This is an improved version of my last idea about ETH. This time it's on the weekly line chart to reduce noise.
The target is a bit higher this time ($700-$750). But you should consider that this pattern contains a lot of noise even with this improved version.
Multiple weekly close above $1900 would invalidate this. Personally, even one weekly close above it will make me to start feeling bullish about ETH.
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We have a dangerous parabolic down trend on the 4h chart. Let's see if this is the rejection.
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Here is the 4h view:
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BTC looks good. We'll see if it's enough to invalidate this. I think a visit to 25k-27k range is completely reasonable.
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Incredible sell pressure on NASDAQ. We gonna find out soon i guess.
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1h chart looks like a redistribution:
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And here is the update to 4H view:
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BREAKING: ETH
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1h update:
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I see bearish things about ETH on all timeframes. Merge narrative (A seven years old news) pushed ETH from $900 to $2000. It can easily lead the market downward just like it did upward.
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1h update:
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If you think "It's down too much." No, bears are playing well so far. Just remember ETH was below $900 3 months ago. Everyone knew very well the merge was going to happen back then. So don't be surprised. Trade the pattern.
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I'd expect big sells around here. But since we don't have them (yet), we might have a bounce.
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A bounce I wouldn't trade.
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Bounce is still too weak. It's still at that point you can't trade.
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Not a bad bounce. I think if ETH can hold it above 1500 for a while, it might have chance. Otherwise, continuation might be aggressive.
This is also some kind of distribution pattern. Even a UTAD is possible of course(~2100). But that would probably make this pattern invalid.
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My first target hit ~1350.
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~1250 is a big level. It's the range that this really is built upon. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 1300 quickly and try to touch 1250.
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I'm considering taking a long as a hedge ~1300
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Let's see if this little parabolic trend ends with blood or bounce:
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eth/btc is dumping hard. it's another interesting chart. some kind of distribution. Imagine BTC holds 17k but ETH goes to 700-750. Is it too crazy?
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Blood it is.
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I think it's bounce time. Expecting a spike above 1500.
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I'm not convinced that this movement will be the next leg down for BTC yet. I think 17k-18k will hold. And if it does, we get a good bounce, this will look like a nice accumulation range. That's the interesting part. In that case, BTC will lead the market for a long time. So I think current trade is get a BTC long as close as possible 18k and hope it holds.
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I think BTC will leave the bottom fast. No matter if it's just a correction, another zic-zac, or the real rally start. The possibility of this being the real bottom should create some thrust.
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I guess we'll stretch 18k more. More is better as long as it holds.
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I think if BTC survives today's FOMC we might see a start of a rally. BTC is in a chop mode for the last 3 months. BTC.D is at a big support. Really the only thing that worries me about the market is this ETH pattern. Not even macro. And NASDAQ is bearish TA-wise.
It's weird that the only thing I'm bullish about is BTC. Maybe BTC will just chop further while ETH goes to ~700. Maybe BTC will hold while everything else including US markets goes down.
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This weird channel on the 4h chart makes me think another big stop hunt move might be close:
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Zoomed in version:
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A fakeout followed by a rejection. Sure it looks bad but I feel like eventually this weird thing will break up not down.
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One of those moves that is not made by retail 100%.
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I'm not surprised at all with BTC holding around here. But ETH should not. if ETH keeps holding, I'll doubt about BTC too. I wanna see ETH breaking down while BTC holding.
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I'm still expecting big scam pump before the next leg.
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Trading is straightforward sometimes. If it loses 1200, it's bad.
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Maybe, one little spike above 1500 might be enough:
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We have pressure, let's see.
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This is starting to feel like market is pretending "holding". Too long chop and dump.
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I think today might be an important day. Or tomorrow. DXY is so close to a resistance in my chart.
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Wow DXY is going crazy. Maybe we will see a blow-off top.
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Pound crashed while everyone was waiting crypto to crash lol. Interesting times.
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I really am ready to start feeling bullish about crypto but I wanna see BTC gaining strength not shitcoins.
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BTC might wanna fill this triangle:
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I think 20.600-21.000 is the big resistance. Bullish if can hold above. My target will be ~27k if we break the above structure.
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I still consider this move as a liquidity hunt although I'm neutral about BTC for now. But I am bearish about US markets. I'm bearish about the last rally leader ETH. So in general I'm bearish about the market.
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Things are looking bad. Maybe this little hopium will be enough for the next leg down.
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Maybe this is the part that we think it's down too much but it keeps going down.
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Should this scam line hold eth? At the previous ath possibly? Maybe. But the pattern is better for me. It's the maximum fear. Just imagine the sentiment when eth hits $700. Imagine how everyone will believe eth is going to $500, $300 or even zero lol.
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And the chart above is a monthly chart. We can easily hit $700 but close the month above the scam line.
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I've seen this thing many times during this bear market. Often ends very badly. Faking a trend reversal with great pressure to the downside.
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Hourly looks like an accumulation range now. Closed shorts just in case.
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I don't care about an hourly accumulation in a bear market. But this is not a place to take shorts. Might be good a place to take profit if you are in a good short. Maybe refill later. It's a 10 days range.
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I just refilled at $1330 with ~$1350 stop loss. Another just in case trade. 3% higher than my last tp.
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My short survived for now. Not sure what to think about this bounce for now. Might be the first leg of a big one.
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I think it's going up for now. I'll dca short 1500-1600 if I can.
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Hmm?
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Feels like market needs a big scamp pump but US markets won't allow it lol.
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What a chop.
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Too much jebait too much chop. I think it should come down one more time even if it's gonna pump.
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Next move is going to be big. That's all we can say right now. Great effort to get rid of the inexpreinced trader or the gambler.
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Wanna long 1270-1250? I guess I don't:
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Closed the day above the support. Gotta say I'm impressed by this effort. But... Idk I can't get rid of my strong bearish bias.
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I've tried to find a counter argument to the bullish range above in the same timeframe. This is all I can come up with. A rounding top. But I think at least one more confirmation is needed to take this seriously:
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I've just realized calling this rounding top is ridiculous. Because it's not a top. It is a bottom lol. But you know, this is the inverse of what we want to see. Ideally, we wanna see "dump->hold->fake breakdown->reclaim the hold level->consolidate->send". This often creates a rounding bottom. This makes people "Omg we've lost the support." But at this bottom price first made a low, bounced and created a lower low shortly after. Then created the range. I think this doesn't make the same effect on retail. People probably be like "Oh we bounced quickly from a support and holding now, so i should hold." Idk just my chain of thoughts lol.
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Let's see:
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It's a fight:
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If bears lose this on eth, I'll focus on this possibility on btc. If bears lose this too, then yes rally confirmed for me:
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Hmm, i like this as a bear :D let's see what others think here:
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Ok i think bears are losing this right now lol. I'll just focus on BTC for a while:
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c'mon send it :D i am sick of this chop.
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btc is almost there:
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I'll short 1420 if it comes. See if i can take some profit and move my break-even higher so i can build a good position.
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Shorting a range breakout might be a bad idea but:
1. Inverted adam and eve pattern on eth. 2. Descending triangle pattern on btc. 3. I don't believe that the FED will pivot yet. 4. Sentiment is still turning positive quickly. I don't believe markets suffered enough.
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eth/btc is another descending triangle:
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On the low timeframe i'm expecting a little pullback and continuation:
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This slow movement is not bad news for bulls tho. It makes it super hard to degen long. Trapping shorters constantly because the sentiment is still generally bearish etc. It's slow for now tho. We'll see how the next move is gonna be.
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Update:
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Another short idea. 12 week ema (currently ~1490):
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Shorting that would look like this on the daily chart. Good? Idk depends on how bearish you are :D
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~1490 is also 0.5 correction of the last uncorrected dump. And my first short target ~1420 is 0.382. Now that's interesting.
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eth/btc is trying. it doesn't look bad (yet). If this breaks up, I'm gonna reconsider my short targets:
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We know that this market fakes the fake of the fake tho. So at first eth/btc breakout will mean nothing to me. If;
1. Breakout with great strength. Leaves everyone behind, 2. Consolidates above the support for some time and breakout again,
Then yes, you wanna be on eth's side against btc.
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ETH/BTC update:
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BTC update and a bearish case:
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Why not? I'd like to see something like this to call it a decisive bear victory:
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On the other hand, ETH/BTC is consolidating nicely. Facts:
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That's it. I'm bullish about ETH/BTC. There is nothing to be bearish about this right now:
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And i've canceled my short orders around 1420. I'll keep the orders around 1490 for now.
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I stay positive about short-term in spite of this :D
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Look ETH/BTC it's still beautiful:
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ETH/BTC still beautiful:
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Why do I care so much about ETH/BTC? Because when ETH was at retest around 1800 I said that ETH will lead the market downwards. And it did. Now if ETH/BTC shows strength that could mean either we are in a correction to the upside or it's a big trend reversal.
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It's really hard to ignore all of the negative posts and everything on social media right now lol. Considering the state of the US markets, yes there is a risk obviously and thus i am not taking a long position but I am certainly not expecting a crash. Even if it's gonna happen I'd like to see a clear redist. pattern at this point.
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I took a small long but it's one of my just in case trades, nothing serious :D
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ETH/BTC still beautiful btw. Someone is buying eth that's for sure. Someone not retail.
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This is how you play it right if you are a bear, imo:
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And if you are a fan of rsi divs, here is a good one on the hourly chart:
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Aaand it's gone wow lmao. Ok we got some bears.
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Is this a redistribution? No.
Did we test the descending triangle? No.
Did the markup and markdown leader ETH, make a 0.5 correction after such a long trade range at the bottom? No.
Is the sentiment bearish? Yes.
No further questions.
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I just closed my eyes to the news and bought the dip a lil bit. Let's see if my TA tells the truth.
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Play like this and i am with you bears :D
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We can also talk about a bear flag on the daily but I want another confirmation :D
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ETH/BTC still good, consolidation:
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Layers of consolidation. I wish i could long ETH/BTC without buying both coins :D Although I am bearish about it mid-term/long-term.
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I am still long and I intend to keep it until the market proves me wrong.
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Ok now it's doing something ugly. But it's too early to talk about the next move:
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Update. We are testing this bearish pennant .ETH/BTC has a failed rally on the hourly chart. I still insist on my expectation. I say "Not yet".
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Ok the pennant is broken. Fake breakdown is better than a perfect bounce:
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Now the market has the chance and the reason to dump. Let's see if they will.
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Failed rally led to a breakdown on ETH/BTC. It's still bullish if it can hold the range tho:
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Not a good pattern:
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I'm still long but losing confidence honestly. Have a stop loss on break-even price below 1250.
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More on low timeframe. I think this is a decision point. It has to choose on of the channels to enter:
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I mean look at this. This is like loosing the last hope, with a failed retest:
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On the other hand, if it runs some stops below 1250 and then comes back into the range, i'll probably market long.
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ETH/BTC is trying to reclaim the range.It's kinda amazing that it found support at the point that my rounding trend intersected with the range low.
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ETH/BTC update. It'd be nice if ETH can hold around 1300 until the CPI data today.
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It looks kinda sad on this view honestly. But it's early to talk:
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I got out with some profit @1296. I think we'll test some lows. I'll look for a good entry.
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I wanna see a couple of hourly closes above 1310. Or I'll try to long range low.
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CPI data is bad. It got rejected from the broken pennant. NASDAQ has at least 3-4% room downside in my view. So I thought why not a range low test at least.
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The moment you see something like this, go all in. Forget about the FED forget about this Adam and Eve pattern. Forget the bears. Long it. Put a stop loss slightly below the range and wait.
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... Because this is one hell of a range right now. Something you should not underestimate.
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If you think this is not possible, you might lose some money in the near future:
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ok wild test :D i longed 1258. let's see what happens. btc.d is sending. eth/btc tested the desc. triangle. it's wild for alts but shouldn't get any wilder or i am out.
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ok i got out. looks terrible. never seen a more ridiculous move. something feels wrong but anyway we'll see what happens.
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did my short-term bias changed? actually no. i'd never short this. there is no strong TA argument for me to short here. maybe we're just forming a bigger range around here. idk now. this is wait and see time for me.
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i mean what is this? if there was a real bearish momentum we should've crashed already. idk feels like a jebait:
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Before the bears finish their victory lap lol:
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I got a small long from ~1250 but let's see. I don't trust this state of the market. Eth dropped too deep for me. Yes they pushed it up immediately but that doesn't do it for me, yet.
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Tell me this won't go all the way up, even break the structure up. idk...
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if we gonna do something like this i am with the bulls.
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Up only? I'm ok with that :D They are playing it dirty.
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I wasn't expecting a wick below 1200. Thus I am mostly shaken out too. (Kept small part of the long from 1250). But this was a good TA lesson anyway. I am sorry if you shorted the bottom of a bullish range.
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Is ETH really accumulating? Idk. A few things don't fit but i am impressed anyway.
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2 long triggers:
1. breakout + consolidation + breakout 2. retest
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Idk this doesn't make me really confident but not bad:
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ETH/BTC is also "not bad"
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Forget everything, forget this is ETH chart. Just look at this and make your decision. What i see is that they baited the bears 2 times. They had a chance to sell everything, crash everything but here we are.
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What i wanted / expected to see vs. what's happening right now:
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I still think anything between 1450-1500 is a great short btw. At that point, you short it with a reasonable stop for you, and hope it's a redist. range not an accumulation range.
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Another weird channel. Maybe it wants to stay boring.
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Yeah it wants to stay boring.
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State of the things. Dangerous but not hopeless:
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ETH/BTC needs to bounce here or it'll look bad:
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Chop... Chop never changes.
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I think DXY is breaking up. Let's see if crypto can resist against the pressure of other markets. I'm a TA guy. I can't see strong bearish trend coming soon. First the trap.
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This is getting ugly:
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Oh nooo, bears are jebaited again? Hmmm?
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They are constantly jebaiting. Amazing.
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This is what happened since i drew these 2 long trigger scenarios. The last retest wasn't bad. A little more consolidation will make it better.
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And i have to say this range is looking more and more like an accumulation range. If it breaks up, I won't try to short it until I see some really clear bearish signals.
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It's in the grid. Getting closer to the range high. Good luck bulls!
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B-but ser, isn't it the end of the world? Why isn't it crashing?
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I think this is still the only short trade that makes sense. I might try it by risking very little capital.
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Do you imagine a bright future for ETH? I do, sometimes.
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Ltf not bad, is it?
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Update. I love rounding bottoms but let's see. It's low timeframe anyway.
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This is where we are in the range. This is not an ugly move. I think it's gonna be a breakout. Then it'll decide what to do.
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Let's say 1430-1500 is safe-ish short area. Above that, there is almost nothing for bears until ~1700.
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My long is almost all closed. I have small short orders between 1430-1490 but I'll take very little risk until i see some bearish signs.
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Wow ok that's aggressive. You can't say ETH didn't earn it tho. Bulls worked hard.
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This is a good first move. Now let's see the consolidation, please?
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My short orders are filled with an average of $1480. Took some profits and break-even is $1500. Have stops above 1530. This is the best i can as a bear for now. We can't talk about a solid up-trend yet. So we will see.
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BTC desc. triangle update. Breakout is not a surprise for me. Not at all. But an up-only would be a surprise. Remember what ETH/BTC did after the breakout of desc. triangle. I'm expecting same kind of fuckery before building an up-trend, if it's going to build one.
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Daily close. This candle is undeniably bullish. Here is a bullish and bearish case. I'm a mid-term bear but I have to say this candle favors the green case.
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Another important thing about ETH is this downtrend break. Here is a big accumulation range case.
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It has to pullback or we'll probably see something like this. Good old bart.
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Update. I don't like it BUT levels i thought would be resistance are destroyed. Hard to choose side for me rn.
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I mean ok, up only, bottom is in bla bla. But there is no trend. This is a full blown squeeze.
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ETH/BTC same.
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This is some weight for the bulls.
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Ltf update. I still think deep pullback is needed. Then we'll see if the bulls step in or not. I'm not claiming they won't at first. This move deserves a big top structure.
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Personally I'm holding a short with 1545 break-even price because i think it's worth the risk to start building the short around here.
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To make it more clear, I scaled down my short dramatically around 1530 but never closed. Added some, took some profit etc. and the break-even is 1545 now with an easily scalable position size.
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This played out very well. I'm thinking ~1470 as the first important tp point.
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This is a dangerous look on BTC. Retest makes it dangerous.
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Now i got a BTC short as well. from 20.560. i tought it's worh a try. stop above 20.800.
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I guess we all forgot we had a perfect bear flag, right? Are we distracted enough?
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Oh bull market started? lol. i didn't close anything. Because i didn't feel like it :D Sometimes things go south in trading. If you manage your risk well it might make sense to wait instead of run away immediately.
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For ETH/BTC I think we should consider the possibility of this being a range retest instead of a correction. And this is a distribution range, fyi.
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I'm just focused on 1700-1800 retest. This kinda things happen in bear markets. If you feel bullish at major resistances, check your biases.
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Would you believe a bull market starts with DOGE leading on a weekend right before FOMC meeting? There are crowds who do apparently. I've seen the same scenario in this year. Social media is full of bear mockery. In such a risky environment. Maybe the second worst environment in the century.
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And i think there is a widespread misunderstanding about FED slowing down. Even if they do it doesn't mean a QE. And look at the DJI. You think it's at a bottom? Do you really think all the risks and the current QT is fully priced in?
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This is how MM sell a bear rally, imo.
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People will never believe their favorite bull guy on twitter if the market crashes here. It'd be very interesting to watch.
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Healthy correction, r-right?
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Here is what would make me bullish vs real eth chart. I think this explains my bias clearly.
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long, right?
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Some people are comparing these 2 boxes but i don't think it's tradable.I see their point. It's the general idea of accumulation but:
1. By comparing these two boxes you are making a claim based on only 1 data point in this chart.
2. Previous bottom showed clear signs of momentum change at the exact bottom. You can clearly see it was coiling up. Rounding bottom.
3. I think lower timeframes don't support this idea.
4. Different economic environment. More risks etc.
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I can also add previous double top was a different structure. The spring is between the two tops. This one is a single top that is confirmed shortly after.
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What a dream :D
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I don't really think we need another hunt above 21k to visit some lows. The move is not so big anyway. The double top itself was a good trap imo.
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BTC still bearish. BTC.D looks really bullish. Alt season but for bears i guess :D
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I think this is important. This is the most bullish thing on BTC chart rn. You. can fine tune it a little bit but it has to react around here. Oor fake a breakdown but I wouldn't bet on it, especially about a parabolic trend.
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It's all up to FED at this point. Clearly the market built some hopium on the chart. If FED shows hawkish determination signs today, I think we'll say bye bye to hopium. The number one rule of trading is not fighting the FED. TA shows different options on different views, timeframes.
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I think Powell dictated the direction. I'd be really surprised if i'm wrong.
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I think a UTAD makes sense here.
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Ooor this is it :D BTC not looking healthy.
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Ok so, no corrections or anything. Straight to the new highs :D cool.
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So looks like we are having a failed rally right now. As expected. But at this point i gotta expect a UTAD on BTC. Market wanted more for some reason.
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Look at DOGE to see what's market doing. That PA alone is whispering crash to me.
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You know it's hard to preserve your bias/opinion in a distribution or accumulation phase. I'm struggling like everyone else but I don't trade the opposite direction until i see that thing i thought accumulation/distribution is invalidated.
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I'm starting to see $700 targets on twitter. That's sweet :D Another 6 moths of chop? lol.
its still looks good tho. you should try zooming out again. draw a support trendline from 26th July support to 28th August support. it looks like it is retesting the neckline support as a resistance now.
UnknownUnicorn17387766
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@michiotakeshi9, A trend line means very little to me if it's not a part of good setup, pattern. There was an accumulation pattern and it played out. Now what's happening is squeeze. No TA.
michiotakeshi9
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@wistfulautomata There's no such thing as no TA. just because you lack knowledge of what's happening on the price action currently doesn't mean any TA other than yours are wrong. Everyone knows pattern setup, but not everyone succeed in those trades. That's where other TA setup comes into play. Simply using Fib and trendline, I bought at $1250 and this is the level I was aiming for. Now looking to short. Just a little around $1600.
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yes there are times when ta goes out of the window ON SOME TIMERAMES. i don't care about your trades. at every step my view is there on different timeframes.
michiotakeshi9
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@wistfulautomata you knew I was right but your ego and pride just destroyed yourself. i don't care about you either. earned alot from these trades. simply wanted to give some view and help fellow traders but you emotionally disrespected others. you won't go far with that kind of behaviour. goodluck.
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@michiotakeshi9, What are you right about and what i was wrong about dude? Idk what ur talking about. For the last 3 weeks i was talking about accumulation. You suddenly commented about a trendline on my idea get offended for some reason. I'm totally ok with what's happening right now. Anyone can see that from my updates.
keep going.