$ETHUSDT: Merge incoming, uptrend in the daily
$ETHUSDT is interesting, I've been bullish relatively vs Bitcoin for a while, but got out of my latest attempt at riding the pair trade in minor loss of 0.15% yesterday. I had secured some gains since my last publications before, and tried buying back after a dip. See related ideas for the last post. There is a lingering chance of forming a monthly uptrend in $ETHBTC, so I do like the idea of having some $ETHUSD exposure (although smaller than my Bitcoin long given the higher volatility and risk).
Fundamental events are interesting, as we approach the timeline for the Merge of the Beacon chain (secured by POS ) and the old chain secured by POW, which will occur at some point between now and the next 9 days give or take. Following this change, issuance of Ethereum will go down dramatically as most people know, and given the changes introduced with EIP1559, could eventually even become deflationary over time as fees are burnt at a greater rate than coins are created. Staking can result in an APR of 4.5-7% potentially, which might make it attractive if inflation rates come down over time. For price to form a long term uptrend, a larger than 10 month bar signal must fire, which isn't yet doable, but depending on how things evolve, could be achievable after October. Just a low probability scenario for now, but given the low risk of buying down here vs potential upside in that scenario, is something that I'd evaluate over time. As more and more data points confirm we are safe to hold, we can let the trade run and capture a big trend landing us huge reward to risk multiples. Hence my interest in being relatively early with buying strength after big declines, when people are not as interested as at the peak euphoria we had in April 2021 or in Dec 2021.
Let's see how it evolves, owning $ETH spot with say 5% of your capital might be a good decision here. Be wary of the average price level at which people staked coins a while back, that level can act as supply and slow down or even reverse any advance, if price were to test it next.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Fundamental events are interesting, as we approach the timeline for the Merge of the Beacon chain (secured by POS ) and the old chain secured by POW, which will occur at some point between now and the next 9 days give or take. Following this change, issuance of Ethereum will go down dramatically as most people know, and given the changes introduced with EIP1559, could eventually even become deflationary over time as fees are burnt at a greater rate than coins are created. Staking can result in an APR of 4.5-7% potentially, which might make it attractive if inflation rates come down over time. For price to form a long term uptrend, a larger than 10 month bar signal must fire, which isn't yet doable, but depending on how things evolve, could be achievable after October. Just a low probability scenario for now, but given the low risk of buying down here vs potential upside in that scenario, is something that I'd evaluate over time. As more and more data points confirm we are safe to hold, we can let the trade run and capture a big trend landing us huge reward to risk multiples. Hence my interest in being relatively early with buying strength after big declines, when people are not as interested as at the peak euphoria we had in April 2021 or in Dec 2021.
Let's see how it evolves, owning $ETH spot with say 5% of your capital might be a good decision here. Be wary of the average price level at which people staked coins a while back, that level can act as supply and slow down or even reverse any advance, if price were to test it next.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
(The aforementioned monthly signal, if one triggered, could predict upside to 10-15k over time)
Trade closed manually:
Signal failed, now trend is bearish in the weekly:
