botje11

ETH Short term view, struggling with double top resistance

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum
ETH might be a bit easier one to watch, because here we can see the process of making a rounding bottom has started already. I have chosen the Bitfinex chart because we don't have such a huge wick there. I just can't be sure that it's the right though, but no choice here that to do the most logical thing. First of all, the highlighted orange area shows that it's not a typical bear flag, but more the start of a rounding bottom formation.

The big sell volume candle is not something to ignore, this is usually what bears want to see. But the fight is not over yet, i am still keeping the options open here. A break of the green support would say the bear flag is likely to be real. If we are lucky, we move inside of this range for at least another day, because then it would be easier to judge where we might go after the weekend. Now first thought is (based on btc as well) that we drop more. But it feels a bit as if the market sentiment has turned bearish a bit too soon again, so i am keeping a bullish outcome still very possible here.

So we have a big range now, between 225ish and 250ish. A high volume break of 225 would suggest a high might be set. Next support will be around 205. A break of 250, doesn't mean we will continue the rally again, because we could simply make a lower high around 260. But will also depend on the strength of the breakout and it's volume. The higher the volume and the stronger the break of 250, bigger the chances of the correction already being done. A small range on the right we can follow as well now, with 240ish being a resistance now.

Usually a small sign for a bear flag failure, is seeing buying volume increasing during the pushes up. It can be a good clue sometimes so it's something to watch as well. At this point, i am not seeing it yet. Open Intrest on ETH and BTC remains low as well, which is usually a bad sign. We would want to see that increase as well coming day or 2.

I think, bit guessing at this point, is seeing a move up to 255/260 and then drop big again.



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