flyinkiwi10
Short

ETH swing trade and possible downturn

BINANCE:ETHUSDT   Ethereum / TetherUS
Hi,

Thanks for viewing. For some this may be helpful, for others a mish-mash of doubtful technical analysis . Sometimes I hit that nail right on the head (of course not every time - the BTC / ETH bull-run exceeded my expectations so far by a significant margin).

Short-term I expect a slight consolidation to not below 258, a bounce to around $270 followed by a continuation of the downward correction. How low will it go? I can't say yet. But ETH can be expected to outperform BTC on the way down - just like it has on the way up (as can be easily demonstrated if you were around in 2018). My view is based on an expectation of BTC not breaking its recent high of $9074.26 (on Binance) or ETH not exceeding $287.83. If either happens disregard all of this post (in which case the bull-run continues and I hope you took part).

These main factors point to the recent up-trend being nearly exhausted:
- Bearish RSI divergence (when the RSI trend is opposite to the price trend). This has been a favourite for a while and a reliable indication of the end of a trend - or nearing the end of a trend (also on 4 hourly time-frame).
- Elliot wave count, we are apparently in the final third of the third impulse wave up (wave (v)). So I expect another 2 - 4%of upside above the recent $265.83 swing high followed by a deep correction (watch for large buy orders on exchanges seeking to drive price up a little more into their short orders),
- The way my EW count is measuring up points to decisive resistance at the 0.618 to 0.65 fib levels ($265 - 267) - these are a common, favourite, and widely targeted area in which to enter a counter-trend position.

The 1 hour time-frame MACD MA cross-over and MACD histogram downward trend are more short-term signs of a smaller consolidation and don't really figure in my bearish view.

It has been a good run, but everything comes to an end. We should see a deep correction that doesn't set a new 12 month low - but which forms the basis of the next major bull-run. Good luck everyone and protect those funds.

I dont normally enter trades like this, but it worked out that way this time.

Trade closed: target reached
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