Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
I have spent most of my afternoon reviewing my biggest trades from the last couple months to analyze my mistakes and looks for areas to improve. This is something that I am very good about doing when experiencing sub par results and something that I need to be more consistent about when I am running hot.
When I get myself into a number of trades that quickly move against me then it that can cause feeling of stress / anxiety. It can be easy to second guess your decision making process and if a losing streak occurs for long enough it can cause you to question your entire trading approach.
The way that I like to combat those feelings is through carefully analyzing trades and seeing if there are common mistakes that I continue to repeat. To do this one must focus exclusively on the process and disregard the results.
Being results oriented does not help when reviewing past trades. I don’t care if it ended up making money or losing, I want to focus on my decision making process and risk management to determine if a trade is worthy of taking on again.
After going through the process I will usually find something that is a clear mistake that will have significant impact on my results moving forward if I am able to make the necessary adjustments. That will generally make me feel very excited / motivated. Losing money on one or two trades is more than okay if it teaches me lessons that will improve my results over the next 100+ trades.
After going through the process today I must say that I am feeling very excited about the lessons that presented themselves. I have two new Sticky Notes taped to my desk that should make a big difference moving forward.
“Start with weekly chart. Use primarily stop orders. Monitor futures curve + spread.”
Have been getting whipsawed more than I would like. I believe I can minimize that by always starting with the weekly chart. Some of the worst whipsaws occured when the weekly chart was clearly indicating to stay away / wait for further confirmation.
A number of my losses / unrealized losses could have been avoided by using stop orders to enter. I have strongly preferred to use stop orders in the past but that is not what Consensio calls for. Therefore I was entering all positions will market orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. Now I am going to try and marry the two approaches, entering with primarily stop orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. This helps to ensure that market is moving in my favor before I actually get entered. This can also help avoid whipsaw by keeping me out of sideways markets.
Ugly Old Goat published another great article today. In it he discusses backwardation and how he uses an increasing spread as a signal to increase exposure. I am going to start paying more attention to contango vs backwardation by noting the percentage or dollar amount that separates each contract.
Am closely monitoring this spread right now. If BTC fails to support > $3,900 and the futures curve re enters Contango then I will be exiting all longs and looking to enter short. If BTC fails to support > $3,900, the Backwardation remains and the spread increases then I will be considering adding to my long. If spread remains roughly the same then I will maintain the same exposure. Adding would only be allowable because Consensio is signaling full entry and I only have a small position with a breakeven stop.
medium.com/@homeytel...ary-6th-7b55ae213f8c
“Pre Entry Checklist: Market, Order Type, Exposure, Leverage”
I made way too many errors entering orders before doing something about it. Now I have a pre entry checklist that I go through to ensure that I am entering the right amount, with the right order in the right market. I am sure that this won’t alleviate 100% of the mistakes but I do believe it should have a very significant impact.
Open Positions
Long: XBTM19
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC
Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Long: USDZAR
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.064 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC
Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49.
Long: USDHUF
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position
Price: $282.66
Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000)
Margin: 0.1657 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.1668 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC
Notes: I would really like to hold this position through the 200 MA due to the bullish trend, however I can’t afford to assume that much risk. Seeing an SOW from the lower high on 1/2 and am worried that support is on the verge of breaking down.
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.
Short: EURUSD
*1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position
Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Margin: 0.063 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.081 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC
Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475.
Open Orders
Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTUSD @ $4,178. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump.
Watchtower
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR.
ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r.
Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2.
ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below.
LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I would prefer to wait for close > cloud so that I can judge my risk properly.
XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div.
USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
I have spent most of my afternoon reviewing my biggest trades from the last couple months to analyze my mistakes and looks for areas to improve. This is something that I am very good about doing when experiencing sub par results and something that I need to be more consistent about when I am running hot.
When I get myself into a number of trades that quickly move against me then it that can cause feeling of stress / anxiety. It can be easy to second guess your decision making process and if a losing streak occurs for long enough it can cause you to question your entire trading approach.
The way that I like to combat those feelings is through carefully analyzing trades and seeing if there are common mistakes that I continue to repeat. To do this one must focus exclusively on the process and disregard the results.
Being results oriented does not help when reviewing past trades. I don’t care if it ended up making money or losing, I want to focus on my decision making process and risk management to determine if a trade is worthy of taking on again.
After going through the process I will usually find something that is a clear mistake that will have significant impact on my results moving forward if I am able to make the necessary adjustments. That will generally make me feel very excited / motivated. Losing money on one or two trades is more than okay if it teaches me lessons that will improve my results over the next 100+ trades.
After going through the process today I must say that I am feeling very excited about the lessons that presented themselves. I have two new Sticky Notes taped to my desk that should make a big difference moving forward.
“Start with weekly chart. Use primarily stop orders. Monitor futures curve + spread.”
Have been getting whipsawed more than I would like. I believe I can minimize that by always starting with the weekly chart. Some of the worst whipsaws occured when the weekly chart was clearly indicating to stay away / wait for further confirmation.
A number of my losses / unrealized losses could have been avoided by using stop orders to enter. I have strongly preferred to use stop orders in the past but that is not what Consensio calls for. Therefore I was entering all positions will market orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. Now I am going to try and marry the two approaches, entering with primarily stop orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. This helps to ensure that market is moving in my favor before I actually get entered. This can also help avoid whipsaw by keeping me out of sideways markets.
Ugly Old Goat published another great article today. In it he discusses backwardation and how he uses an increasing spread as a signal to increase exposure. I am going to start paying more attention to contango vs backwardation by noting the percentage or dollar amount that separates each contract.
Am closely monitoring this spread right now. If BTC fails to support > $3,900 and the futures curve re enters Contango then I will be exiting all longs and looking to enter short. If BTC fails to support > $3,900, the Backwardation remains and the spread increases then I will be considering adding to my long. If spread remains roughly the same then I will maintain the same exposure. Adding would only be allowable because Consensio is signaling full entry and I only have a small position with a breakeven stop.
medium.com/@homeytel...ary-6th-7b55ae213f8c
“Pre Entry Checklist: Market, Order Type, Exposure, Leverage”
I made way too many errors entering orders before doing something about it. Now I have a pre entry checklist that I go through to ensure that I am entering the right amount, with the right order in the right market. I am sure that this won’t alleviate 100% of the mistakes but I do believe it should have a very significant impact.
Open Positions
Long: XBTM19
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC
Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Long: USDZAR
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.064 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC
Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49.
Long: USDHUF
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position
Price: $282.66
Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000)
Margin: 0.1657 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.1668 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC
Notes: I would really like to hold this position through the 200 MA due to the bullish trend, however I can’t afford to assume that much risk. Seeing an SOW from the lower high on 1/2 and am worried that support is on the verge of breaking down.
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.
Short: EURUSD
*1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position
Price: 1.13387
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4%
Leverage: 100:1
Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000)
Margin: 0.063 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.081 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC
Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475.
Open Orders
Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTUSD @ $4,178. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump.
Watchtower
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR.
ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r.
Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2.
ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below.
LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I would prefer to wait for close > cloud so that I can judge my risk properly.
XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div.
USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/