In case you have not been following our swing trade on S.C., it reached its 55 point profit target 2 days ago. The selection of that target was partly based on the .
The has been slightly compromised, but not enough to change our short term outlook. structure still dominates the short term momentum and until that changes, we are going to be very conservative as far as putting on new swing trades and their respective profit targets.
The short term argument is as follows. If the 516 low is taken out, followed by the newly established , then this market is more likely to retest the 458 reversal zone boundary. In an extreme sell off, price can even test the 423 reversal zone boundary. This is the type of price action we wait for when it comes to our inventory building strategies.
Again, the selling scenarios are all IFs. Meanwhile, price is still within a broad . The 544 to 464 area is the .618 of a recent structure. As imprecise as this area may be, it cannot be ignored. It does present a chance that a higher low or failed low formation can materialize here. This is what the bears are not seeing and will be seriously caught off guard. Great scenario for people who hold inventory.
Another sign that canot be ignored is if the stays intact. A long signal off of the current inside bars can also catch many by surprise. If this happens, it will most likely be lead by a similar signal in BTC .
In summary, before any of these markets show real signs of recovery, they need to take out their trend resistance levels. In this case it is the 625 level which is the .382 of the recent structure. Until then, we are likely to see wide range bound markets that do not make any real progress.
At S.C., we are not convinced of a completley market because of 2 conditions. The first is the general price location. The second is the premise that this market is forming a broad higher low formation which is also still in line with the count I posted recently.
This type of environment is not without its opportunities, but patience and realistic expectations are key. We let the market tell its story and adjust to it, always evaluating the risks vs. potential rewards. No matter where it goes, we have a plan of action for that scenario.
Your own plan will serve you better than anything else. As I have been reminding our followers at S.C., use quiet time to plan ahead and to expand your knowledge. You will be much better prepared for when these markets get busy and the reactionary crowd returns.
All bearish price action criteria's are lined up:
*Breakout from a curve trendline
*Breakout from a decent support $6666
*Breakout from a blue trendline
*Break below a round number $6500
*Break below EMA's
*Back to below the trendline from 17.12.2017 second touch 05.05.2018
Last hope for the bulls! Round number $6500 works as a support is STILL ALIVE but I think not for a long! :D
1-hour and 4-hour candles closed both at $6501!