Introduction Ethereum's price action has been concerning for some time now. Generally speaking the more something goes up the more of a cooling off period it needs and Ethereum has been over-performing a lot of the older crypto currencies for a while now. At the same time it has shown quite a bit of resilience compared to the Other coins and how their W patterns have played out.
W pattern Analysis The top chart shows Ethereum, Monero, bitcoin and bitcoin all with a double bottom or W. We are being a bit loose with the terminology because strictly speaking in traditional markets a double top or a double bottom is suppose to have at most a 5% difference in the lows for a double bottom and 5% difference in the tops for a double top.
Ethereum and bitcoin both set higher highs with their W patterns but the structure of their Ws was different. We can see a clear amount of white space on the Ethereum chart between the green and blue zones and that space is not present in the bitcoin chart. Bitcoin had a much tighter consolidation pattern than all the other tokens.
Monero and Litecoin basically double topped in 2021 and have been consolidating ever since. They both returned to the green zone and found support there. Monero found continued support there while Litecoin bounces and is now being potentially rejected by the green zone. That is quite a bearish set of circumstances and Litecoin is one of the least attractive looking OG coins at the moment based on that weakness.
My bais and conclusion My bias towards Ethereum is that it will return to the green zone. That is about a 80% drop from here. The chart below shows that the situation with the gaussian channel and keltern channel seems to be quite similar to the middle of the last bear market. the situation pairs well with the Log MACD situation.
For me, the main question is how much of this potential drawdown of the Ethereum ecosystem will drag down the broader crypto market. I suspect we will see lots of risk off and draw down in other crypto which will then pump due to people rotating out of the Ethereum ecosystem. while it trend sideways. There will be some pumps here and there while people take profits in eth pairings. For example, I see ETHBTC in a head and shoulders and I suspect that at each fib level people will be taking profit on ethbtc shorts and we will see bounces in ethusd when that happens. 30-40 percent bear market rallys happen all the time. I don't see the ETH ecosystem being a target of investment until it reaches the ethbtc target and then we will see strong hand come back in.
Comment
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This is the beginning of an absolutely devastating breakdown of Eth. This is a two week chart and you can see that after consolidating at the support of the wedge price has broken down.
All of the cost saving and efficacy improving protocols guaranteed the long term success of ETH with the adoption and volume trade but in the meanwhile price will be coming down.
A look at the chart shows that the previous thicket of price action lower than the W bottom is right at the -0.236 level at 45. But, before then we will probably find support around 365.
hey guhi what's up buddy , this is happening i just opened a sell position at 1750 and this is so godamn probable for crypto market to dump as hell
This_Guhy
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@mohammadhassanli, "this is so godamn probable for crypto market to dump as hell"
So it seems. I have some stuff I am going to hodl but my main intent is to have targets to buy the dip on. I suspect while ETH is consolidating for the next leg down some of it ecosystem tokens will have a last harrah with high risk reward ratios. I suspect you have a really good entry. Don't mess up the risk management.
For eth to $400 i agree but btc will not go below $15500
3809a18b5fcc49de89b212a85501ab
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what is your portfolio bag?
This_Guhy
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@3809a18b5fcc49de89b212a85501ab, My crypto holdings are predominately in XMR. For my grown up retirement account since I am bearish I asked my financial advisor for recommendations to maintain my wealth while the interest rates go up because I see a downturn in equities and my biggest bag is in a treasury money market.
The big moves in equities is easy. Crypto is the hard part.
SwallowPremium
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Such an interesting pattern, keep it up champ.
This_Guhy
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@SwallowPremium, Many thanks. This isn't really an "exciting" idea because it suggest that ETH will do what XMR and LTC did, which is go down and sideways for a long time. Potentially over a year. Traders don't really like the process of determining what zone to accumulate and invest in, they want to trade impulses.
mohammadhassanli
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i would like to ask you if it's possible please take a look at gold chart and invite us one of your masterpieces there? regards
This_Guhy
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@elhambavi, I don't have anything resembling a unique idea for gold right now. There are a lot of good tradingview authors with solid ideas on gold, and there are a lot of youtubers that have great ideas as well. And there is also a timing issue as I see gold mostly going sideways for maybe another year or so. As such it is little more than sell at the top of the keltner channel and buy on the lower half of the keltner channel.