My original idea startet at beginning of April and has been very profitable till now:
Long position was made 1.April because: - 0.886 fib circle indicated a turning point. - The inner Gann Arc was about to be reached (happend some days later).
Short position was made 5.May because: - 0.5 fib circle indicated a turning point. - The outer Gann Arc did a perfect hit.
What will happen next? I think it will go all the way down to 235$. When? 2.July (Yes, I know it sounds crazy). Here are the reasons: - The 3. Gann arc indicates the next turning point. - The 1.0 fib circle says the same. - The 1.27 fib level from 3-4 leg is also in the same level. - The statements above give us when it will turn around. - The current descending path is following the Gann line. - This is the last wave (5.) according to Elliot Wave Theory. - The volume has been falling(more or less) since the boble blew up.
Along with the original idea this will give a gain equal to 200%.
Currently it is inside a rising wedge which is a good sign for another drop ahead.
What do you think?
Note! This is not a trading advise, make your own strategies and keep on to it.
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I think the next drop is comming up right now!
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Zoomed out a bit:
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First target on the drop is 0.786 fib = 470$. Then bounce a bit, maybe 0.236fib retracement = 488$? And then falling all the way down to the next fib circle (0.886 = 365$).
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Seems like it went a bit lower compared to my last comment.
My guess right now: It will stop at 412 $ and do the same rising wedge again (This is the 0.886 fibonacci level from 3-4 leg)
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This is the scenario right now:
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Currently in the small correction drawn with pink on my earlier posts. Seems like there is a small rising wedge/sym. triangle right now which could indicate the next drop. Maximum 486.5$ (local 0.382 fib level) before it breaks.
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We are back on the track again. I've adjusted the 0.886 level a bit (412-414$).
But I personally think 0.886 fib is just a small one since it did such a big break at 0.786 fib. We shall wait and see:)
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It bounced a bit earlier than I thought:P
Currently I think it is inside a sym. Triangle where 4. leg is the next move.
Order cancelled
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Total gain of my earlier idea (From 1.april to this morning):
I started using Gann square and Gann square fixed...those are the best tools on tradingview. Aboslutely amazing, especially in combination with other patterns spotting, so accurate. Ichimoku is good filter as well.
Steffro
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@RomanZachary, I absolutely agree on Gann square - it is very accurate on predicting possible next move. But I always try to combine it with other tools - where I often use Gann Fanm, Fib circles, Harmonic patterns and Chart patterns. I know it takes alot of time but it always gives interesting results even when it doesn't reach the target.
I have not tried Ichimoku yet, but I have seen traders using it successfully. Maybe I shall start use it :D
Fib spiral would have also been a great tool, but when I found out that it changed when zooming out I stopped using it:P It is too bad because I think it has a great potential. The same case with Fib speed resistance arcs and Fib wedge.
tvlester
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hi, thanks for this, is Bitcoin in a similar position, as it would control ETH movement, also, the Elliot wave structure you have drawn violates the wave 4 rule, which cannot retrace beyond wave 1. This is a correction, the whole structure is, since it dropped from 1400, it should be labeled ABC correction, and only the A and the C wave can have 5 wave corrective structures.
Steffro
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@tvlester, the Elliot wave is clearly not correct as you described :p But I'm still using the 0-5 to count how many Gann Arcs it has reached. Currently it is the 5. Arc we are heading to.
I think Eth is still attached to Btc, and I'm bearish on both of them. I think altcoin will flourish on the beginning of July when Btc will turn up again.
tvlester
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@Steffro, hey thanks for replying back, curious as to the time frame, Elliot Wave count, if we don't break the feb low, can take us back to 10K minimum on the B correction then taking us down back down to break that feb low, which could take us to your ARC target, do you see us going up and then coming down at a later time?
Steffro
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@tvlester, if it turns up that much now I don't think it will manage to reach the 1.0 fib circle and the arc at the same time. But I'm open for other suggestions;)
It is possible to extend the inner arcs on step further down, that would give us a bit lower target. But the fib circles will then not fit anymore.