Not long ago, we warned about the rally being doomed to fail. Indeed, prior to the merge, we stated that a short-lived price increase might occur before the distribution of ETHW tokens (due to speculation). Our assessment proved correct, and the price rose ahead of the merge. Furthermore, the hype was quickly killed by the latest CPI print in the United States, sparking a selloff in the equity market.
Fundamental factors remain bearish, and with the upcoming FOMC, we would argue they are poised to worsen even more. Because of that, we will pay close attention to the monetary meeting on 21st September 2022. We think the FED will reiterate its hawkish narrative laying a pathway for another significant rate hike in December (and potentially an emergency rate hike in November).
Regarding technical factors, these continue to forecast a lower price for ETHUSD. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish bias and stick to our price targets at 1000 USD and 900 USD.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the CPI print and its effect on the price of Ethereum.
Technical analysis - daily time frame Stochastic and RSI are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish; however, the trend is weak.
Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for ETHUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is neutral. Stochastic is bullish. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Well, not all indicators support this scenario now, and neither does the news. That is why I think that the idea will not work, and the risks are too high now. But thank you for sharing your vision.