I think ETHUSD will rise again the next days, and I have been trying to find out when it will happen. The chart shows how Gann Fan, FIB and EW might give us a clue.
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Updated idea with new target:
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It might be a bounce at the 8/1 Gann line but I think it will descend even more after that.
Very interesting take but why do you use the Sept low as the pivot point? What is the thought process behind.
Also pardon my ignorance, are you using 5 wave because this is a bear market currently?
I do like that the 4th wave bounces off of $800 to which is the resistance on the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart. On the 4hr bar we are almost breaking the cloud which could set up a bullish breakout.
1. Gann Fan: I always seek the minimum and the maximum when I'm using the Gann fan. That often gives the best results. In this case I picked the September pivot point because it stands out. In addition the 8/1 line is avoiding the pivot point at The November -> The Gann fan is still valid.
The maximum point (1400$) has not been used as the 1/1 line here because I think it is still valid as long as the 1/8 line is avoiding the maximum pivot point. I've even rotated the Gann Fan counter clockwise after the published idea: The 1/1 line at the pivot point 570$ (February) which gives a better result on today levels (3/1 line is touching todays levels perfectly!).
2. EW and 4-5 wave: You are right, the idea is showing a bear market in a long term perspective. I choosed "Long" on behalf of the 4. wave. But I'm not sure if we are currently on the 5.wave (The 1. Wave could have been on the pivot point 770$ (January)). If so we are be on a turning point as we speak.
I appreciate the comments!
StaniecLukasz
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@Steffro, Very interesting approach, I like it. I've seen gann fans being used ontop of other things that would make it seem like its a conflict of interest so it's hard to make judgement calls on the anticipated moves.
However we might have spoken too soon, just after posting and me going to sleep ETH dropped 40$ on 1 4Hr bar and it looks like bearish momentum is taking over.
The culprit seems to be the same, it's the long term descending trendline, it tried to test it yesterday and it just got backhanded once again.
As a result a sloppy head and shoulders pattern could be completing if we go back to the 380's and then test the neckline in the 370's on the 4 hr bar.
StaniecLukasz
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@Steffro, But until it does we can say that we are neutral trend where we are now, although the decrease in volume can be bothersome, it's as if something big is going to happen
Steffro
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@StaniecLukasz, No doubt! I think it will rise quickly anytime soon :D
Steffro
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@StaniecLukasz, Seems like we got ourself a solid break out! And I think we are half way to the 4. wave right now. What do you think?
StaniecLukasz
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@Steffro, Sorry for late reply, got sidetracked with a bunch of things
StaniecLukasz
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@Steffro, This rally is crazy, I think that if BTC can break not only 9000 but conquer 9100 in the upcoming day or so, I think we have a monster break out to the upside. This is speaking on the Daily bar.
Same could be said for ETH, I believe that if we can break 660$ on the daily bar in the upcoming days, there's a very strong posibility for it to rip further, I wouldn't be surprised that it'll be a breakout like we saw on the 4 hr bar earlier in the week.
StaniecLukasz
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@Steffro, in my opinion even if we fail on this break out, I think that it's progress, it'll put us back into neutral trend, which it's a good thing, at the juncture we'll have a lot of support
Steffro
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@StaniecLukasz, We shall see:P I think we are on a bull trap right now (See below). It all depends on how strong it will be the next days. My next target is arround 770$ :)
Also pardon my ignorance, are you using 5 wave because this is a bear market currently?
I do like that the 4th wave bounces off of $800 to which is the resistance on the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart. On the 4hr bar we are almost breaking the cloud which could set up a bullish breakout.
Good Work!