botje11

ETH Short term view, struggling with double top resistance

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
ETH might be a bit easier one to watch, because here we can see the process of making a rounding bottom has started already. I have chosen the Bitfinex chart because we don't have such a huge wick there. I just can't be sure that it's the right though, but no choice here that to do the most logical thing. First of all, the highlighted orange area shows that it's not a typical bear flag , but more the start of a rounding bottom formation.

The big sell volume candle is not something to ignore, this is usually what bears want to see. But the fight is not over yet, i am still keeping the options open here. A break of the green support would say the bear flag is likely to be real. If we are lucky, we move inside of this range for at least another day, because then it would be easier to judge where we might go after the weekend. Now first thought is (based on btc as well) that we drop more. But it feels a bit as if the market sentiment has turned bearish a bit too soon again, so i am keeping a bullish outcome still very possible here.

So we have a big range now, between 225ish and 250ish. A high volume break of 225 would suggest a high might be set. Next support will be around 205. A break of 250, doesn't mean we will continue the rally again, because we could simply make a lower high around 260. But will also depend on the strength of the breakout and it's volume . The higher the volume and the stronger the break of 250, bigger the chances of the correction already being done. A small range on the right we can follow as well now, with 240ish being a resistance now.

Usually a small sign for a bear flag failure, is seeing buying volume increasing during the pushes up. It can be a good clue sometimes so it's something to watch as well. At this point, i am not seeing it yet. Open Intrest on ETH and BTC remains low as well, which is usually a bad sign. We would want to see that increase as well coming day or 2.

I think, bit guessing at this point, is seeing a move up to 255/260 and then drop big again.



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That drop took a lot of people out but we are still holding long right now up 44%+ and are watching the stop loss. We just scaled out another 5% about an hour ago and are preparing for a short trade that could come today or tomorrow! Best of luck guys!
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Looks like your 255/260 top prediction is coming true, @botje11 The bullish move seems to be already fizzling out, after this morning's strong surge. Might be a good sign for everybody (and that's including me :) ) who's looking to add more ETH at around 200, don't you think?
+2 Reply
Does the price action on weekends count the same for you in the charting, including the weekend volumes, as usually higher volumes during the week?
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botje11 d14b0ll0s
@d14b0ll0s, That is what sucks in crypto, difficult to say. I do look at the chart with the weekends as well, but i always assume that volume is allowed to be a bit lower than weekdays. But sometimes, like last week we had record volume days even, so it's an ordinary day. So i do look at weekend, but can't say it's good or bad.
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@botje11, You're right that there were some very unusual weekends in the recent months, including some of the big drops starting on weekends. But it seems Mondays and, even to a greater extent, Tuesdays often give more direction to the market when it's a business day and trading time at many different world markets (and I don't mean retail; algo bots clearly don't take weekends off into account… but traders can, and then the market is given direction). Just speculation. But I somehow feel the volatile days will begin on Monday (and probably a bigger drop judging from how this correction looks right now). Then again, it often starts on Monday just after midnight UTC (first 4hr candle at least), so I'm not sure if it's just new a trading day on Far Eastern markets or painting the weekly candle right for the long game...
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d14b0ll0s d14b0ll0s
@d14b0ll0s, and BTW, since it's an ETH post :), it's interesting how ETHUSD still looks stronger than BTC indicators-wise, even though it hasn't even properly begun the kind of bull run BTC had and despite total market cap for alts dropping faster than for BTC… at least that was the case last time I checked
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d14b0ll0s d14b0ll0s
@d14b0ll0s, OK, BTC fooled me ;-)
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d14b0ll0s d14b0ll0s
@d14b0ll0s, but I'm keeping my short, so far it's just the normal .618 of the drop including the BitStamp wick…
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