First a macro view
Ethereum currently in its final phase of corrective wave 4 as depicted. For the overall macro structure a super massive leading diagonal fits the fifth wave perfectly. A 8-10k ethereum in late 2026 followed by a big crash ( a wave 2 retracement off the ath) matches my approximate timeline with the inevitable recession.
Wave 4 is an abc corrective followed by an expanding triangle in teal colour (or can be just a bunch of three waves) followed by another abc - which seems to be a triple zig zag that i will
detail in the following lower timeframe micro view.
I also have highlighted the fib extension of the triple zig zag Y and leads us with an ~1850 Ethereum wave Z finish. More explained below.
I will also validate this with a number of approaches and confluence.
So heres a closer loook. We have the first impulse wave of the low 1384 in april 2025 and it finishing at a peak of 4957.
We are now in corrective wave 2 which is mainly the triple zig zag i have outlined as the wxyxz.
(the distributive ethereum top has some three waves connecting the wxyxz)
Now heres a bunch of validation.
1) The wave 2 retracement is on target for the 0.754 - 0.886 fib target where you can see with the smiley face on the left.
2) This is a perfect finish as it also fills in a fair value gap from an eth pump may 2025. Left Smiley face.
3) Triple zig zags wave Z can be 100 or 127.2 or 161.8 of wave Y. In this case it is the most common occurring 100% and leads us to a ~1840 ether.
4) This stays and lands in the parallel channel nicely
5) This value also lands on the huge multi year ascending trendline bottom support for ether as well
6) So as you can see by the smiley face on the right side there is huge confluence. fibonacci retrace of wave 2 pf 1. the fair value gap. the size of wave z compared to y fitting nicely. the landing of the trendline and parallel channel match.
also note validation of the connector WX and YZZ being approx durations of 17 and 19 days well within the elliot wave rules/standards.
I have highlighted a rectangular box for a nice buy in the 1800-2200 range for ether.
In addion you can further find extra confluence with bitcoin technical analysis and eth/btc charts. Now the above is heavily dependent on eth/btc ratio breaking down or not..
If eth / btc breaks down (yes that seems to be a fakeout to the upside recently) and sweeps out the price action at july 2025 it is a perfect golden fib retrace at around 0.027 and 0.03
Hence, for example say bitcoin breaks down and filling the fvg of the TRUMP pump Nov 2024, that leaves us a nice round simple figure of 70k. match it with my expectred 0.028 eth/btc and you get 1960. Perfectly sitting in my highlighted rectangular box (1800-2200).
So yes when doing technical analysis its good to relate as many things as possible. Many ppl dont look at the eth/btc ratio but it another branch or avenue to help and assist with confirmations.
Ethereum currently in its final phase of corrective wave 4 as depicted. For the overall macro structure a super massive leading diagonal fits the fifth wave perfectly. A 8-10k ethereum in late 2026 followed by a big crash ( a wave 2 retracement off the ath) matches my approximate timeline with the inevitable recession.
Wave 4 is an abc corrective followed by an expanding triangle in teal colour (or can be just a bunch of three waves) followed by another abc - which seems to be a triple zig zag that i will
detail in the following lower timeframe micro view.
I also have highlighted the fib extension of the triple zig zag Y and leads us with an ~1850 Ethereum wave Z finish. More explained below.
I will also validate this with a number of approaches and confluence.
So heres a closer loook. We have the first impulse wave of the low 1384 in april 2025 and it finishing at a peak of 4957.
We are now in corrective wave 2 which is mainly the triple zig zag i have outlined as the wxyxz.
(the distributive ethereum top has some three waves connecting the wxyxz)
Now heres a bunch of validation.
1) The wave 2 retracement is on target for the 0.754 - 0.886 fib target where you can see with the smiley face on the left.
2) This is a perfect finish as it also fills in a fair value gap from an eth pump may 2025. Left Smiley face.
3) Triple zig zags wave Z can be 100 or 127.2 or 161.8 of wave Y. In this case it is the most common occurring 100% and leads us to a ~1840 ether.
4) This stays and lands in the parallel channel nicely
5) This value also lands on the huge multi year ascending trendline bottom support for ether as well
6) So as you can see by the smiley face on the right side there is huge confluence. fibonacci retrace of wave 2 pf 1. the fair value gap. the size of wave z compared to y fitting nicely. the landing of the trendline and parallel channel match.
also note validation of the connector WX and YZZ being approx durations of 17 and 19 days well within the elliot wave rules/standards.
I have highlighted a rectangular box for a nice buy in the 1800-2200 range for ether.
In addion you can further find extra confluence with bitcoin technical analysis and eth/btc charts. Now the above is heavily dependent on eth/btc ratio breaking down or not..
If eth / btc breaks down (yes that seems to be a fakeout to the upside recently) and sweeps out the price action at july 2025 it is a perfect golden fib retrace at around 0.027 and 0.03
Hence, for example say bitcoin breaks down and filling the fvg of the TRUMP pump Nov 2024, that leaves us a nice round simple figure of 70k. match it with my expectred 0.028 eth/btc and you get 1960. Perfectly sitting in my highlighted rectangular box (1800-2200).
So yes when doing technical analysis its good to relate as many things as possible. Many ppl dont look at the eth/btc ratio but it another branch or avenue to help and assist with confirmations.
Note
note that fib extension tool giving slightly difference values depending on the exchange of course so thats why I just put ~ 1850 ishNote
Note yes ether is feasible to get this low. There is lack of supply on exchanges so moves are volatile. Also check auguest 2024 where eth/btc ratio lost 10% in a day during a capitulation or liquidation cascade where a similar event might occur again. ---soon
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.