Welcome to the second part of my thesis. This section takes a short-term view of price action. Several key factors support a +40% ETH rally in November, let's break them down:
LIQUIDITY: The past two months have delivered choppy price action. ETH repeatedly swept prior lows while failing to print higher highs. This reinforces short-term bearish sentiment, yet the long-term uptrend remains intact. Such consolidation is classic liquidity engineering in a bull market, its sole purpose is to harvest stops and shake out weak hands.
Key KPI: Record Liquidations – Over $2.1B in total crypto liquidations since September (per Coinglass), with $1.4B longs wiped in October alone—the highest two-month cascade on record. This flushed leveraged bulls and primed sideline capital. Short-term sentiment is now deeply pessimistic (Fear & Greed Index at 25), positioning the market for a mean-reversion squeeze.
I don’t expect a vertical moonshot. A steady grind of fifteen +3% days (average daily gain needed: 1.8%) compounds to +40% by month-end—entirely achievable in a low volatility breakout.
INCREASING SHORT INTEREST: Crypto is a short-horizon arena dominated by retail and algo traders. Prolonged sideways action erodes conviction, pushing participants to flip bearish out of boredom. Rising short interest creates upside liquidity pools—the market always hunts the crowd.
Key KPI: Perpetual futures funding rates flipped negative (-0.05% 8h avg on Binance/Bybit) for the first time since July, while open interest rose 12% amid flat price. Uptober bulls are capitulating; short interest hit a 3-month high (45% of OI on major exchanges). Exhaustion of sell pressure is imminent.
HIGHER LOW: ETH defended the mid October low on multiple retests, forming a clear higher low on the daily timeframe. This signals bearish momentum exhaustion, dips are now absorption zones, not breakdowns.
In summary: Extreme liquidations have cleared the runway, negative funding rates stack shorts for a squeeze, and structural higher lows prove demand dominance. November’s catalyst stack (Pectra + post-election clarity) meets a technically washed-out market. The +40% move isn’t hope, it’s probability.
LIQUIDITY: The past two months have delivered choppy price action. ETH repeatedly swept prior lows while failing to print higher highs. This reinforces short-term bearish sentiment, yet the long-term uptrend remains intact. Such consolidation is classic liquidity engineering in a bull market, its sole purpose is to harvest stops and shake out weak hands.
Key KPI: Record Liquidations – Over $2.1B in total crypto liquidations since September (per Coinglass), with $1.4B longs wiped in October alone—the highest two-month cascade on record. This flushed leveraged bulls and primed sideline capital. Short-term sentiment is now deeply pessimistic (Fear & Greed Index at 25), positioning the market for a mean-reversion squeeze.
I don’t expect a vertical moonshot. A steady grind of fifteen +3% days (average daily gain needed: 1.8%) compounds to +40% by month-end—entirely achievable in a low volatility breakout.
INCREASING SHORT INTEREST: Crypto is a short-horizon arena dominated by retail and algo traders. Prolonged sideways action erodes conviction, pushing participants to flip bearish out of boredom. Rising short interest creates upside liquidity pools—the market always hunts the crowd.
Key KPI: Perpetual futures funding rates flipped negative (-0.05% 8h avg on Binance/Bybit) for the first time since July, while open interest rose 12% amid flat price. Uptober bulls are capitulating; short interest hit a 3-month high (45% of OI on major exchanges). Exhaustion of sell pressure is imminent.
HIGHER LOW: ETH defended the mid October low on multiple retests, forming a clear higher low on the daily timeframe. This signals bearish momentum exhaustion, dips are now absorption zones, not breakdowns.
In summary: Extreme liquidations have cleared the runway, negative funding rates stack shorts for a squeeze, and structural higher lows prove demand dominance. November’s catalyst stack (Pectra + post-election clarity) meets a technically washed-out market. The +40% move isn’t hope, it’s probability.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.