My previous posts on ethereum where optimistic, I can't deny there were some feelings involved. Now, I worked this chart as cold as it could get... just facts, no sentiment.
First of all, the general picture at the crypto market is reflected on red, negative numbers. There are several factors that must be observed:
Vitalik's technically honest but unhelpfull comments on ethereum's scalability
Banker's lapdogs (bloomberg, forbes, fortune and the likes) propaganda
Many people came to crypto with the dream of getting rich just by pouring money in... no market knowledge or education.
The list could go on, but this serves my point. Crypto exploded not because regular, educated traders got into it. It exploded because people started to pour in their money in the hopes of getting rich. Much like the gold rush! Now, with the first corrections and retracements a good deal of people lost all their money... panic sells everywhere. This people won't come back with more money! They got scared!
Now, add to that scenario all the negative press. More people got scared. And the cherry on top of the pie? HARDFORK!!! Like it or not, Bitcoin is the grandpa of all crypto, and if bitcoin sneezes, ethereum gets pneumonia.
Truth is, this is not going to die nor going to end. August 1st will pass, hardfork or not, things will be sorted out and the magnetism of this market will get strong again. Will more money be lost? yes... there is still money to lose on this arena.
But enough rants! Let's get to the chart, which is basically a downtrend channel that started the moment ethereum went to its all-time-high. From there I consider the beginning of the retracement, for what I used Fibonacci's retracement tool. The yellow circles outline the places where the price touched or broke each fib level. So basically, we have one last stop, which is the 100USD mark from May 2017. If that support is broken I honestly don't know where ethereum's price is going to stop.
The truth is, ethereum is good tech... flaws? yeah! limitations? of course! People, lets get real... Microsoft Windows is the most buggy operating system ever and is widely used, most popular (not talking about mobiles). Ethereum is being considered for many projects, backed by some big guys and in general appealing to some tech enthusiasts. Despite other coin fanboys or tech purists.
If this coin gets to 100USD, I'll surely load up.
This is just my point of view and it's not intended or recommended to be used as investment advice.
Comment
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Seize opportunities, but be cautious... this is not over.
This analysis is just amazing and i think you're absolutely right! ETH will have another fall and after that skyrocket to next Galaxy! (depending on what happens to BTC on August 1st)... This is just toooo much fun =P
AzrulAzir
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still on track ^^
Jemil
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@DianKemala, broke the subchannel, but still on main :) and I do hope it keeps going that way.
mdimaano619
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Great post, thank you. Definitely will load up if reaches $100. Still good to buy now.
Jemil
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@mdimaano619, Thanks! glad you liked it. And yes, actually any price below 180 is a great buy.
Zotem
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@Jemil, why is any buy below 180 a good buy? Kind of a resistants level?
Jemil
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@Zotem, Basically marketcap. You may argue that marketcap has nothing to do with price, and you may be right. But being the 2nd crypto in market capitalization gives ethereum some good rep... and having scored an all time high of 400 usd makes people automatically think 200 is cheap. That is why I see any tag under 180 as a good buying oportunity; of course, the cheaper, the better.
jar17
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I agree with you!!
What about with the last rise ethereum show?
Do you think it will delay the fall?
Jemil
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@jar17, Sorry for replying too late... I went to bed, then got up to run some errands... Not enough volume, not enough impulse. Actually, if it reaches the 100USD mark we can see a nice 3 dive impulse, so, depending on the indicators when that moment comes, we should have a very strong bullish trend.
lucasvg
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This is a real, no unrealistic, prediction. Good job! :)