Ethereum - Overview of the Bull and Bear Scenarios
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Ethereum found support at $117, a little above our preferred buy area at $115-111 (61.8% Fib). It is bullish as it is consolidating in sideways within the tight range of $111-130 until the blood moon on January 21st. The blood moon's bearish effect can last a week or two after it hits until the end of my own custom cycle on January 29 before we see a resolution in either direction as outlined below.
Bears: (in red)
A potential bearish H&S would send us to $62-55 (our previous target from a month ago in case $84-80 fails as a final support). The H&S would need to complete the last shoulder with a drop to $115-111 in the incoming days and activate it with a drop to $108.50-106.00 and below by January 21st blood moon through January 29.
Bulls: (in blue) - higher probability
The incomplete bearish H&S and its failure which would send us short-squeezing and retesting $150-160 again and even higher at $180-190, before dropping back down to the 61.8% Fib support at $115-111. Should the bulls manage to pull that around early February then we would be following the Bitcoin 2015 accumulation phase prior to the multiyear bull trend starting sometime in March-May 2019. Should this happen we will look at buying in fully in March on a double bottom attempt at $84-80 (may bottom a tad higher at $90) and holding long-term positions (cold storage) in ALTS as well.
Buy/Support:
$120-121.50 - 50% Fib - Potential accumulation range for the next few months (given that no new lows are made)
$115-111 - 61.8% Fib - Preferred buying range - buy up to 50% - see stoploss below
$84-80 - Potential double bottom level (may bottom as early as $90)
Sell/Resistance:
$130 - 38.2% Fib
$141 - 23.6% Fib
$150-160 - Sell 50%
$180-190 - Sell 50%
Stoploss: $105.50
Ethereum found support at $117, a little above our preferred buy area at $115-111 (61.8% Fib). It is bullish as it is consolidating in sideways within the tight range of $111-130 until the blood moon on January 21st. The blood moon's bearish effect can last a week or two after it hits until the end of my own custom cycle on January 29 before we see a resolution in either direction as outlined below.
Bears: (in red)
A potential bearish H&S would send us to $62-55 (our previous target from a month ago in case $84-80 fails as a final support). The H&S would need to complete the last shoulder with a drop to $115-111 in the incoming days and activate it with a drop to $108.50-106.00 and below by January 21st blood moon through January 29.
Bulls: (in blue) - higher probability
The incomplete bearish H&S and its failure which would send us short-squeezing and retesting $150-160 again and even higher at $180-190, before dropping back down to the 61.8% Fib support at $115-111. Should the bulls manage to pull that around early February then we would be following the Bitcoin 2015 accumulation phase prior to the multiyear bull trend starting sometime in March-May 2019. Should this happen we will look at buying in fully in March on a double bottom attempt at $84-80 (may bottom a tad higher at $90) and holding long-term positions (cold storage) in ALTS as well.
Buy/Support:
$120-121.50 - 50% Fib - Potential accumulation range for the next few months (given that no new lows are made)
$115-111 - 61.8% Fib - Preferred buying range - buy up to 50% - see stoploss below
$84-80 - Potential double bottom level (may bottom as early as $90)
Sell/Resistance:
$130 - 38.2% Fib
$141 - 23.6% Fib
$150-160 - Sell 50%
$180-190 - Sell 50%
Stoploss: $105.50
Trade active
Comment:
ETHUSD Potential Sell Signal Detected on Multiple Timeframes:
Seeing currently a warning/sell signal sign on the Momentum indicator 1H 2H 3H 6H 12H timeframes on ETHUSD. I recommend everyone to be vigilant (until it cancels) and make sure the alarms or stoploss are set at $108.50. Also set stoplosses on ALTS.
Finally, noticing SIX bearish red candles in a row on the 3D Chart.
Bottom line is, the $115-111 support is the last chance for the bulls to keep Ethereum and ALTS in the green. As long as it holds until end of February and the current sell signals cancels by January 25, then we will most likely not see new lows below $80.
Seeing currently a warning/sell signal sign on the Momentum indicator 1H 2H 3H 6H 12H timeframes on ETHUSD. I recommend everyone to be vigilant (until it cancels) and make sure the alarms or stoploss are set at $108.50. Also set stoplosses on ALTS.
Finally, noticing SIX bearish red candles in a row on the 3D Chart.
Bottom line is, the $115-111 support is the last chance for the bulls to keep Ethereum and ALTS in the green. As long as it holds until end of February and the current sell signals cancels by January 25, then we will most likely not see new lows below $80.
Comment:
The sell signal since our last update disappeared and reappeared again as Ethereum is still bound to tight sideways within the symmetrical triangles we have pointed to in our telegram channel.
As of now we are favoring the bull setup to $128-130 38.2% Fib once Ethereum manages to break up past the top resistance at $116.80. The move will most likely be a big bart up where most novice traders will FOMO in thinking this will be the big rally they've been waiting for to $160-170. However, it won't and we will most likely see a drop back down to retest the bottom support at $115-111 a last time before the real break out occurs in the first week of February.
As of now we are favoring the bull setup to $128-130 38.2% Fib once Ethereum manages to break up past the top resistance at $116.80. The move will most likely be a big bart up where most novice traders will FOMO in thinking this will be the big rally they've been waiting for to $160-170. However, it won't and we will most likely see a drop back down to retest the bottom support at $115-111 a last time before the real break out occurs in the first week of February.
Comment:
Yesterday the support at $115-111 (61.8% Fib) failed and our stoploss was hit at $108.50 at which we exited on the bounce to $110. As expected from the failure of the support, we washed down towards the next support at the 78.6% Fib at $100-97 (Coinbase so far stopped at $100.90).
With that drop we activated our forecasted continuation H&S bearish pattern scenario which has a target of at least $62-55. This H&S can cancel out only with a move above $146 which would need a short-squeeze by the bulls. This short-squeeze bull reversal is possible through the purple falling wedge seen on the chart which has a target of $135-138 roughly.
As you see, the market is at a difficult junction from which the market will decide on the direction. I typically do not like to trade such highly risky setups however see recommendation(s) below
Bears: (in red) - ACTIVATED
The H&S has activated and will send us to at least $62-55 (once $84-80 fails as a support). The H&S would cancel with a move above $146+ that would follow our bullish blue projection.
Bulls: (in purple and blue)
The bulls may attempt a come back using a bull reversal through the purple falling wedge which has a target of $135-138 roughly. This would send Ethereum back on track following the 2015 blue bullish accumulation fractal with a rally towards $160-170 again. At the moment, Without a move above $117, this remains a low possibility.
Buy/Support:
$84-80
$100-97 - 78.6% Fib - Buy/Open Long 5-25% to attempt trading the purple falling wedge - RISKY
$120-121.50 - 50% Fib
$115-111 - 61.8% Fib - Preferred buying range
$84-80 - Potential double bottom level
Sell/Resistance:
$111-115
$117-120
$135-141 - Purple Wedge Target
$150-160 - Sell 50%
$180-190 - Sell 50%
Stoploss: $96.60
ETHUSD Bull Bear Forecasts:
With that drop we activated our forecasted continuation H&S bearish pattern scenario which has a target of at least $62-55. This H&S can cancel out only with a move above $146 which would need a short-squeeze by the bulls. This short-squeeze bull reversal is possible through the purple falling wedge seen on the chart which has a target of $135-138 roughly.
As you see, the market is at a difficult junction from which the market will decide on the direction. I typically do not like to trade such highly risky setups however see recommendation(s) below
Bears: (in red) - ACTIVATED
The H&S has activated and will send us to at least $62-55 (once $84-80 fails as a support). The H&S would cancel with a move above $146+ that would follow our bullish blue projection.
Bulls: (in purple and blue)
The bulls may attempt a come back using a bull reversal through the purple falling wedge which has a target of $135-138 roughly. This would send Ethereum back on track following the 2015 blue bullish accumulation fractal with a rally towards $160-170 again. At the moment, Without a move above $117, this remains a low possibility.
Buy/Support:
$84-80
$100-97 - 78.6% Fib - Buy/Open Long 5-25% to attempt trading the purple falling wedge - RISKY
$120-121.50 - 50% Fib
$115-111 - 61.8% Fib - Preferred buying range
$84-80 - Potential double bottom level
Sell/Resistance:
$111-115
$117-120
$135-141 - Purple Wedge Target
$150-160 - Sell 50%
$180-190 - Sell 50%
Stoploss: $96.60
ETHUSD Bull Bear Forecasts:
Comment:
Although Bitcoin managed to make new lows and hit within our buying range at $3,322 on Bitstamp and $3,422 on Bitfinex, Ethereum did not make new lows or attempt to go lower than $102 to our preferred buying range at $100-97 (which is the bottom of the falling wedge). For those who readjusted and bought around $102-103 that's great. For those who are want to buy, I suggest waiting for another attempt to drop to $103.75-102.5 to attempt the buy. The momentum so far is bullish on the 30min 1H while the 2H is pending a bull cross. It is likely to see some sideways ahead for two days before we see the top of the wedge at $107.80-108.60 tested.
Comment:
Ethereum ETHUSD Bull and Bear Shootout Recap:
While we wait for a resolution on Ethereum, I just sat down to give a recap the strengths for each case:
The Bear Case: (Higher Probability Based on the below points)
1. A 6H momentum bearish divergence (marked with a green line)
2. The bearish H&S continuation pattern (in red) we have been following since 2 weeks now is active and takes over the falling wedge for now. Target at least $62-55
3. The purple falling wedge is at this point way way too much within the end of the tip to possibly play out in my opinion (but hey lets wait for it to cancel with a drop below its bottom at $96-95.5)
4. No capitulation bottom or V bottom visible yet
5. The 3D 12H 4H 3H momentum are favoring the bears at this moment
The Bull Case:
1. The falling wedge bull reversal is pending activation and confirms with a break of $105.40-107.00
2. A potential double bottom attempt can be attempted from the current $103-101 range and confirmed with a break of $107 (Coinbase)
ETHUSD H&S and Falling Wedge Chart:
While we wait for a resolution on Ethereum, I just sat down to give a recap the strengths for each case:
The Bear Case: (Higher Probability Based on the below points)
1. A 6H momentum bearish divergence (marked with a green line)
2. The bearish H&S continuation pattern (in red) we have been following since 2 weeks now is active and takes over the falling wedge for now. Target at least $62-55
3. The purple falling wedge is at this point way way too much within the end of the tip to possibly play out in my opinion (but hey lets wait for it to cancel with a drop below its bottom at $96-95.5)
4. No capitulation bottom or V bottom visible yet
5. The 3D 12H 4H 3H momentum are favoring the bears at this moment
The Bull Case:
1. The falling wedge bull reversal is pending activation and confirms with a break of $105.40-107.00
2. A potential double bottom attempt can be attempted from the current $103-101 range and confirmed with a break of $107 (Coinbase)
ETHUSD H&S and Falling Wedge Chart:
Comment:
As advised to our members on all the channels, Ethereum may be going onto sideways for the next 2 weeks while testing every triangle. The range may vary between $103-110 to $103-115.
The momentum is in favor of the bulls on the 30min 1H 2H 3H 4H 6H as of now. With the short-term double bottom that held we could go retesting higher in the resistance at $111-114 by the weekly close to attempt closing it bullish.
There is also a symmetrical triangle passing by $110 which was hit earlier today. Well in any case if your not holding a position from below $108 I don't recommend buying at this moment anymore as we head onto an confluence area of more resistances ahead.
So far both bull and bear scenarios we have forecasted several weeks ago are still valid as none have cancelled making our decision on the midterm a uncertain:
1. The bearish H&S to $65-55 and
2. The bullish blue fractal to $160-170
Both converging to February 27 Ethereum's Hard Fork.
If we manage to break up to $114-115 on tomorrow's weekly close and drop back down to $105.50-104.00, then I would be inclined to side with the bullish blue fractal towards $160-170 by the Hard Fork on February 27.
ETHUSD Bull Bear Scenarios Chart:
The momentum is in favor of the bulls on the 30min 1H 2H 3H 4H 6H as of now. With the short-term double bottom that held we could go retesting higher in the resistance at $111-114 by the weekly close to attempt closing it bullish.
There is also a symmetrical triangle passing by $110 which was hit earlier today. Well in any case if your not holding a position from below $108 I don't recommend buying at this moment anymore as we head onto an confluence area of more resistances ahead.
So far both bull and bear scenarios we have forecasted several weeks ago are still valid as none have cancelled making our decision on the midterm a uncertain:
1. The bearish H&S to $65-55 and
2. The bullish blue fractal to $160-170
Both converging to February 27 Ethereum's Hard Fork.
If we manage to break up to $114-115 on tomorrow's weekly close and drop back down to $105.50-104.00, then I would be inclined to side with the bullish blue fractal towards $160-170 by the Hard Fork on February 27.
ETHUSD Bull Bear Scenarios Chart:
Comment:
So far Ethereum remains in sideways within the symmetrical triangle (after fully retracing down from hitting the 12H midband/resistance at $108.50-110 yesterday) and currently is testing the bottom neckline $104.75-105 (see sideways chart). Should we break down following the red bearish path, then we will retest $103.40-102. If that support does not hold then another drop lower to $84-80 for a double bottom potential attempt would most likely follow.
The worrying sign is the 3D momentum that is pending a bear cross that could as well send us washing down towards the target of the bearish H&S at $62-55 with a wick to $48-40 just like the November 2018 similar bear cross.
The momentum on the lower timeframes such as 1H 2H 3H 6H has switched to bearish as we head into closing the weekly bearish below the preferred support level of $114-115. Bottom line, the outlook remains bearish on the Weekly same is for Bitcoin.
So far I remain on the sidelines in fiat/cash until I see a high probability scenario present itself. The maximum date we should remain in fiat/cash is February 14 as the Constantinople Ethereum Hard Fork Rally will start on or before that date.
ETHUSD Short-term Sideways: See our telegram chat for the chart
ETHUSD Bull Bear Scenarios Chart:
3D Momentum Bear Cross Chart:
The worrying sign is the 3D momentum that is pending a bear cross that could as well send us washing down towards the target of the bearish H&S at $62-55 with a wick to $48-40 just like the November 2018 similar bear cross.
The momentum on the lower timeframes such as 1H 2H 3H 6H has switched to bearish as we head into closing the weekly bearish below the preferred support level of $114-115. Bottom line, the outlook remains bearish on the Weekly same is for Bitcoin.
So far I remain on the sidelines in fiat/cash until I see a high probability scenario present itself. The maximum date we should remain in fiat/cash is February 14 as the Constantinople Ethereum Hard Fork Rally will start on or before that date.
ETHUSD Short-term Sideways: See our telegram chat for the chart
ETHUSD Bull Bear Scenarios Chart:
Comment:
3D Chart published on Tradingview here - Like and Share!
Comment:
We are very likely to drop to the bottom of the extended falling wedge now at $94.50-93. See our telegram channel for the details
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Note:
1. If you wish to play it safe, you can wait for the top resistance of the first descending triangle to be broken at $120 and blood moon day to end (today) before buying more Ethereum on the dips.
2. You may start gradually buying in ALTSUSD pairs as well (10%) and slowly add more on dips if we break back above $120 (use same stop as Ethereum)