BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
Here's a macro look at Ethereum .

On a chart:
- 2 channels: supply driven (blue), demand driven (red)
- 4 Elliott Wave counts
- 5 major support zones (red, yellow, green, blue, purple)
- 2 major resistance levels (red) R1 180, R2 380
- supply line (purple)
- fib projection/algo targets
- 100% of prev wave height (blue bars)

Recent News:
- Constantinople upgrade is postponed till ~Feb 27th, block 7280000. This is not a hard fork, there will be no chain split/new tokens.
- BTC ETF application is withdrawn, Bakkt has also been postponed.

Ethereum is in a macro down channel , making only lower highs for the past year.
There are no bullish news that could drive the price up, bearish continuation is likely, however ETH depends heavily on BTC .
There are 2 channels. we're currently testing blue channel's median line . Ethereum will continue falling in a down channel , until it is broken.
We've already broken below 61.8% retracement of the prev swing, so the next 50% upwards retracement of a bounce will be a sell.

For a bull trend to start the following needs to happen:
- D1 EMA 12,26 and W1 EMA 12,26 crosses
- close and open 1-2 bars above D1 EMA200
- breaking up of prev major break point R1 180
- the bear market will last till the last seller. No major event such as ETF or fork can change this. Bots will sell the rally after the event.

Notes:
- Ethereum is very young and fragile - there's no W1 EMA200 on a weekly to govern the trend direction, and unlike LTC, it didn't have a proper bear market with prev established market top support zone
- the price is extremely compressed towards the bottom, so fib projections may not work unless applied to percentage change instead of abs price, macro 1.618 or even 100% point to a negative price point. However, TradingView doesn't have such option.
This makes it difficult to analyze and predict Ethereum accurately.

- 12345 green/blue down trend Elliot Wave counts don't work, because fib projections don't work, so there's no point in labeling waves. Only horizontals will always work.
In a down trend wave 3 can't be the shortest, can't be just 0.618 of wave 1. We can't apply fib projections to percentages of the moves on log, so we can only call it a complex correction WXYXZ with extremely short waves.
- red ABC doesn't work for the same reasons, wave C must consist of 12345 but we can't have an extremely short/negative wave 5 or wave 3 as the shortest.
Wave A must also consist of 5 waves but the diagonal doesn't work.

Bear Targets that were already hit:
- 375-380 (-0.236 algo target, R2 major S/R, top of the yellow support zone )
- 165 (0.618 of W, -0.618 algo target)
- 86-91 (100% of (W), -0.236 algo target, 0.618 of W, median line of the green support zone ,)

There are 3 scenarios:
1. (WXY) flat upwards correction (purple) with:
- 1st target 160 (prev high, blue channel's top band, D1 EMA50),
- max target R1 180 (-0.236 algo target, supply line, D1 EMA200),
- extreme target 220 (prev high, median line of the orange resistance zone and triangle in X).
I don't think that there will be a D1 EMA50,200 golden cross, EMAs will most likely just touch then go down separately.

2. desc ABCDE triangle (orange) with bottom at 84-86 inside the blue/red channel (0.618 of red w, prev ATL , median line of the red channel) that could have an upwards fakeout but eventually breaking down with target 50-51

3. wxy zigzag down (red) in an extended wave Y, some sideways + flush down with target 50-51 ( median line of the major blue support zone , -0.236 and -0.618 algo targets, 0.618 of W, bottom band of the down channel ).

The abs bottom for Ethereum is 15 and last major support at 18 ( median line of the purple support zone )

Good Luck! Please don't trade based only on my analysis, do your own research.
Comment: We have a H4 SMA 50x200 death cross with EMAs curving down, a Swing Confirmation Point (D1 close 107.49 slightly below 107.51 prev low), price is below all MAs, we are moving in wave y of (y) down in abc fashion.
next bear targets (confluence of fib projections and algo targets):
99-100
94-95
89-90 (also median line of the red channel)

breaking 100-101 (bottom of the support zone, psychological level) will likely mean a drop to 89-90
H&S target puts us at 65

We bounced from 103 and are currently trading at 105 - median line of the blue support zone, median line of the blue channel, -0.236 algo target and H1 0.618 and 1.618 fib projections
bull targets for the bounce:
111 EMA26
115 EMA50

next major resistance: 116 (major breaking point)
Breaking 116 and EMA200 will invalidate the death cross and bearish scenario.

It will be more difficult to break 116 up once H4 EMA50 drags major EMA100, EMA200, SMA200 below this level.
A higher bounce from 89-89 (0.886 retracement, median line of the red channel, median line of green support zone) is possible.
I don't think that we will break 84 ATL - there will likely be a sideways market for the next couple of months.
In a few days we should get a weekly close confirming the down trend and an engulfing bear candle on a monthly.

Comment: Here are a few interesting pitchforks to watch - we are in the bottom half of the main green pitchfork, below the median line = very bearish
However an upwards correction inside a blue pitchfork with a retest of the top green band is still possible

Comments

Thank you for sharing your ideas and charts. Your skill and hard work is noticed and very appreciated. Of all the traders on TV your analysis, charts, and style resonates with me the most.
Reply
RagingRocketBull Archimedes_Sphere
@Archimedes_Sphere, thanks,
we're in a down trend, so we're likely to go down until the trend changes. No magic here. But don't follow anyone blindly - watch the market and develop your own skills.
Reply
We have a H4 SMA 50x200 death cross with EMAs curving down, a Swing Confirmation Point (D1 close 107.49 slightly below 107.51 prev low), price is below all MAs, we are moving in wave y of (y) down in abc fashion.
next bear targets (confluence of fib projections and algo targets):
99-100
94-95
89-90 (also median line of the red channel)

breaking 100-101 (bottom of the support zone, psychological level) will likely mean a drop to 89-90
H&S target puts us at 65

We bounced from 103 and are currently trading at 105 - median line of the blue support zone, median line of the blue channel, -0.236 algo target and H1 0.618 and 1.618 fib projections
bull targets for the bounce:
111 EMA26
115 EMA50

next major resistance: 116 (major breaking point)
Breaking 116 and EMA200 will invalidate the death cross and bearish scenario.

It will be more difficult to break 116 up once H4 EMA50 drags major EMA100, EMA200, SMA200 below this level.
A higher bounce from 89-89 (0.886 retracement, median line of the red channel, median line of green support zone) is possible.
I don't think that we will break 84 ATL - there will likely be a sideways market for the next couple of months.
In a few days we should get a weekly close confirming the down trend and an engulfing bear candle on a monthly.

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parabolic down trend on a normal scale:
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screens for reference:




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