave 4. Once the next leg up finds it's peak, the following corrective wave will be a much larger degree, so I would like to be out of the market before then.