ETH/USD Possible Scenario leading up to Constantinople and After

BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
Looking for a confirmation on a short play on the 4hr ETH/USD chart.

For confirmation we need a short term uptrend from now to 15 Jan to validate this short play (At least $5+ in price action terms - depending on your exchange).

I would ladder shorts very widely (with the hype train in mind) all the way up from $129.50-$146 and set a stop at the $147-$150 range, depending on your leverage and how comfortable you are with the play.

Note there is a major overbearing downward trendline at the $150 price range (on Bitmex) on Constantinople day - ETH has never broken this bearish downtrend line since it started in August 2018 (purple line) - you could set laddered shorts up to $150 and stops at $151 if you are feeling adventurous, giving you an extra barrier between the play.

Constantinople & the following Anticlimax
  • Constantinople day is marked between purple vertical horizontal lines.
  • Anticlimax effect: The Constantinople update will likely be an anticlimax and forgotten the day after, as this is a blockchain upgrade which Joe & Jane won't notice - it won't make them rich or change lives which is often the expectation.
  • An anticlimax could cause a faster dump than possible, as this is crypto.

More T.A Notes from the chart
  • The MACD is trending short term bullish for an uptrend which would confirm this is in play
  • The RSI is on the border of oversold territory, leaning towards an uptrend that would confirm this play
  • A Fibonacci Retracement to above the .618 level and back down is this whole play
  • This looks like a loose head and shoulders (which are always suspicious and loose as hell anyway - I don't like them - but there's one here)
  • An Elliott Impulse wave of 1,2,3,4,5 based around the Fib levels and approx. $130 price resistance level would also fit here
  • Volume has lowered on the 4hr but is still quite consistent on the volume Moving Average
  • We need volume to increase on the 4hr for this move to play out

Please note I have been watching ETH/USD during Constantinople hype and called the recent drop correctly here:

Comment: Volume has increased considerably on the current 4hr candle compared to the last two, iving a move some conviction. MACD & signal also looking good for a move move upwards, histogram is anticipating a move upwards. RSI is in a neutral zone but on the move.

Comment: We've had a drop, waiting for a confirmed bounce back up to just about where consolidation started now for wave (2) Possibly slightly below the red zone or right on it/ever so slightly above it. Then a downtrend wave (3) is where I will enter a short.
Comment: Target is blue box for shorts
Trade active: Currently in a long scalp.

Possible to play this like a savage, long & short.

Long stops are set in profit.
Comment: A quick look at the 1 hour this is dangerous for leveraged shorters shorting from the $115 level, a retracement upwards can catch a trip to rekt city very quickly.

That said - my long scalp from the $113 level is set at a stop in profit at mid $114 level. Always cautious.

Comment: A quick look at BitMEX in real time.

Looking at the bounce from $113-$115, seems traders are happy to accumulate the long scalp play in the $115's now.
Comment: In the $117.5 area, long scalp from the $113's paying off well.

Very safely in profit on the stop now.

Ice cold move so far.
Comment: I've higher the stops into more profit on the long scalp, SEEMS like it has less push to go higher now.

Even though the histogram is bullish and the RSI is heading towards oversold at this point, the volume has dropped, giving the move less conviction.

On the 1hr there could also be another consolidation level forming.

There could actually be another wave down here, as well as a chance of continuing upwards. But I'm safely in profit on stops in case of that.

Good action on ETH/USD though!

Comment: I am still in my long with a stop well in profit.

Signal is bullish
Histogram is neutral for 3 hours
Volume all over the place
No clear trend

This is inconsistent currently, I'm not sure if it will make my shorting zone (in blue) or not, if I wasn't in profit with a chance of more I would get out and wait for a clear break either way.

This could be the beginnings of a retracement up, or another wave down.

Comment: ETH hasn't spent much time here, every entry & exit has been quite dramatic with price action.

Still in my long with stops set, this has been good to watch.

Comment: Taken very good profit on the long scalp.

This has played out so far and we hit wave (2) and my original shorting zone.

Trade closed manually: I've taken a scalp on the short that this hit. Taking another look, constantinople not far away.

What I'm looking at is the overbearing $150 downwards trendline on constantinople day and how bullish the signal is on the 4hr, so I'm going to look at resetting my sell orders (possibly higher than the bottom of the red zone) after more analysis.
Comment: Got in that long as low as the $113s, sold up to $131.
Comment: I'm considering shorting ETH in the $140-$150 range now instead of starting in the low $130's.

I'm out for the moment - no trades but I do have some high $140s sell orders and a stop set at $151 range in case of ETH breaking the trendline.
Comment: This chart has been very accurate so far.
After that drop my target for laddered shorts has come down a little to here (as if it was the same chart as above) - cautiously scalping this long up there too.

The fib line is still .618 but lowered due to the drop.

Now 116 is this normal?
+1 Reply
stevenslicer cardan6006
@cardan6006, yes, watch for the same or similar bounce back up the fib line to confirm this play - be careful shorting as is... wait for a bounce up.
+1 Reply
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