Been using this fractal for a while, finally going to publish it. Both of these structure moves have ~70% retraces with Ethereum's being bigger. Historically Crypto doesn't do more than 80% on it's pumps and dumps before they bottom out. Even ripple, the king of the mega retrace, only does about 70% or so. Dash, 72% dump. etc. etc.
What I like is how this is a falling market, slowly quickening into euphoria with the dumps and the slope of the bleed becoming steeper and steeper. I like this setup. I don't like the lack of capitulation volume.
Either way, it's at a mighty discount. Load up the bags. Target is the $220-250 range.
Some other supporting charts:
Falling wedge going to capitulation. I suppose $80 target is support too, but I think it's too much to go in one leg and won't be tested.
ETHBTC pair landing on a higher high here would be very nice. Structure support around 0.062 as well.
Trade active
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Bags loaded, let's go.
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Not a bad place to scale out a bit and take profits.
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Orderblock didn't quite get hit on Bitfinex, though GDAX went to $130 which is quite a bit deeper. It ALMOST manage to get there but not quite.
Not a bad bounce from that either.
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$220 target getting hit. SELL MOAR. Bounce going very nicely.
Trade closed: target reached
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Target hit, bear trendline touched. Consolidate now for a few days probably. Unclear on what's next.
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Really extended up here... I have this itch I can't get past that we're just bull trapping everyone up here. Only reason is the 2013 bitcoin fractal. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
In equities 88.6% is a awesome retracement level. I support your area around 115~. Am interested to see the development.
speracado
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@speracado, sorry here misclicked retrace, silly magnet mode.
joeltothemoon
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There are too many bullish news up ahead for Ethereum for this to play out. I mean, two years in bear trend?
I just don't see it happening.
cordilex
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so sell time?
lowstrife
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@cordilex, The price is exactly double what it was when I published this chart... so if you entered down there, yeah 2x ain't a bad place to take profits. Profit is profit, can't be mad at that.
inb4 new ATH's in 2 days
Enhancement321
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@lowstrife, I know you mention 2013, and your call on ETH last month was incredible. But are not the market conditions quite different in 2017 compared to 2013? Or am I missing somethinh? Props to you for your great analysis.
asd4911574
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When you see a micro-blog account that releases your analysis, focus on your Sina, micro-blog! I hope to follow the trend analysis of BTC more, thank you!