SamHuynh

Eth-usd are we out of dangerous zone yet ?

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
This is discussion post only and you are welcome to express ur opinion
Plz don't forget to LIKE if you LIKE it :)


Coins have started recovering nicely today
And this is also the first time in a while Eth has shown stronger gain than BTC
So the question now is whether we are at the bottom yet ??

The answer is "If eth can go recover above 330 , then yes we are at bottom"

Can Eth do that ? 70% it CAN'T , unfortunately.

I still strongly believe that we will have one more big leg down to 200$ after this short recover by observing eth's past history and multiple coins' chart and upcoming event.

In conclusion, stay safe guys. If you are in long position with Eth now, always try to remember to take profit when you see bad sign. Longing now is a COUNTER trend trade. Don't just blindly think we switch to uptrend mode already just because we have a bounce here :)

Comment: again. You have been warned to remember to take your profit. Don't listen to other pumpers. My estimate top of this rally should be between 305-328$. The current recovery move matches nicely to Eth's pattern and multiple other coins including Bitcoin
Only if we can break 328$ convincely , the analysis will be revaluated . What's the chance for it ? 30% :)
Comment: don't ask me to guess the top for you because we are still in downtrend.
Comment: quoted "My estimate top of this rally should be between 305-328$" . :))
Comment: look for possible break out to the target zone if you are Long. Btc has just attempted to break out but got shot down. However, bull hasn't given up yet
Comment: btc weekly candle is a long-leg doji now. We can't ignore it , guys. Next week might be a strong green week.
Comment: see this possible scene on Eth ? yes, we can have few more green days but then what will happen next according to the MACD ?
Comment: only if the MACD crosses, then we can ignore another lower dump
Comment: to be clear, even if we have minor recover for few days, I still haven't changed my mind about the low 200$ because right now Eth still moves nicely to its old pattern. Only if the bull can prove itself and break Eth's dump pattern , then I will turn into buyer.
Comment: trading in top range now. But momentum is slowing down. If eth drops below 292$, Long should get out
Comment: my only regret is not trade on this recovery :). I didn't expect we would recover this much. However, I get my lessons multiple times. It is better to wait for real bottom coming instead of trying to catch small recovery period which might or might not come. If everyone still remembers how fast btc dumped on August without proper recover, you will get this lesson :))
Comment: my bearish view is still firm. Only if we can break and hold above the upper green line, then I will start looking bullish entry to join the train :)
Comment: it will happen when btc breaks above 6.8k :)
Comment: most alts have hit their resistance now and are fighting. I suggest to take profit here. Wait to see whether btc can break its resistance or not, then jump back in again. Remember that we are still in downtrend , don't expect coins will rise forever , guys
Comment: this place is one of the only few places you will get advise to sell :). We have bear div on 4hr. Hidden bear div on daily chart. In addition, we are in expanding triangle pattern now too which is bearish. In addition, btc's movement has been following its past movement closely. Only if we break 6.8k, thing will become bullish. This zone is very DANGEROUS zone to trade in now. Anyway, you have been warned :)

Comment: 2 possible pathes. Plz place your bet :)
Comment: next week is important, we will either heading lower or have a double bottom , then consolidation and go UP like the above chart i show . It is better not to have any position now and wait for a clear dicrection to jump in .
Comment: if you read my whole post, you already know where i hope Eth will head to :)
Comment: Do you know why i still stand on Bear side ? simple because around August 23rd (not remember exact date 23,24, or 25) SEC will give final decision to one bitcoin ETF . No more delay. Either YES or No. So what's the obvious answer ? obviously is NO. we are not ready for ETF yet. However, i still see some people in tradingview having delusive thought and fomo themselve for approving. Until people's eyes are open and in despair, ETF will be approved. Amen
Comment: pointing out important levels basing on volume

Comment: we are either here or there. Next week we will know and act accordingly
Comment: MACD on daily is ALMOST crossed . Very interesting development. If eth can go above 322$(previous high), we can believe that bottom is in and start looking to jump into the train
Comment: the breakout will happen when bitcoin can break its heavy daily RSI resistance which is famous to kick bitcoin to dive deeper when it approaches it. And we are near it already
Comment: Pay attention to August 23rd. It will be a BIG violated date. Right now btc has trapped a lot of short and long traders who uses fake-out inside bar strategy :). 6176$ and 6640$ are the upper/lower range you need to pay attention to
Comment: holy smoke btc breaks out.
Comment: im turning more bullish now because bearish patterns on Btc and eth have been broken. However, i will wait to see how today's candle ends first. Long entry for breaking out has been passed already. It is the price a little above 6640$.
Comment: 50 Moving average is holding back BTC
Comment: if we break above it and hold, then the potential Head and shoulder will be invalided but at this time bull is in favor
Comment: just in case , if today's candle close below 6640$, it will turn into bearish again :)
Comment: On-site news: trading on bitmex is really dangerous. During this breakout, Bitmex has gone offline and the price of bitcoin on bitmex has shot to 7150$ . Definitely, it has made a lot of Short traders liquidated because they can't act at all. So you should be careful when u trade on bitmex .
Comment: really don't advise to trade until August 23rd. This might be a big bull trap. BTC's chart still look bullish . However,Eth-usd, xrp-usd don't as good as btc. How today's candle closes will be pretty important.
Comment: ok, just wake up and see the price
Let's me tell you what happened yesterday

it was really a BULL TRAP. The sudden pump was because bitmex went into maintenance for a short period. So whales pumped bitcoin to KILL SHORT orders.
And I can tell you now that btc's chart looks VERY bearish now if today's candle ends like the current one.

Congratulations for patient players.
Comment: Trading bitcoin is very scary , folks :)
Comment: Patiently waiting to see how today's candle closes. Bear is in favor now
Comment: what's going on ETH-USD is easier to recognize than the one on btc
Comment: August 23rd will be a BIG day for us.

Accepted: crazy pump
Decline: you can guess the outcome already :)
Comment: ProShare ETF is rejected as EXPECTED. It is announced already.
Comment: im really surprise that market has no reaction to ETF rejected. It looks like market has expected it and price is in for it already. Nevertheless, price is still getting nowhere.Still in the old trading range which is not recommended to take position
Comment: we are approaching next Fib time zone tomorrow. Let's hope bitcoin will give us a clearer direction
Comment: honestly, btc is really tricky to me for trading now :). This time it doesn't follow its previous old pattern anymore. As you can see on the chart, btc usually will have one more last dump when it touches the middle line of boiling band. Nevertheless, we are moving in channel now. The current resistance will be the previous high around 6850$ , then next it will be the upper line of the channel.
Comment: we have 2 green weeks in a row.Basing on btc's past history, the chance for next week to be a Red one is 66.66%
Comment: Right now the blue and green line have crossed. if you look at the whole chart, there is only one time the cross giving false signal for uptrend. So my trade setup will be , if btc crosses down, and then crosses back up again, it will be a Buy signal for me. Currently i still don't think the uptrend really starts yet
Comment: in the mean time, ETH is still acting very weakly and still under the downtrend resistance. Until it can break out of it, it is not worth at playing
Comment: With 2 green weeks in a row for bitcoin, the chance for 3rd week to be red is 66.66%.
Nevertheless, if we can hold above 6200$ for the pullback, it is still a healthy pullback

Breaking below 6200$, that will be very bearish and I don't think 5750$ will hold this time
Comment: pretty much still a no trade zone here. Thing is getting no where. I m hoping this week will show come clues
Comment: we break up, the interesting price to watch right now are
1. 7000$. Why ? because of this pattern : bitcoin top at 11.5k, then 10k, then 8.5k, so next 7k$ is an interesting price to watch. Some people will definitely short there and it is also a psychological resistance
2. near 7.4k (around 7360-7.4k). Why ? it is the upper band of BB on weekly. Price definitely will stop there and decide next direction
Comment: opp. not the upper band, middle band :).
Comment: this is the current situation of short and long on bitfinex. Short is dropping but we can have a potential Cup and Handle in play if what we are doing right now is to form the handle .
Long is moving in its downtrend channel.

My thought is that we will have another rally when we are near September 30th for waiting result of CBOE ETF . These are the 2 possible paths :
1. we will continue on rising SLOWLY from here until near Sep 30th
2. we will have one more drop then start rising back up near Sep 30th


Lot of people think that btc can only rise to max 7.4k then start making lower low to 5k$ range. Right now i see that btc doesn't follow its past bearish pattern anymore.


So what should we do now ? I will say that if btc can break above 7.4k, then we can expect a strong bull. So for any long position now, always keep stop loss in tight because we have lot of resistances ahead.
Comment:
Comment: about ETH, I want to see something like that before jumping in. Basically , I want to see a FAILED double top which will signal a strong uptrend. You can look at what happened on last April.
Comment: it is ok to stay in sideline and watch , guys . Why ? because btc is still in big triangle , so trading inside this zone must have TIGHT stop loss
Comment: this is NEO-USD chart which acts much more stronger than ETH-USD. However, if you look at carefully, both are moving in the same chart pattern. And this is what I want to see on NEO-USD. Retrace and hold support to make the Double Top pattern failed and start going up to break the trading Range, it is a Bull Signal
Comment: we are at exciting moment now. Next phase should be how low the retracement is . It will convince us whether the real bull is starting or not.
Look at on the chart. Have you notice anything ?
Comment: ok, let's me tell u, we are at the top of the channel. However, the other important factor is that we are at number 8 Heiken candle. Bitcoin usually starts retracing on number 9. Depending on how low we retrace, it will decide whether we will continue on moving on higher or heading down lower
This week and next week will be very important
Comment: if u are in alt position now, I suggest to sell them all . Retracement is coming
Comment: btw, what's ur favorite way to spot Buy signal ?i think im still suck at it :). However, i can spot the sell signal easily >>><<
Comment: patiently waiting to see how low retracement will go to confirm further uptrend. The pattern is pretty clear now if we use NEO's chart . Either cup and handle case (retrace to middle band as my above chart) = bull scene or double top = bear scene and more caution will be taken. I don't use Eth chart because it is more bearish .
Comment: just a reminder, if you are buying now, u are not buying either Top or Bottom. You basically have bet that bitcoin will go up to near 7.5k before going down lower.

I hesitate at buying here because I see hidden bearish divergence on weekly chart. Right now it is waiting for a Top to be formed (here or higher but can't be too much high) before heading down
Comment: if btc can break out of the blue line, high chance that it will have one more last rally to max 7.5k. However, through last pullback we can see clearly a doubt and profit taken more than usual one. That doesn't mean much yet but just something to take note at
Comment: Monthly chart looks nice and very interesting. Next monthly candle might have pull back in early weeks then start rallying to have a good green one
Comment: BTCUSDSHORT keeps dropping and breaking the support. In the mean while, BTCUSDLONG doesn't increase much.
So what does it tell us ?

Long hesitates to go long but there are still few doing it. Short is closing their position. This is no good because later then when bitcoin reaches specific price, people can start doing massy short again.

Overall sentiment right now is still bullish in short-term
Comment: alts chart look very bullish through indicators. They are all showing bottoms
Comment: Has you seen the similarity now ?
Monthly candle is closed already.
I will say that you are very brave and risk gambler to buy in this range.
Only buy if the previous High is broken
Comment: this is the reason why I say BTC will have a significant pullback . Hidden bearish div on OBV. The top hasn't been formed yet so we can still go up little but a pullback will happen. I am expecting next week after US holiday ends.


In addition, with the current rate of going up of RSI, if we make a higher High now , it will definitely form a Bear div too.

In conclusion, if you play Long, don't hesitate to get out of trade right away when you see btc breaking higher low in ur favorite timeframe.

if you are not in position yet, then no need to be fomo. True pullback will come :)
Comment: just wake up and see alts ' party as I mention above :).
Btc also goes up little more too
The good thing is that I have seen lot of alts have broken out of their downtrend and some are starting.
Im strongly to believe now we are in early phase of the bull cycle. For stronger confirmation, we need 1 more week (Next week). So no need to fomo and do market buy
i will post some alts soon
Comment: sorry, i say "alt party this weekend in the comment section , not here " >><<
Comment: bitcoin cash 's post
Trade closed manually: im leaning back to bull side now so I will close this post :)
Comment: even though I have closed this post, but eth has just broken down 250$ . Look like the original target 180$-200$ for eth is still valid :)
anyway, i have been in cash position for a month now to wait for the bottom or bullish confirmation . It is really painful to watch coins rallying these past weeks but patience has really paid off.
Comment: this might be the last dump on Eth because there is a high chance we will have a bull div on 1 day chart. Nevertheless, if you want to long Eth, wait until the bull div is formed to get in. With the current level of RSI, bull div scene is very highly
Comment: look like coins are trolling me. They wait for me to close posts then start dropping. LoL
Comment: Bang, Eth is at 200$ :))
Trade closed: target reached: ok, my target 200$ is wrong :). We are heading south deeper .
Agree, deeper, probably $135+-, it will be interesting if bitcoin goes down a lot, what will happen with all those alts that are worth almost nothing at the moment, will they disappear?
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SamHuynh TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, if bitcoin reaches 5k, eth will be around 100$
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@SamHuynh, lets see what happens this week, it might bounce a little before going deeper.
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SamHuynh TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, if eth reaches 150$ range, we have high chance to have a bounce there first. Right now Bark pattern is back on btc. The market on btc is very hard to trade in the tight triangle range now
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lol it happens to all of us.

Almost reaching $200, currently $219

Exciting!
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Big drop in ETH, in the $250+- it might drop even more today
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SamHuynh TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, whole crypto market is being tested now. if support holds, everyone will see moon. If not, welcome new low
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@SamHuynh, I agree with your last post, Something is going to happen in the next few hours, or climb a couple of hundreds more, or a big drop

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SamHuynh TWIMARKETCAP
@TWIMARKETCAP, I think that alts will have party this weekend because of US holiday. Then next week real action will start. Right now some alts have broken out of previous high. Nevertheless, we will have a real pullback sooner or later on bitcoin (whether it will go up little more or not). After the pullback, we will have clear direction where coins will head to next few months. I start thinking alts have bottom already
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It is difficult to say, the volume in BTC is rising, but I agree with you, we still inside the triangle. Maybe we will stay at this price range (or a little lower) for some time, just like it happen in 2014. the good news is that bitcoin is being adopted and used more and more by businesses and people as time passes.
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