ETHUSD update: Price structure is showing signs of continued strength with a higher low and breakout of a smaller range between the 275 and 310 area. It still has to get through a wide resistance zone that has been holding this market back for over a month. Based on the new bullish structure, 372 is a realistic short term target.
I have not been writing about this market because it has been uneventful in terms of signals or opportunities defined by MY swing trade plan. The most recent price action now offers structure that suggests this market is setting up for a broader break out.
In my previous report, I described the range between 275 and 310, but that was just a minor range within a very large weekly range. The large overhead resistance zone that has been established for over a month is the 320 to 355 area (.618 of bearish structure off the 395 high). Within that zone there is a minor resistance between the 323 and 338 levels (.618 of the recent bearish swing off of the 335 high) which price is gyrating within at the moment.
Even though these resistance zones are in play, what makes this price action compelling is that fact that price is now coming from a base of strength. There is a higher low established at 286 level and a higher high at 339 which is the resistance zone high. (These zones have been on my charts weeks in advance, and they are still in play, special note for those who do not believe in the merit of TA).
This higher low structure also allows for new support levels to be anticipated which are the 315 level (.382 of structure), 312 (old resistance/new support) and the 300 to 288 area which is relative to the .618 of the bullish structure. When you project price extensions from the higher low, the 372 target is the 1.618 extension which makes it the potential short term target if this market has enough momentum to break out beyond the 355 level.
What is my plan? Previously I wrote about waiting for a retest of the 270 range support, but in light of the new bullish structure, I am now looking for a retest of the 315 level for a swing trade long. The 315 level offers slightly overlapping support and better reward/risk according to MY plan. So I will wait to see IF the market retests that level and look for some kind of bullish reversal, whether it is a smaller time frame chart pattern or larger time frame candle stick.
In summary, this market has finally developed some price structure worth writing about. The higher low and minor range breakout are bullish signs that can be the beginning of a much larger breakout that can take price beyond the 355 level. Based on proportions, the first target at the 372 level would be a good place to lock in some profit and reduce risk if you are currently long. Remember anything is possible in these markets and if this price decides to retest the 280s again, I would be interested in buying there also. On the weekly chart, this market IS still range bound so make sure to keep expectations within that context. I do believe in the long term (months) the big picture consolidation will break out and this market will see much higher prices, but it is not in a hurry at the moment, and you shouldn't be either.
The patience you display is a great reminder for me. Thanks for your analysis.
DARK-MAGE
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Good analysis for once.
Georgetlt
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Thank you
Tbox
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Thanks Marc - excellent as always!
girishgopinath
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Your charts are so well explained and detailed. Thanks for taking out the time.
Rvruggiero
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Taking a look at the @cburniske article The Crypto J-Curve - he mentions a discounted expected utility value (DEUV) period before massive moves up to the next wave using bitcoin as the primary example. Clearly right now there is an overwhelmingly bullish sentiment for ethereum and the concensus seems to be that things have consolidated to the point of ETH being ready for a breakout. If we look back in time, however, it's hard to argue that there has been a huge drop before the move to the next price range/wave and tends to happen right after we get this consolidation period. Why would this time and why would ETH be any different? Looking at bitcoin and tons of other altcoins, wondering if I'm missing somthing as I see a break DOWN before the break up. Curious for your thoughts especially now as bitcoin/bitcoin cash have had all the news and coverage lately.
f1dust
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@robertv.Ruggiero, he doesn't read the news when he's trading :D
wuyisepexf
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Thanks for the great analysis once again!
fsvlo
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sending thanks for the good analysis as always, please keep educating us sir!