A low selloff after the uptrend expired and we reached some hysterical highs.
Current setups implies that if this bar doesn't reach the target signaled by the box before it closes, it's possible to see price reverse from here.
I labeled the range expansion bars on the daily (which looks like a perfect uptrend to me so far), and the stop loss level for the last one, as well as take profit (65% chance long trade).
I also labeled the 4h range expansion bars, the light green and red ones, ones are all working, which is a good sign.
I'm buying and building a large position, aiming for 0.012 or higher, but need to see more proof by price building a mode higher, with 16 bars or more at one price.
Also, where can I find a detailed explanation of Tim's time at mode methodology?
Tim has plenty of educational charts, I'm afraid that's as good as it gets. I've spent a lot of time, learning from him, hanging out at his key hidden levels chatrooms.
Definitely worth your time.
Downtrend expires tomorrow at 8:00 according to cryptrader's chart.
Target already reached and price formed a nice up bar with very strong volume.
This drop did stop the range expansion bar but it also started forming a 9 bar mode there, should it hit 11 bars we would have a new accumulation level from where to trade breakouts higher.
Let's watch it, if we see 5 4h bars without new lows, and the downtrend expires, we can maybe take a long trade from this area.
If we see a larger than 10 bars mode build, and higher, that will be great news for longs.
-the 'timer' replicates the duration of previous moves, and in this case the module is completed on the pale dotted line?
-as i understand, your post suggest two independent buy signals, buy if time runs out, buy more if price loses above support? or both need to take place to generate the buy? in this case, one buys if bear module runs out of time AND price closes above support (0.00458)?
Right now, if you look at the daily, trend is massively up.
I added those light cream lines, which are called monowaves in neowave parlance, to illustrate the daily waves.
According to neowave, the timing of the correction in a trending impulse needs to be proportional to the duration of the advance, so we can't expect a massive wave 3 rally before we reach that fib time 2 or 2.618 values on chart (vertical green and blue lines). Take this with a grain of salt, because I'm barely a beginner when it comes to neowave. It does make sense though, since smart money will want to accumulate as many coins as possible, and without a fundamental release, there won't be any significant rally.
As you can see, the sharpest moves have been up, so the move down would appear like a correction before more upside.
Volume seems to confirm this, so unless interest in Ethereum dies off in a couple days, I think it's safe to assume the uptrend will resume.
As for the time at mode setups, the counter trend bearish setup, fired a short on the bright red down bar, with a duration of 9 bars, and a target of 0.0031 based on the range of the consolidation it broke out from.
IF this target isn't reached in time, or it's reached too fast, price tends to go the other way and resume the move up.
Even when this happens, my analysis tells me that ETHXBT needs time to cooldown before it can rally sharply again. The rally will most likely match some news release, or a new feature presentation or whatnot. So, until then, the market will move sideways, since nothing changed, but trading volume tells me this isn't your ordinary scam coin of the week, which makes me want to be ready for when it does rally 300-1000%.
The mode is the most frequent price in a leg, which you start counting from an important low or high. (a high or low that has no new highs or lows after it in 5 bars is the confirmation to start counting)
The big range bars signal the breakout is valid, and the range box around price action that touches the mode gives you an estimated price target when proyected from the mode.
Mode is the most frequent value in a distribution, in statistics (it's not called 'module').
Hope that helps.
Regarding margin trading, I've looked at it and concluded it's incredibly dangerous and akin to gambling because of the volatility in ETH. When it's liquid enough to predict direction, range is insane and when it's lower volatility it's an unpredictable low volume chop. So, for now, my strategy is long only, without margin, and accumulating when we get low prices, for as long as the uptrend is valid.
Study the rates for loans, I believe a good strategy is investing without using margin and lending btc, for example making a currency basket, figuring out which are stable and offer good rates for loans, and keeping tabs of the price vs btc, and the price of btc vs the dollar.
There are potentially great lower risk and decent yield opportunities combining investing and liquidity providing here but I'll leave the specifics to you.
I'm working on this, for now maintaining a split between btc and eth.
Tim West has posted ideas here, about how to manage a portfolio, aiming at maintaining an equal dollar exposure in two assets for longer term holds.
I believe this applies here, check it out:
I haven't seen big volume selling, and the most activity has been on the buy side.
Also the chart shows no new lows in many 4h bars after a strong buying surge that made some huge buy walls pop up when it hit the lows.
This kind of logic is what gets you to sell low and buy high.
I made some mistakes just like you before. As time goes by you will start seeing the market from a different perspective.. As a beginner you rushed in because you thought you were missing the action, right? Anyway at this point it's really hard to be sure that the price will go back up or exceed 0.008x levels and that is because there's just too much supply of premined ethers that were sold during IPO.. You have about 43.75 million ethers that were sold last year and you now have miners who will keep bringing in more supply. The entire volume hasn't even reached 2 millions so there's huge incentive to sell as long as price is above IPO price.. i think 1000 ethers per bitcoin... so about 0.001x.. So you see where this is going right? once price hits below or near that levels then sellers will wait for another opportunity..
If not, it can go down and sit at 0.001 for ages until it's forgotten and it starts picking up.
This is why I opted for an investment style approach, and I'm applying what Tim depicts in his gold and stocks vs SPY charts above (portfolio management). You read that chart? If not, do so.
We'd need to know the btc and the eth exchange rate in usd to do this and keep these 3 variables in check.
That's #1, then we have other more subtle traits in the price action that suggests there is more upside pending and that we won't see lower lows than 0.0041 again.