Ethereum: Good news & bad news

Good news first: A strong bullish wave is still right around the block, only a few steps (days) away. This chart supports a strong bullish move, an inverted correction, before a major crash; but, all the numbers must be updated because of today's event.

The retrace is no longer a retrace. Based on time duration, we can still call the current move a retrace because it has been going for only two weeks. While we have a lower low mid-term, vs November 2025, the chart structure stays the same. There is room for a several months long relief rally before the full blown bearish cycle, the long-term bearish crash Q2-Q3 2026.

Good news. It is possible that Ethereum recovers right away, even tomorrow as everything is extremely oversold. It can take longer, a few more days or a week or so but, we are going up.

The trading volume signal is present, etc.

The numbers have been updated because today's low is a major low compared to late 2025. Now we know for certain that Ethereum will not produce a new all-time high and, also, that Ethereum will produce a major crash somewhere after Q1 this year. We have just 1-2 months of potential relief and then the resumption of the bearish cycle.

While the current move has been strong, on the bearish side, it is still only 16 days long.

In May-July 2025 ETH repeated the same chart pattern as we have now. While the market consolidated, prepared, for a major advance, there was a lower low. As soon as this lower low came in, we experienced sustained growth.

There are some differences now though. Back in 2025 we were in bullish territory, the action was happening coming out of a bullish breakout. Present day, the consolidation phase is happening out of a bearish move. This means that once the relief is over we get a continuation of the main move which is a major drop.

Since Crypto was bullish in 2025, we get bearish in 2026. The classic four years cycle, there is no way around it.

The bad news; 2026 is the year of the bear market.

The good news; there is plenty of room, and time, for a strong relief rally.

Updated numbers can be seen on the chart. The main targets on a strong rise are now $3,923 and $4,377, a lower high. Everything else is out of question.

After the up-move is over we can expect a crash lasting months and months and months. Can be anywhere between 4-6 months, followed by a choppy market and only in late 2026 can a bottom and recovery start to form.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

As with Bitcoin, we can obtain additional information once we have the monthly and weekly sessions close.

Namaste.