As time goes by, we can see some unsettlement in the crowd. On the weekend we saw 10bn of liquidated positions. See our call on the move Cubbish pressure is an internal joke of it only being a little bit BEARISH.
I have posted a few articles recently on BTC & thought I would highlight the overall sentiment.
BTC is a driver - like it or not. Much like DXY in Forex, If Bitcoin is strong then alt coins will follow (usually) until the professional money comes & stays it will always be BTC and the rest later. Now as most retail traders assume - more institutional money will drive up the price, although it's correct as it's making the overall pot bigger. It's actually a heightened risk to the average joe.
You see - institutional money is deemed smart, the top percentile, traders trading on behalf of the high net worths and so on. Much like the front of a cigarette pack, brokers warn that >75% of retail traders lose money. The reason for this, is institutional money is made by trading against the clueless. Look back at the mortgage scandal "the big short" - if it wasn't bad enough that banks were selling clients crap, they were going even further by opening shorts against the positions they were selling. A great investment if your wealth manager was investing in the funds. This happens in every market - So more big players in Crypto, yes brings an overall bigger value. But it brings professional games.
Take a look at the obvious situation in the Total market cap chart.
Then we have the Others - Anything crypto not BTC. Our indicator here shows the strength of the total market in the histogram, BTC and alts. We have clear divergence forming on the negative strength of BTC and the rising alts/total. Think of what was said above. The weekend's drop took 20% off the alts market, but not as much off BTC. What happens to alts, when the bigger drop completes for BTC??? finance.yahoo.com/news/sunday-bitcoin-flash-crash-sees-095427341.html This is the story on the value of liquidated positions.
In the shorter term (Daily) we can see a slightly different picture - this shows all the main focus (BTC,XRP,ETH) with a slow reduction in strength, marrying the stochastic situation - we can expect a slight push up near term (sucker more longs) and a deeper decline.
Let's dig a little deeper - This is BTC/DJI - a consolidation phase.
That is then supported by the slow consolidation of DXY.
This also paints a similar picture for currency pairs such as EURUSD.
See the related ideas below. I truly feel more is still to come - although we are only at a weekly 3 in Elliott terms and inside a monthly 3 as well. Strength for crypto will come, but not before breaking many more hearts and emptying wallets.
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Yesterday I was reviewing the OBV indicator on a BTC weekly chart and I was seeing a big divergence. Declining spikes in OBV, in contrast to rising spikes in BTC.
Mayfair_Ventures
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@jreyest, yes, signs of weakness on all kinds of indicators. Also some big announcements today from some larger operators such as JPM.
MW_98
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Looking across the board, I too am seeing multiple assets lining up together for the upcoming move. Crypto, Dollar, Dow...
Am I right to say what coming in short term is slight cool down and full speed to top, then mid term comes with the capitulation, and finally the long term rocketship to past the Milky Way?
Still waiting patiently for the current Wave B of bitcoin:)
Mayfair_Ventures
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@MW_98, spot on yes - in Elliott terms the ATH was a daily 5 completion. That was also a weekly 3 top (now down to 4 weekly) which is then the obvious Daily corrective top. However, that is inside the still Bullish monthly 3. So to summarise - up chasing monthly 3 which will then we a new 1-5 daily, completion of 5 weekly and only a 3 monthly. And right now - we are in an ugly 4 which should land 38-50% of wave 2-3 weekly.
MW_98
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@Mayfair_Ventures, Say I have some bad positions currently trapped and not hedged, is it wise to hedge NOW or wait for a little longer (could be in few days) the Wave B (LPSY)?
Mayfair_Ventures
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@MW_98, It's hard to give a definitive answer as it's based on your strategy, risk tolerance, mindset and a whole bunch of other things. All I can say is we are looking at currently a distribution. We might get another push up (B) and then down deeper. Hard to go into detail without specifics. Not only the position, but with other aspects of it.
MW_98
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@Mayfair_Ventures, True, even though my exposure wasn't high. But depending the depth of the dip it's more profitable to lock in losers and later buy the winners.
As for the (B), I will be watching 62.8k which is the gamma flip point. And at the moment some gamma pushing ETH to 2400 zone. Interesting days ahead!
Mayfair_Ventures
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@MW_98, yes 100% they are going to interesting for sure. If this is a true UTAD drop then I don't know if we will get as high as 62.8k on this move (never know with BTC) but I feel it's going to drop a fair bit before hitting 60k again???