ETHUSD Update: Consolidation breakout to 310 off of the higher low formed in the 280s. This is a bullish sign and implies further strength, with a reasonable target in the 320s.
I have been long from 298.84 for a number of days, and actually got stopped out of half of my small position after making an adjustment (this is all explained in previous reports). So I am holding onto 15% of my regular position size. And the possibility of this scenario is the reason why I did not exit my entire trade when it was consolidating in the low 290s. On the next retrace and reversal confirmation, I will look to buy back in with the expectation of a target in the 320s or 330s.
This is a tough market and is not one to get overly excited or aggressive about. @goldbug1 had it right by buying for the long term which means he would not fall victim to the erratic gyrations that are more and more frequent (check out his other alt trades too, impressive). If you zoom out and look at this market on a daily or weekly time frame, you will see price is right in the middle of a huge consolidation that may very well be a giant Wave 2. Which puts the current price action into perspective.
Any sudden price spikes, especially on low volume such as this one, are to be met with caution. With that being said, the current spike does establish a clear higher low (HL) in the low 290s area which is a bullish sign. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. So this is my justification for adding more to my current position on a retrace that meets 2 criteria: it forms above the 297 to 293 zone (minor .618 of recent bullish swing) AND I get a reversal formation such as a double bottom or pin bar on smaller time frames such as the 30 min to 1 hr respectively.
The reason why I am not painting rockets (besides the fact that I usually don't) is because if you project a price extension off of the higher low, you will see the 1.0 level is just below 330, and the 1.618 is in the 350 area. On top of the resistance zones that are present, and the context of the giant consolidation, this market is not set up to do anything spectacular in the short term in my opinion. Sure a piece of news can spark a move, but if I am going to capitalize on short term fluctuations, I want to at least have a reasonable idea of what my profit potential is, and that is why TA is so helpful. Eventually, if this market breaks above the giant consolidation, it can go up big, which is no where near happening since we are in the middle of the range at the moment, not the highs.
In summary, the current price spike does add more to the bullish argument and provides structure that not only implies further strength, but allows for a reasonable expectation of the 320s as a profit target. As long as the next retrace (if there is one) occurs above 297, I will look to add to my long as per my criteria being met. Don't lose sight of the overall context by taking some time to review larger time frames like the daily or weekly charts. Capitalizing on the constant flow of opportunities in these markets is more about managing risk, not jumping into every move. Profit is a by product of good risk management.
You have been long on ETH all throughout the previous fork and yet have not learnt your lesson. During times like this, a lot of TA is out the window for alts. B2x is going to pump BTC once again for the sake of accumulation and alts will take a dive. It is too risky to long alts in this market when holding BTC yields better ROE.
goldbug1
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@SouthWest, I disagree southwest, B2x may be the fall of BTC and ETH and BCH will benefit from this. I have spoken with a couple of code writers who feel B2x is a bad thing and they are going long with BCH and ETH. Now these are not any ordinary code writers, these are guys that will blow your mind in 2 minutes talking with them. I mean writing code for fiber optic substations for the google transmission kinda code. So I will put my confidence in them over those that have a sentimenatal attachment to BTC. Alts will run soon and it will be most likely after B2x or if something happens prior.
SouthWest
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@goldbug1, Yes B2x is bad for the BTC chain and this is exactly why one should long BTC during this time. The same was thought with BCH and BTC rallied during that time. BTG was an unnecessary coin and people used the fork and market psychology for monetary gain. Same applies with B2x. This uncertainty in the market means that people will hedge their risk by holding BTC to accumulate B2x in the case that B2X ruins BTC (the more BTC you have the more B2x). B2x wont be dumped like BTG was and its currently valued at 1,000USD (more reason to accumulate BTC to get free money).
Imo a BTC rally is imminent and alts will take another dive - during the previous fork everyone was margin short on alt/btc on finex whilst margin long btc in order to accumulate BTC for the forl - this is why alts bounced on the day of the snapshot as people closed their alt/btc shorts to get their BTC for the snapshot. This will happen again. BTC wont see a retracement will after this fork - after people are done making free money of split tokens.
goldbug1
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@SouthWest, We shall see, I'm split on BTC right now, and I will never count out a rally!! Way too sentimental!
Time will tell my friend!
SouthWest
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@goldbug1, Perhaps I may be too confident in my theory but it seems to have been working out well thus far. Lets see what happens in the next 2 weeks
pyontrader
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@goldbug1, quite often i have noticed (and also read about) how when whales want to pump an ALT, they do a small test pump beforehand to see how the market responds. On the basis of this logic, do you see the BTG fork as possibly a "test" before the storm of 2x ? Do you have any resources available to read online from your high level code writer friends? I think it would be very enlightening to gain their perpective
goldbug1
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@gved252, If you read about the JPM and Deutche bank gold and silver manipulation scandal, it will describe how larger firms do this. If you listen to the radio show we usually speak about it.
Thanks
pyontrader
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@goldbug1, by radio , are you referring to Henry Raines show?