• Ethereum’s chart is displaying a textbook case of Gann’s cycles of an inner year.
• These cycles can help determine trend direction months ahead of time.
The Cycles of the Inner Year
Some of the most important lessons that Gann taught were related to time. Gann said that time was the factor that dictated the direction of a trend. Gann focused heavily on time being the primary factor that should be observed. One of the most important discoveries that Gann found were the cycles of the inner year. An inner year is a 360 (365) day period. It does not mean from January 1st to December 31st. To measure an inner year cycle, we just need an important high or low. Gann identified a number of cycles within an inner year: 120-day, 45-day, 90-day. 144-day, etc, etc. None are more important than the 90-day cycle, followed by the 180-day, and then the 270-day cycle. In all these cycles, any instrument that has been trending as it approaches 90, 180 or 270 days in a trend faces an extremely high probability of a countertrend move. Ethereum’s chart is a great example of Gann’s cycles of the inner year.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum follows Gann’s dates and cycles very closely – almost oddly closely. Observe the first 90-day cycle from the 2018 low on December 13th, 2018 to the 99th day from that low on March 22nd, 2019. Quick note: 90-day cycles can extend to 99 days (and 180 to 198-days and 270 to 297 days). That 99th-day was just before another leg higher. And observe the 180-days cycle (Red, 195 days), the top of the 2019 market was on the 195th day from the December 2018 low. And then if we look forward exactly 270-days from the December 2018 low, we start to see Ethereum getting bullish and moving higher. But there’s one other very interesting component here that we have not reviewed. Observe the purple vertical lines. All of those vertical lines represent extremely important Gann dates. There are specific calendar dates that Gann identified as having extreme importance in all markets. Few are as important as December 22nd, March 21st, June 22nd, and September 23rd. If they seem familiar, they should. They are seasonal dates. December 22nd is Winter, March 21st is Spring, June 22nd is Summer and September 23rd is Fall. Notice how often Ethereum creates major move around these dates and notice how frequently these dates are falling on the 90-day cycles of the inner year.
There is a major confluence zone where Ethereum is currently trading. First, we are seeing a bullish response from the 270-day cycle. Second, we are getting closer to the next important Gann seasonal date of September 23rd. This date is doubly important because it is also the 90th day from the 2019 high of 364.49 made on June 26th, 2019. It is no coincidence that these dates are lining up. What we are forming is a powerful time square that creates extremely powerful price moves. This 270-day cycle we have completed is very powerful and it looks to continue a bullish trend that began in December of 2018. How long will the move last? Well, Gann probably has an answer to that. Regarding the 270-day cycle, Gann said that it could start a 90-day cycle that would end a 360-day yearly cycle. There is a very high probability that a 45 to 90-day cycle ends a yearly cycle. And 90-days from the end of the 270-day cycle bring us to December 9th, 2019 – just two weeks short of coming up against the next seasonal Gann date of December 22nd. I am expecting at least 45-days of continued bullish pressure for Ethereum.
• These cycles can help determine trend direction months ahead of time.
The Cycles of the Inner Year
Some of the most important lessons that Gann taught were related to time. Gann said that time was the factor that dictated the direction of a trend. Gann focused heavily on time being the primary factor that should be observed. One of the most important discoveries that Gann found were the cycles of the inner year. An inner year is a 360 (365) day period. It does not mean from January 1st to December 31st. To measure an inner year cycle, we just need an important high or low. Gann identified a number of cycles within an inner year: 120-day, 45-day, 90-day. 144-day, etc, etc. None are more important than the 90-day cycle, followed by the 180-day, and then the 270-day cycle. In all these cycles, any instrument that has been trending as it approaches 90, 180 or 270 days in a trend faces an extremely high probability of a countertrend move. Ethereum’s chart is a great example of Gann’s cycles of the inner year.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum follows Gann’s dates and cycles very closely – almost oddly closely. Observe the first 90-day cycle from the 2018 low on December 13th, 2018 to the 99th day from that low on March 22nd, 2019. Quick note: 90-day cycles can extend to 99 days (and 180 to 198-days and 270 to 297 days). That 99th-day was just before another leg higher. And observe the 180-days cycle (Red, 195 days), the top of the 2019 market was on the 195th day from the December 2018 low. And then if we look forward exactly 270-days from the December 2018 low, we start to see Ethereum getting bullish and moving higher. But there’s one other very interesting component here that we have not reviewed. Observe the purple vertical lines. All of those vertical lines represent extremely important Gann dates. There are specific calendar dates that Gann identified as having extreme importance in all markets. Few are as important as December 22nd, March 21st, June 22nd, and September 23rd. If they seem familiar, they should. They are seasonal dates. December 22nd is Winter, March 21st is Spring, June 22nd is Summer and September 23rd is Fall. Notice how often Ethereum creates major move around these dates and notice how frequently these dates are falling on the 90-day cycles of the inner year.
There is a major confluence zone where Ethereum is currently trading. First, we are seeing a bullish response from the 270-day cycle. Second, we are getting closer to the next important Gann seasonal date of September 23rd. This date is doubly important because it is also the 90th day from the 2019 high of 364.49 made on June 26th, 2019. It is no coincidence that these dates are lining up. What we are forming is a powerful time square that creates extremely powerful price moves. This 270-day cycle we have completed is very powerful and it looks to continue a bullish trend that began in December of 2018. How long will the move last? Well, Gann probably has an answer to that. Regarding the 270-day cycle, Gann said that it could start a 90-day cycle that would end a 360-day yearly cycle. There is a very high probability that a 45 to 90-day cycle ends a yearly cycle. And 90-days from the end of the 270-day cycle bring us to December 9th, 2019 – just two weeks short of coming up against the next seasonal Gann date of December 22nd. I am expecting at least 45-days of continued bullish pressure for Ethereum.
Comment:
Uptrend remains - the time event described above triggered a monster bear move instead of a bull move - but we are nearing the final major confluence zone for the year in early December.