ETHUSD Rolling Over and Rounded Bottom Support

First things first will be why we are going to see ETHUSD going short for the next month or so and that prediction is based off the hidden divergence off the Hull MACD signal line compared to the price action, RSI, and normal MACD (I have been mentioning that in my last post for BTCUSD as well). Normally I like to see the bearish divergence build up for a bit longer on whatever timeframe I am looking at (blue arrow on the H-MACD Chart), but it is clearly the bearish divergence and we see the final oscillation of the H-MACD is a very weak and low in amplitude.

And that brings the convergence we see on the normal MACD and the RSI rolling over, which would suggest a price drop by those workhorse indicators
We can also see that we have been rounding off the bottom, with progressively flatter support lines in black and progressively flatter resistance lines in orange, green and blue. The orange line was our first resistance line and we see at the end it showed us where the price would go when it hit bottom July 28. Once the orange line was invalidated as resistance we passed over to the green line, which gives us our targets for this dump which leads us to some interesting IF THEN statements if the price action behaves the same with the green line as it did for the orange.

IF ethusd is moving sideways before recovering THEN it will find the first black line as support. IF ethusd is establishing a new low then the second black line is our support. We may also see ethusd hit one support, break through and then hit the other on the way down.

We see the price landed before the orange line intercepted the support (red arrow on the price chart) and so I would expect the price to land before the orange reaches support. Also, I picked 357 as the target for the new low based off the S2 Fibonacci support (calculated by Trading view).
And as a disclaimer I entered my short position a little too soon with my stop-losses a little to tight and I got wicked out when ethusd went to 495 and I had to reopen my shorts. On one hand I feel I am now shorting from what I feel is the very top of this upswing but you could see how I would really want it to go down (to get that money back) could bias me. This is not financial advice, so forth and so on, as I don’t see anyone using the h-macd and I have been making this system as I go.

Comment:

Well, we have slipped $15 since I made my post and I still think we are good for at least another $60 by the time this drop is done. Hope you guys are in the money with me

Comment:

It doens't get much better than this for calling a dump and having it come true.
We are deep into oversold territory on the hourly chart and I am sure we will see a bearish continuation pattern develop that if you were late to the game you could play to get a good entry price. In case this is as far as we go make sure you only put your order on when you see that bearish continuation pattern and you play it textbook (rising wedge, symmetrical triangle, if you need to know how to play those, go to investopedia.

I am over 90% positive we will be going down for at least another day, maybe 2 with significant percentage points in the negative and I suspect we might see a -10% day or greater coming up. Either get your price targets from someone better than me at setting targets, or trail your stop losses down like a muggle as I do.

I have mentioned in the past I like 2D chart because they help filter out some of the daily noise and we see we are looking at a good 8 days of blood in the streets

We also see a devastating failed bullish cross on the 2D MACD which is why it needs to be said over and over again, the MACD is a better indicator of when to short than when to long.

Finally, if we look at the price action with the Hull MACD together we can see just how weak and dubious this uptrend was. The end points of the trend angles don't achor to the candles so the degrees will change depending on how you scale your y-axis but clearly this uptrend was much weaker than the upswing in April. The Hull MAC also had no where near the bullishness in the oscillation on the way up.

We should see the next leg down within 2H as the RSI clears up on the lower time frames so get ready for another leg down.

Comment:

The break on that symetrical triangle was a bit lack luster but the next leg down should pick up speed with the next 45-90-135 minutes as the hull MACD bearish cross hopefully causes the normal MACD to cross, first on the 45 then on the more common time frame (1h, then 2h)

It would be typical for this thing to dump right about midnight UTC. Don't be surprised if we see another wick drawing leveraged longs in before we dump again. Old support becomes new resistance so you can move your stops down when we get a clearer picture on how this drops.

Once again this isn't advice, just an advanced method of reading chicken bones.