For confirmation we need a short term uptrend from now to 15 Jan to validate this short play (At least $5+ in price action terms - depending on your exchange).
I would ladder shorts very widely (with the hype train in mind) all the way up from $129.50-$146 and set a stop at the $147-$150 range, depending on your leverage and how comfortable you are with the play.
Note there is a major overbearing downward at the $150 price range (on Bitmex) on Constantinople day - ETH has never broken this downtrend line since it started in August 2018 (purple line) - you could set laddered shorts up to $150 and stops at $151 if you are feeling adventurous, giving you an extra barrier between the play.
Constantinople & the following Anticlimax
- Constantinople day is marked between purple vertical horizontal lines.
- Anticlimax effect: The Constantinople update will likely be an anticlimax and forgotten the day after, as this is a blockchain upgrade which Joe & Jane won't notice - it won't make them rich or change lives which is often the expectation.
- An anticlimax could cause a faster dump than possible, as this is crypto.
More T.A Notes from the chart
- The is trending short term for an uptrend which would confirm this is in play
- The is on the border of oversold territory, leaning towards an uptrend that would confirm this play
- A to above the .618 level and back down is this whole play
- This looks like a loose (which are always suspicious and loose as hell anyway - I don't like them - but there's one here)
- An Impulse wave of 1,2,3,4,5 based around the Fib levels and approx. $130 price would also fit here
- Volume has lowered on the 4hr but is still quite consistent on the Moving Average
- We need to increase on the 4hr for this move to play out
Please note I have been watching ETH/USD during Constantinople hype and called the recent drop correctly here:
Possible to play this like a savage, long & short.
Long stops are set in profit.
That said - my long scalp from the $113 level is set at a stop in profit at mid $114 level. Always cautious.
Looking at the bounce from $113-$115, seems traders are happy to accumulate the long scalp play in the $115's now.
Very safely in profit on the stop now.
Ice cold move so far.
Even though the histogram is bullish and the RSI is heading towards oversold at this point, the volume has dropped, giving the move less conviction.
On the 1hr there could also be another consolidation level forming.
There could actually be another wave down here, as well as a chance of continuing upwards. But I'm safely in profit on stops in case of that.
Good action on ETH/USD though!
Signal is bullish
Histogram is neutral for 3 hours
Volume all over the place
No clear trend
This is inconsistent currently, I'm not sure if it will make my shorting zone (in blue) or not, if I wasn't in profit with a chance of more I would get out and wait for a clear break either way.
This could be the beginnings of a retracement up, or another wave down.
Still in my long with stops set, this has been good to watch.
This has played out so far and we hit wave (2) and my original shorting zone.
What I'm looking at is the overbearing $150 downwards trendline on constantinople day and how bullish the signal is on the 4hr, so I'm going to look at resetting my sell orders (possibly higher than the bottom of the red zone) after more analysis.
I'm out for the moment - no trades but I do have some high $140s sell orders and a stop set at $151 range in case of ETH breaking the trendline.