ETHUSD update: Higher low established at the 610 level while price works its way into the next resistance zone. There are countless scenarios that can unfold from this point, but in this report I am going to evaluate two that we are more likely to see in light of the most recent price action.
At the moment, price is hesitating just under the .618 resistance area relevant to the most recent minor bearish swing. In a more balanced market, this lower high would be more of a bearish sign, but in light of the current euphoria and clear 4 leg impulse wave, this price action will most likely lead to more of a consolidation followed by a new high. The level I am watching for a reversal to go long is the 648 to 631 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish swing. A bullish reversal here, OR a retest of the 610 low can offer attractive short term buying opportunities IF the risk is justified by the structure.
IF price happens to correct further (remember ANYTHING is possible), the 568 level would be the next area to look for reversals because it is the 1.0 extension projected from the 712 high. This level would be the completion point of a zig zag formation where price is more likely to begin its next leg up to retest the 760 high.
As far as highs go, IF price breaks above the 730 area, it is then more likely to retest the 760 high and beyond. 796 is the upper boundary of the reversal zone which means price can push to a new high and fail to follow through BUT since euphoria still rules these markets, it is likely to test the 815 level which is a 1.618 extension measured from a low on the weekly chart (explained in previous report). This is a good price to lock in SOME profit if the market offers the opportunity. These are not levels to go short.
This is a short term swing trading strategy which has clearly defined rules, criteria and procedures that govern every aspect of the decision making process. The predetermined targets compensate you for the proportionate risk you had to take, and offer clear opportunities to lock in SOME profit. Short term trading and investing are two separate mindsets and each have their own subset of techniques, strengths and weaknesses. The market environment and your own unique financial situation further determine which mindset is a better choice.
Your effort in any market should begin with one of these mindsets. Some markets are investing markets, while others are better for trading all while the environment is shifting between the two. Strongly trending markets like the coins at the moment are showing better results for longer term holders, but when they correct (eventually they will) investors will stagnate while traders capitalize on the movements. Learn to separate the mindsets. That is what trading around a core position is all about.
In summary, market conditions are always changing. Right now everyone is expecting dramatic new highs because the market is rewarding such unrealistic views. Reality does not mean "sell off", it means that prices will spend more time in ranges rather than moving 30%+ per day or week. While BTC makes new all time highs, the alts take a breather and vice versa as money is flowing in and out of these coins. This market is likely to trade in a range between the 650 and 730 areas until the next attempt for the highs. Remember anyone can call a straight up market, learn to separate yourself from the impulse and hype surrounding these coins because when the weak hands get shaken out, that is when skill pays off the most.
I really like your analysis @MarcPMarkets I have the same :)
Amit26
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Thanks for the analysis, @MarcPMarkets , Very well done
money78
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I've been waiting for BTC to correct from 10k to 6k, 7k I thought I will be smart to stay away from all the FOMO and now BTC is going to hit 20k any time and then maybe 25K or 30k...I'm just pissed a little bit for being rational and cautious!
kargs
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@money78, you shouldn't be. BTC simply is not giving any acceptable risk/reward ratio at this moment. You can always create a gambling budget and just get in accepting this is going to be a lottery, and maybe you win. But it should be a small fraction of your budget you can afford to loose. Otherwise you can get burnt real hard.