ETHUSD downtrend expected to continue

KRAKEN:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETH failed to close above the daily 50EMA, which is also close to the downtrend line formed since August 2018. Volume is also not significant and I believe the bears will try to test the december lows at 80$.

On the bull case, a significant increase in volume and a succesful close above the daily 50EMA might send ETH to test the previous local high at around 160$, but I find this a less probable scenario.

Happy Trading

your line broke.... bullish yet?
cryptocharter4lyfe ScottWilhelmsen
@ScottWilhelmsen, his scale is linear, and on log, it's still not past the August resistance, that's around $147. Nor have we passed beyond EMA(50). More importantly though, we hit the resistance line unpassed from the May 2018's $800 range, and that's when we immediately hammered down. That's around $128. So I don't think that there's anything particularly bullish, other than the fact we dropped 90%. There's a bear div on the 4H. Last time we had a bear div, price dropped from $150 to $117
+1 Reply
ScottWilhelmsen cryptocharter4lyfe
@cryptocharter4lyfe, good points indeed, however seems like all the alts are following Bitcoin and thus one should consider the TA on bitcoin as well. Chart is fairly neutral atm, but a breakout up or down on the bitcoin charts would help confirm the direction ETH will go.
+1 Reply
Stricken ScottWilhelmsen
@ScottWilhelmsen, I'm still quite bearish. The 50EMA was pierced and the bigger upper trendline was touched but it was immediately rejected, these are bearish signs. As you mention, Bitcoin will move the market as a whole and right now there is a huge bear pennant on the weekly chart which should target the 2200-1800 usd range
cryptocharter4lyfe ScottWilhelmsen
@ScottWilhelmsen, I've charted bitcoin since 2011, but I don't publish the chart I use. It has a similar picture, but looks even more bearish. Bear flag towards about $1500 to be conservative.

Bitcoin ATH's are about every 4 years 2 weeks. NOV 29, 2013 to DEC 15, 2017. The lows, they were around Jan 28, 2015 were 14 months after the high. Basically, by Feb 28/ MAR 1, we should know for sure if the bear market is stronger than the bull market, if we don't see it sooner.
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