ETHUSD Update: 241 resistance has been taken out as BTC breaks out to new highs on rising volume. Very bullish signs which confirm further strength in this market while previous support levels are now adjusted higher.
This market has been maintaining its bullish structure all along so this higher high should not come as a surprise. As I mentioned in previous reports, the low volume was holding it back. Now that BTC has made a decisive move to new all time highs, this market is now pushing through an important resistance at 241 (.382 of recent bearish swing).
What does this mean? It means price is poised to enter the 250 to 280 resistance zone and low 300s. One observation that is not consistent with the strength is the lack of momentum. With BTC pushing new all time highs, I would think this market would be pushing the 280 level at least, so there is certainly less enthusiasm. (Maybe i'ts all the supply being dumped from the ICO scams). Whatever it is, price should have a little more push under it and the push is not there.
This market is still strong, push or no push, and I am still interested in buying for a swing trade. I do not buy highs so once again I am waiting for a retrace and buy setup at the adjusted support levels which are the 230 to 220 area (inverted resistance) and 218. As long as price stays above 218, this market should trend higher. A break below, and a possible retest of the 202 to 192 (.618 of recent upswing) is in order.
For me to get long, I need to see a retrace back to one of these areas followed by a reversal pattern. A double bottom on a 1 hour or 30 min chart, or a hammer on a 4 hour are some examples. If the retrace never materializes, then I will simply wait for a new level to present itself. Strong markets always offer minor retracements, it is just a matter of waiting for one. If I manage to get long within the 230 to 220 area, my stop will be around 210 and my first target in the mid 260s.
In summary, the push of 241 resistance signals further strength. Remember in a strong market, supports tend to hold while resistances break. Also as price pushes higher, support levels adjust upward as the new structure establishes itself. I am looking for a retracement followed by the appearance of my buy setup to get long. Keep an eye on the BTC market because that is the leader of the pack.
With all due respect Marc, a retrace is not going to happen. Not the one you are looking for anyway. The only retrace you may see is back to $245-$241 maybe. #241 is now solid support. You were a little early with the article. But hey that happens to us all. I think we test $280-90 by Tuesday morning.
MarcPMarkets
⋅
@NoCode326, the market is going go where the order flow takes it. I cannot predict what it is going to do, all I can do is weigh probabilities and risk. I agree 241 should act as a supportive area since it was such a persistent resistance. Price is holding, but risk is too high for me to buy at these levels, so I evaluate the next supports and IF price goes there, then I can continue with my plan, and if price doesn't, then all I can do is sit, watch and wait.
NoCode326
⋅
@MarcPMarkets, Very true statements. And I agree there is definitely an element of risk. I have a very tight stop on this one. Price action is obviously very important. Sentiment is also very important. Sentiment is much of the reasoning behind my prediction. We've gone from riduclously bullish at $418 down to the end is near $133. Just a week ago, the bears were 'about' to push back down through $180 to a measly $80 within days. We had BTC fork fear as well and yet here we sit at 265ish, above a massive resistance line. I think the last push down to 188ish was where the reversal occured. We retraced from the $133 to $235 move down to a very difficult test at $180-90. So at this point I think a retrace will be minimal and quickly bought.....
Your posts are probably the most informative out here, I definitely enjoy reading!! Best of luck!!!
NoCode326
⋅
@MarcPMarkets, $280-$290 :)....Retrace is coming through, maybe to $272, maybe. It does need to pullback though. Definitely will not make it through $310
lalobit
⋅
should i sell all my ethers now and take profit ?
MarcPMarkets
⋅
@lalobit, locking in some profit never hurts, but I personally would not sell ALL my ethers. Why would I? I'm bullish.
MCrypto
⋅
Just wanted to say thank you for the detailed analysis, it help a lot to understand the market and your trading ideas :)
MarcPMarkets
⋅
@MCrypto, glad to hear. I make every effort to produce analysis that is helpful to the community here.
mightytrader
⋅
You write more details on your trade than anyone on TradingView! Thank you! Now I know what I must study more of.
MarcPMarkets
⋅
@mightytrader, what good is a chart without an explanation? I'm glad you find it helpful.