ETH has moved to the upside of POC and looks a good short from here to the upper trendline. I'm laddering in.
Invalidation would be a break to the upside 4hr candle close above the trendline.
Not advice.
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Trendline break is a fake-out.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Price has drifted and I've closed this trade for now. If price backs off then I'll look again
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I'm laddering into ETH again. It looks done or nearly done. I put too much emphasis on BTC pennant, but really its just the same fibs and regression from BTC yet again.
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Not advice.
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I'm going to hold on to my shorts here. See thread for details.
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AS long as price remains below $2890, upward price action is regressive. Price currently around 0.786 area, liikely to stall around here.
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Market movers want to wriggle you out of your shorts = HODL!
Thanks for sharing. For my education how would you normally ladder the trade up all the way to the trend line? In $50 increments? Also do you have a trade target in mind? Or would you ladder out also and if so from what point? What would be best case target before you'd exit or would it be based on BTC? Sorry for the questions, just trying to build understanding before I consider any sort of short trading and you seem to know what you're doing.
dRends35
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@gavincamilleri, Well firstly I'd recommend doing your due diligence before even considering taking a short which can be much more risky than a long. If you're unsure about what I'm doing then it may be best to just watch and spend time learning. That said if your TA brings you to a similar conclusion to mine, then a best case for a swing trade could be a 1:1 target of 1.15K. Yes I stagger in increments, but on exit if its a capitulation I'll exit manually looking at fib, support and BTC.
gavincamilleri
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@dRends35, thanks. Just watching and learning. My TA’s not too bad when it going up and figuring fib entry /exit points etc. I keep an eye on many timeframes, always with a view to what BTC is doing. I’ve got an eye for patterns and use volume, macd, RSI and stoch RSI. I’m better on shorter timeframes of 1-2 weeks but not so good at detecting when it’s a real reversal vs fake out. I don’t buy that it’s Wkykoff distribution over 3-4 months followed by 10-14 day Wykoff accumulation. Seems much more likely that accumulation would take several months so or we just need to go down to get some momentum again. Lots of people so certain and aggressive that it’s going back up makes me super skeptical.I learned a lot in the 2017-18 market. Gains and losses taught me to be cautious. The charts tell me down but instinct tells me we aren’t done with the cycle. I lean more towards a longer cycle like 13/14 with a peak of $100-200k mid 2022. Thanks for the reply.
@dRends35, Hey again. Do you consider the last 4 hour candle as a close above the trend line or would you be looking for either the full body of the candle closed above the trend line or even confirmation via retest of the upper trendline as support? Thanks for any reply, in advance.
dRends35
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@gavincamilleri, Its really about duration and less about the time stamp. If you look price was outside for on.y 1.5 hour.
sparshd610
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Hi @dRends35 would you say the trend is now invalidated, given that 2 4H candles have (almost) closed above the trendline? Or does the larger downtrend still hold and its safe to short in your opinion?