ETH/USDT — Comprehensive EW & Fib Roadmap
**Structure:** From the **Jun ’22 bear-market low → Mar ’24** forms **A/3**; **Apr ’25** prints **B/4**. Since April we’re advancing in **daily Wave C**, now focusing on **(iv)–(v)** completion toward terminal levels. This continues my earlier public idea/thread on ETH’s multi-degree terminal advance.
---
1) Multi-timeframe context
* **Primary count:** Weekly corrective **A–B–C** from ATH with the current leg = **Wave C**. Within it, daily is progressing to finish **Wave (v) of C** (terminal risk once complete). Core EW rules/guidelines (no W2 > 100% of W1; W3 not the shortest; W4 typically avoids W1 territory; alternation) frame the count and invalidations. ([en.wikipedia.org][2])
* **Fibonacci basis:** Using standard retracement/extension clusters (0.382/0.5 retraces; 1.618/2.0 extensions) for targets and pullback zones.
---
2) 2025 zoom-in (from the Apr ’25 **B/4** low)
* We have a completed **(i)–(iii)** push into the **Aug ’25 high ≈ $4,956** (marked **Wave 3** on the chart).
* **Wave (iv)** most likely **bottomed 10 Oct ’25 ≈ $3,429**, landing in the blue retrace box (**0.382 ≈ $3,575**; **0.5 ≈ $3,233**).
* From that low, price carved a fresh **1–2** to the upside → launching pad for **③ of (v)** toward terminal targets (bearish reversal risk once (v) completes).
*(All levels and labels are taken from the provided chart screenshots.)*
---
3) Confluence zones & path to completion
* **Resistance pivots from prior swings:** **1.618 ≈ $4,528.7** then **2.0 ≈ $5,099**.
* **Terminal target cluster for (v) of C:**
* **$5,900** (first box edge),
* **$6,447** (upper confluence),
* **$8,731** (stretch/throw-over if momentum overshoots).
These align with typical EW/Fib projections for a terminal wave; diagonals often end with throw-overs and sharp reversals thereafter.
---
4) Risk management & invalidation
* **Structure invalidation of the immediate 1–2→3:** sustained break **below $3,200–$3,180** (beneath 0.5 box & October spike-low context) = defer (v) and expect a deeper/complex (iv).
* **Momentum tell:** A push into the $5.9k–$6.45k band with fading momentum/divergence would fit terminal behavior; diagonals frequently reverse hard after completion.
---
5) Alternate (lower-probability)
* If price closes **below $3,429** and holds, treat the current advance as incomplete corrective work; wait for a **new 1–2** before re-engaging on the long side. (Rule-based posture per EW hard rules/guidelines.)
---
## Trade Idea (non-advice; execution-ready)
**Bias:** Long the **1–2** base for a run into the terminal cluster, then de-risk into strength.
**Entry (Option A — pullback ladder):**
* **$3,575 → $3,233** (0.382–0.5 “blue box”). Scale in 3–4 tranches.
**Entry (Option B — confirmation add):**
* Add on decisive **daily close > $4,529** (1.618 pivot) targeting the $5.1k box next.
**Stop / Invalidation:**
* Hard stop **$3,180** (beneath the 0.5 box & Oct spike low). Re-assess if hit.
**Targets / Scale-out plan:**
* **T1:** **$5,100** (2.0 ext / prior resistance).
* **T2:** **$5,900** (terminal box edge).
* **T3:** **$6,447** (upper confluence).
* **Stretch:** **$8,731** only if momentum remains strong (take partials aggressively; diagonals can “throw-over” then snap back). ([TradingView][1])
**Position sizing & management:**
* Risk **≤1–2%** of equity per idea; trail under higher lows once price converts **$4,529** to support; aggressively reduce above **$5.9k** if momentum divergences appear. ([Elliott Wave International][4])
---
Reference / Continuation
This analysis continues my prior ETH terminal-advance roadmap on TradingView; review for the higher-timeframe diagonal context and publishing notes. ([TradingView][1])
---
Disclosure
Educational analysis only; **not financial advice**. Risk per trade **≤ 1–2%**.
**Structure:** From the **Jun ’22 bear-market low → Mar ’24** forms **A/3**; **Apr ’25** prints **B/4**. Since April we’re advancing in **daily Wave C**, now focusing on **(iv)–(v)** completion toward terminal levels. This continues my earlier public idea/thread on ETH’s multi-degree terminal advance.
---
1) Multi-timeframe context
* **Primary count:** Weekly corrective **A–B–C** from ATH with the current leg = **Wave C**. Within it, daily is progressing to finish **Wave (v) of C** (terminal risk once complete). Core EW rules/guidelines (no W2 > 100% of W1; W3 not the shortest; W4 typically avoids W1 territory; alternation) frame the count and invalidations. ([en.wikipedia.org][2])
* **Fibonacci basis:** Using standard retracement/extension clusters (0.382/0.5 retraces; 1.618/2.0 extensions) for targets and pullback zones.
---
2) 2025 zoom-in (from the Apr ’25 **B/4** low)
* We have a completed **(i)–(iii)** push into the **Aug ’25 high ≈ $4,956** (marked **Wave 3** on the chart).
* **Wave (iv)** most likely **bottomed 10 Oct ’25 ≈ $3,429**, landing in the blue retrace box (**0.382 ≈ $3,575**; **0.5 ≈ $3,233**).
* From that low, price carved a fresh **1–2** to the upside → launching pad for **③ of (v)** toward terminal targets (bearish reversal risk once (v) completes).
*(All levels and labels are taken from the provided chart screenshots.)*
---
3) Confluence zones & path to completion
* **Resistance pivots from prior swings:** **1.618 ≈ $4,528.7** then **2.0 ≈ $5,099**.
* **Terminal target cluster for (v) of C:**
* **$5,900** (first box edge),
* **$6,447** (upper confluence),
* **$8,731** (stretch/throw-over if momentum overshoots).
These align with typical EW/Fib projections for a terminal wave; diagonals often end with throw-overs and sharp reversals thereafter.
---
4) Risk management & invalidation
* **Structure invalidation of the immediate 1–2→3:** sustained break **below $3,200–$3,180** (beneath 0.5 box & October spike-low context) = defer (v) and expect a deeper/complex (iv).
* **Momentum tell:** A push into the $5.9k–$6.45k band with fading momentum/divergence would fit terminal behavior; diagonals frequently reverse hard after completion.
---
5) Alternate (lower-probability)
* If price closes **below $3,429** and holds, treat the current advance as incomplete corrective work; wait for a **new 1–2** before re-engaging on the long side. (Rule-based posture per EW hard rules/guidelines.)
---
## Trade Idea (non-advice; execution-ready)
**Bias:** Long the **1–2** base for a run into the terminal cluster, then de-risk into strength.
**Entry (Option A — pullback ladder):**
* **$3,575 → $3,233** (0.382–0.5 “blue box”). Scale in 3–4 tranches.
**Entry (Option B — confirmation add):**
* Add on decisive **daily close > $4,529** (1.618 pivot) targeting the $5.1k box next.
**Stop / Invalidation:**
* Hard stop **$3,180** (beneath the 0.5 box & Oct spike low). Re-assess if hit.
**Targets / Scale-out plan:**
* **T1:** **$5,100** (2.0 ext / prior resistance).
* **T2:** **$5,900** (terminal box edge).
* **T3:** **$6,447** (upper confluence).
* **Stretch:** **$8,731** only if momentum remains strong (take partials aggressively; diagonals can “throw-over” then snap back). ([TradingView][1])
**Position sizing & management:**
* Risk **≤1–2%** of equity per idea; trail under higher lows once price converts **$4,529** to support; aggressively reduce above **$5.9k** if momentum divergences appear. ([Elliott Wave International][4])
---
Reference / Continuation
This analysis continues my prior ETH terminal-advance roadmap on TradingView; review for the higher-timeframe diagonal context and publishing notes. ([TradingView][1])
---
Disclosure
Educational analysis only; **not financial advice**. Risk per trade **≤ 1–2%**.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.