With the majority of the bear market behind us, I think it's beneficial to start looking at the next cycle. In this analysis I'm trying to make a forecast on Ethereum's price top in 2025, and consequentially looking at a potential bear-market bottom. Be aware that this analysis is very speculative. Forecasting prices in 2-3 years is simply impossible to do with certainty, but I still think it adds valuable information to the discussion of the next cycle.
To start off, this analysis is based on the dotted blue support trend line at the bottom of the chart. The two purple dotted trendlines are exact copies of the blue one, only anchored on a different point.
The price is following the dotted diagonal trendlines perfectly. Too perfect to not at least consider. My assumption is that ETH will remain inside this bullish channel formation for the next cycle. Since ETH's top this cycle was at the top resistance of the channel, I assume it will be again next time as well.
Furthermore, my assumption is that Ethereum's top will be in 2025. This period makes the most sense because it's the 1.5 years period after the halving (yellow stripes). The vertical red lines mark the 2025 area.
In order to calculate the next cycle's top we have to add two things together: 1) The bullish channel's top resistance. 2) The 2025 area, red vertical lines. When we combine the above we can draw two blue horizontal lines on the intersections of the red lines with the dotted top resistance. According to this forecast, ETH's 2025 top will be somewhere in the area between $12,000 and $16,000.
As for the bear-market bottom, I'm looking at the middle purple support line and the bottom blue one. Worst case scenario ETH will retest the blue bottom support line.
Do you think ETH can follow this analysis? Where do you think ETH will top? Also, please share your best forecasts for the next cycle below.
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Edit: majority of the bear market = majority of the bearish price action.
@204f527996864c37bf99691291ae25, with bear market I meant bearish price action. After selling off ~77% from the top, I think the majority of the pain is behind us. Should've been clearer🙏.
UnknownUnicorn15512799
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WRONG.
musclemilk0075
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Great analysis. Nice chart, and well written. Thanks for sharing. I am a long term holder and I buy any dips. After every storm the sun comes out, and who ever is holding Eth will do well.
The_Bitcoin_Boy
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"following the dotted channel perfectly" you drew a channel that includes literally all of the data lol I think ETH has more downside to it. It's ETHBTC level is due for a correction since the Merge.
Lingrid
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Great work, thanks
xironrules
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Thanks! Ethereum is the best
Yelli_trades
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Hello, thank you for your work and detailed outlook!