On the left we can see that ETH broke a very important zone a week ago. With this, it's almost a confirmation that the bear trend for ETH is over again. Usually we do get some kind of retest before continuing the uptrend. Could be like the yellow flag on the left, or like an ABC i have drawn. This is assuming, the high is set for now (for bitcoin as well).
The possible H&S on the right, could be the cause of that. I think we have a zone now, between 160 and 170/172. For a failed H&S, we could drop now and bounce up from around 173. If we break that green support, we prob test 160ish and if that breaks, it could trigger the H&S and bring price back down towards 140/145.
Below we can see that it looks like we are moving inside of a channel. Since this movement is correctional, chances are bigger to see a break on the downside. 165/166 is where the support is at now.
So short term its a bit tricky, but think long term, we should get another wave up coming month or 2/3
Previous analysis:
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The 173 here should be 163
For a failed H&S , we could drop now and bounce up from around 173
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Same goes for ETH as i just updated for LTC, as suspected, the channel broke down and we are close to the neckline now. Since the H&S is not a very nice one, really need to see the neckline around 160 break, preferably even wait for the retest and rejection again. Volume is still a but on the low side, which is in favor of bulls for holding the neckline. So it ain't over till it's over :)
the same applies to btc, it looks nice on D1, but looking at weekly and monthly it looks more at retest and down.
botje11
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@Mariuszkrc very true, that is the whole idea actually. That if we start to drop again, giving bears confidence again in the 7k zone. Then creating an even bigger rally while using shorts as fuel. Why I want to see a drop again, see a retest again of 7000/7600 zone. To see if this move was real of fake
Mariuszkrc
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if we change the time interval to weekly, we closed below resistance, the next one closes the doji, do you think there will be a correction or are we going for a new low?
Sherem
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Thanks Botje11, always enjoy reading your take on things. I disagree with the short term outlook here, I think we are going to move significantly higher with PoS coming online and the halving around the corner
botje11
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@Sherem, Thank you :), well, don't think you need to disagree though. I see now, that my chart suggests the correction will take 2/3 months, but thats actually not intended. A correction to 140/45 would fit your chart as well, simply testing the breakout you are showing
Sherem
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@botje11, Ah, very good. That's how I took it, that it was going to take a couple months to transpire before the next wave up you were talking about.