ETHUSD update: Nice push into the 271 to 291 resistance zone off of the shallow higher low. Tough trade to take because of the risk, and now even more so since price did not clear the resistance completely.
Bullish movements back up in the face of bearish structure is probably the most confusing for newer traders. Don't worry because if this market is going to present consistent bullish momentum, there will be more opportunities to get in even if the prices are higher.
The problem with entering now is that price is sitting at a high, and still hesitating near the range of the resistance zone. The next retrace will offer a much better opportunity in my opinion compared to where it is now. The key to buying into this market is waiting to see how low the next retrace goes. Now that there is some bullish structure to work with, there are new reference points to consider.
The first level that I will be evaluating is a retrace to the 260 area. Not only has this level been a key level during the major selloff, but is now the .382 of the recent bullish structure. If price can hold this area, and show a reversal pattern, I will be looking for a long swing trade with a target into the low 300s. If price falls through, then the next area is the 237 to 220 support which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. I need to evaluate the price structure at the time in order to evaluate the risk.
I must make this clear: I am not putting buy orders in ahead of time. I am waiting to evaluate the price action IF the market revisits these levels. This market may not retrace at all and start pushing higher in which case I will NOT enter any position. Also since the current move up has not completely cleared the resistance zone, this market still has a good possibility of falling through the supports to test the lows (Remember Wave C?).
What is good about the current price structure is it's showing the possibility of momentum changing, but it has yet to prove itself. One negative catalyst and these supports will vanish. That is why as short term traders we evaluate risk and use stops. Also I must add IF another dramatic sell off materializes, the extreme prices will present investment opportunities for those who are interested in long term (AS IN HOLDING FOR YEARS). It is a completely different mindset and strategy from short term trading but I feel is worth mentioning because it requires much less precision. Just make sure to keep the strategies separate. Each one has its own plan and risk parameters, if you do not have any type of plan, then you should not be in these markets to begin with.
In summary, do not be frustrated by the recent upswing. Be happy you weren't short. Since price is hesitating within the projected resistance zone, I believe there is a better chance it retraces. If it can retrace back to a projected support level, and show some reversal confirmations on smaller time frames, then risk can be evaluated and setting a target in the low 300s is reasonable. Reward to risk should be no less than 1:1. And remember these supports are minor relative to the bearish structures that are currently in place. If they hold, great. If they break, then be prepared for the possibility of another test of the extremes, (which is not a bad thing if you are an investor). In the big picture, these markets are not that bearish, they just need to stabilize which may call for some range bound price action for a little while. The market will let us know.
thank you, i always look forward to your analysis and i now check my gmail every few hours for any updates. Keep up the great work.
MarcPMarkets
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@mooneymoonman, you're welcome. Glad you find my analysis helpful.
goldbug1
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Another great article Marc, love them!
MarcPMarkets
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@goldbug1, glad you are finding my analysis helpful.
VanDeam
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you can explain in words what i think. thank you.
MarcPMarkets
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@VanDeam, hehe great I am glad you find my analysis helpful.
BrunoDanteSampaio
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Hi Marc, thanks for the post! I habe a, qiestion:
"Also I must add IF another dramatic sell off materializes, the extreme prices will present investment opportunities for those who are interested in long term (AS IN HOLDING FOR YEARS)."
Why not a valid entry also for short term/swing trades? Is it because of risk management?
Best regards,
Bruno.
MarcPMarkets
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@BrunoDanteSampaio, because the current levels are not attractive for any swing trades according to the plan I follow. I keep the strategies separate. When a swing trade opportunity appears, I will write about it.
KimJonUn
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Double top at 299 right now. Must confirm.
MarcPMarkets
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@FabioDaSilva, not sure what time frame, but price is still slow. Needs to break the 260s and 250s to really start pulling back and until BTC does anything, this market is going nowhere.