Ethereum /USD rate (January 2022)
Okay, we got some pretty good price action movement since my last chart. So far, I don't feel like I exactly need to update my patterns, adjust positions, etc (yet.) Just wanted to post a copy of this chart on the 1D and 3D candle time frame, last chart was on the 4H candle. (Original chart)
If price of Ethereum falls out more than $2,650 during this current swing down or anytime in the next 2 months then I will definitely need to update this chart for a couple things, at least patterns and fibonacci depending on accuracy of either. My belief is that this move down will find support anywhere from $2,650 to $3,070, and even if it falls under my blue bar pattern lines, its to be expected with possible alternations to throw a curveball from the historical pattern I am considering. I just want to make sure it doesn't fall too much lower than I'd expect.
I actually almost wouldn't be surprised to see a total reset of recent 2021 progress, and a drop to $1,700-$2,000 at my 0.236 fib multiple, but that would need to be approaching worst case scenario and I don't think we are quite there yet.
My main belief right now is that most of the downside is probably done and prices will start to consolidate again. We just saw an abrupt -20% in the last 24 hours but it correlated pretty well with my last chart so I'm still feeling a little biased in my accuracy. My opinion of the time period from now in Jan 2022 to Feb 2022 is that the best case scenario low will end around my fib multiples of 0.5 ($2,754) or 0.618 ($3,073.)
I see my blue 400d moving average slowly creeping up on the price zones we have just recently re-entered. This MA currently sits at $2,642 and still rising from average momentum. I think a touch to that MA is possible but not guaranteed. If the low doesn't end on any of these values, I will honestly be just re-adjusting my idea lower and lower until volume tells us something different, or I think I see something different in general.
My fractal bar pattern (in lighter blue) shows a potential low to ~$2,840 in the current time frame but that is without any alternations. I think it's a good place to have started so I will continue to watch it.
It actually looks like the volume is showing a confirmation down, but that could also be because this move isn't done and full volume data isn't in yet too? I'm considering the day points from December 4th 2021 to Jan 7/8th 2022.
To be explicit: I believe peaks and lows that will be achieved from now until mid/late-2023 are:
Low: $110 - $400
High: $5,775 (+-9%)
This could be wrong but I’m just documenting my ideas now so I can attempt to see where I went wrong in the future. I have said it often recently but I will keep saying it, I am biased towards being bearish on bitcoin /cryptos at the moment. I don’t want to change my mind which sounds crazy right now.
Previous charts I've built coming to this conclusion:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
Okay, we got some pretty good price action movement since my last chart. So far, I don't feel like I exactly need to update my patterns, adjust positions, etc (yet.) Just wanted to post a copy of this chart on the 1D and 3D candle time frame, last chart was on the 4H candle. (Original chart)
If price of Ethereum falls out more than $2,650 during this current swing down or anytime in the next 2 months then I will definitely need to update this chart for a couple things, at least patterns and fibonacci depending on accuracy of either. My belief is that this move down will find support anywhere from $2,650 to $3,070, and even if it falls under my blue bar pattern lines, its to be expected with possible alternations to throw a curveball from the historical pattern I am considering. I just want to make sure it doesn't fall too much lower than I'd expect.
I actually almost wouldn't be surprised to see a total reset of recent 2021 progress, and a drop to $1,700-$2,000 at my 0.236 fib multiple, but that would need to be approaching worst case scenario and I don't think we are quite there yet.
My main belief right now is that most of the downside is probably done and prices will start to consolidate again. We just saw an abrupt -20% in the last 24 hours but it correlated pretty well with my last chart so I'm still feeling a little biased in my accuracy. My opinion of the time period from now in Jan 2022 to Feb 2022 is that the best case scenario low will end around my fib multiples of 0.5 ($2,754) or 0.618 ($3,073.)
I see my blue 400d moving average slowly creeping up on the price zones we have just recently re-entered. This MA currently sits at $2,642 and still rising from average momentum. I think a touch to that MA is possible but not guaranteed. If the low doesn't end on any of these values, I will honestly be just re-adjusting my idea lower and lower until volume tells us something different, or I think I see something different in general.
My fractal bar pattern (in lighter blue) shows a potential low to ~$2,840 in the current time frame but that is without any alternations. I think it's a good place to have started so I will continue to watch it.
It actually looks like the volume is showing a confirmation down, but that could also be because this move isn't done and full volume data isn't in yet too? I'm considering the day points from December 4th 2021 to Jan 7/8th 2022.
To be explicit: I believe peaks and lows that will be achieved from now until mid/late-2023 are:
Low: $110 - $400
High: $5,775 (+-9%)
This could be wrong but I’m just documenting my ideas now so I can attempt to see where I went wrong in the future. I have said it often recently but I will keep saying it, I am biased towards being bearish on bitcoin /cryptos at the moment. I don’t want to change my mind which sounds crazy right now.
Previous charts I've built coming to this conclusion:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
