IvanLabrie
Long

Ethereum: bearish time at mode signal target not reached in time

KRAKEN:ETHXBT   ETHXBT
We have a clear long setup in Ethereum.
A low volume selloff after the uptrend expired and we reached some hysterical highs.
Current setups implies that if this bar doesn't reach the bearish target signaled by the box before it closes, it's possible to see price reverse from here.
I labeled the range expansion bars on the daily (which looks like a perfect uptrend to me so far), and the stop loss level for the last one, as well as take profit (65% chance long trade).
I also labeled the 4h range expansion bars, the light green and red ones, bullish ones are all working, which is a good sign.
I'm buying and building a large position, aiming for 0.012 or higher, but need to see more proof by price building a mode higher, with 16 bars or more at one price.

Good luck!

Ivan.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
moorekapital
a year ago
Very Clean Text Book Release From Accumulation. See how price respected the range extension level, 0.00556
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
a year ago
Time at mode works like a charm for these instruments (or stocks).
Look at Tim's TSLA charts...he took some heroic trades there. Also he had some determination, to hold for so long.
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moorekapital moorekapital
a year ago
I hope to see a continuation for a second leg up from here, MM = (Uptrend expiry price -16bar mode price)
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moorekapital moorekapital
a year ago
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
a year ago
I'm no ABCD guy, but yes, you can proyect to the next mode when it forms, it'll be more accurate.
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CrazyC
a year ago
very historical
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babad00k
a year ago
Great to see that you are looking at ethereum too! One question what do you mean by the higher mode/ 16 bars comment? do you mean you rather hold on opening the long until the price has made a higher high, AND stabilised for 16 4-hour bars up there? Am i understanding this correctly?

Also, where can I find a detailed explanation of Tim's time at mode methodology?
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IvanLabrie PRO babad00k
a year ago
You can aggressively buy support, but confirmation of a new rally will come when we see price form a new 16 bar horizontal level, higher than the first. And a breakout from it.

Tim has plenty of educational charts, I'm afraid that's as good as it gets. I've spent a lot of time, learning from him, hanging out at his key hidden levels chatrooms.
Definitely worth your time.
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blackswan
a year ago
trade with caution though, i think a lot of early eth buyers are now figuring out how to move funds over to poloniex using command line so there should be ample supply soon so market movers will get dumped.. Don't forget initial IPO price was about 2000 ethers per bitcoin on average so total pre-launch sale was 43.75 million ethers worth 21,878 bitcoins (bitcoin price was high at that time)...
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IvanLabrie PRO blackswan
a year ago
I know.
But once more features are introduced it's likely to see price increase, for as long as smart money finds it viable.
I'm not trading with margin, that's incredibly risky.
Risking that my coins go to 0, so, keep invested money in sane amounts.
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More buys here.
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At Poloniex, the 0.0045 line wasn't hit (it's the highest volume exchange, I think the chart will be more reliable there).
I bought some more on the way down. Will convert some back to btc if we retest 0.007999, to make the rest of the trade risk free,
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Here's a poloniex chart, it's a shame that I don't have a poloniex price feed at my disposal here...the volume is wildly different, making kraken almost irrelevant.
https://cryptrader.com/c/oml57IpO
Downtrend expires tomorrow at 8:00 according to cryptrader's chart.
Target already reached and price formed a nice up bar with very strong volume.
This drop did stop the range expansion bar but it also started forming a 9 bar mode there, should it hit 11 bars we would have a new accumulation level from where to trade breakouts higher.
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Noobincrypt PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
based on what ltc did before the massive rise i figured wed almost touch .004 before new moon, hopefully we get some nice targets from here
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Noobincrypt PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
also with the btc and btc xt stuff going on, i hope more funds will move to eth and ltc, adding to the tech analysis
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IvanLabrie PRO Noobincrypt
a year ago
I think we will see a move up from here, but we'd need to see a larger mode build, right now I see 2 10 bar sideways accumulation areas, but it's clear that whoever's buying is more comfortable buying in the lower end of the spectrum.
Let's watch it, if we see 5 4h bars without new lows, and the downtrend expires, we can maybe take a long trade from this area.
If we see a larger than 10 bars mode build, and higher, that will be great news for longs.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
https://cryptrader.com/c/5fypnhen
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babad00k IvanLabrie
a year ago
Hi, trying to learn here, so a couple of questions:

-the 'timer' replicates the duration of previous moves, and in this case the module is completed on the pale dotted line?

-as i understand, your post suggest two independent buy signals, buy if time runs out, buy more if price loses above support? or both need to take place to generate the buy? in this case, one buys if bear module runs out of time AND price closes above support (0.00458)?

Thanks!
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IvanLabrie PRO babad00k
a year ago
It's more complex than that, hard to explain in a few sentences.

Right now, if you look at the daily, trend is massively up.
I added those light cream lines, which are called monowaves in neowave parlance, to illustrate the daily waves.
According to neowave, the timing of the correction in a trending impulse needs to be proportional to the duration of the advance, so we can't expect a massive wave 3 rally before we reach that fib time 2 or 2.618 values on chart (vertical green and blue lines). Take this with a grain of salt, because I'm barely a beginner when it comes to neowave. It does make sense though, since smart money will want to accumulate as many coins as possible, and without a fundamental release, there won't be any significant rally.

As you can see, the sharpest moves have been up, so the move down would appear like a correction before more upside.
Volume seems to confirm this, so unless interest in Ethereum dies off in a couple days, I think it's safe to assume the uptrend will resume.

As for the time at mode setups, the counter trend bearish setup, fired a short on the bright red down bar, with a duration of 9 bars, and a target of 0.0031 based on the range of the consolidation it broke out from.
IF this target isn't reached in time, or it's reached too fast, price tends to go the other way and resume the move up.

Even when this happens, my analysis tells me that ETHXBT needs time to cooldown before it can rally sharply again. The rally will most likely match some news release, or a new feature presentation or whatnot. So, until then, the market will move sideways, since nothing changed, but trading volume tells me this isn't your ordinary scam coin of the week, which makes me want to be ready for when it does rally 300-1000%.

The mode is the most frequent price in a leg, which you start counting from an important low or high. (a high or low that has no new highs or lows after it in 5 bars is the confirmation to start counting)
The big range bars signal the breakout is valid, and the range box around price action that touches the mode gives you an estimated price target when proyected from the mode.
Mode is the most frequent value in a distribution, in statistics (it's not called 'module').
Hope that helps.

Regarding margin trading, I've looked at it and concluded it's incredibly dangerous and akin to gambling because of the volatility in ETH. When it's liquid enough to predict direction, range is insane and when it's lower volatility it's an unpredictable low volume chop. So, for now, my strategy is long only, without margin, and accumulating when we get low prices, for as long as the uptrend is valid.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
*vertical green and gray lines* (fib time)
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
let me ask, could go up 0.01 ETH not?
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Yes, it could theoretically reach 0.026, but we need a setup to go long aiming that high with measurable risk.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I bought at a high price, 0.0085, I'm hoping it comes up 0.01 for sale
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Yes, beginner mistake.
You will have to be patient.
Can you buy more at a lower price?
If you can, you can average out the entry buying the lows. I'll update here when we get a safe entry long and you can tag along. Don't use margin!
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
yes, I would buy, at what price is safe?
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
The range between 0.00475-0.00655 should hold for a while, but try to buy the lows if anything.
The thing is, not a PRICE to buy, but a price AND time when the chart suggests it's about to explode up.
Right now, it won't happen, it needs time to cool down after the recent rally.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
thank you, I'll buy at the price you offer.
You can predict what the ETH in this week? go up or down?
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babad00k minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Keep in mind that if the price indeed heads up again, it will probably reach a higher level than 0.01
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minhthanhqnv babad00k
a year ago
hi, I believe it will go up and reached 0.01 soon
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
We need patience.
Study the rates for loans, I believe a good strategy is investing without using margin and lending btc, for example making a currency basket, figuring out which are stable and offer good rates for loans, and keeping tabs of the price vs btc, and the price of btc vs the dollar.
There are potentially great lower risk and decent yield opportunities combining investing and liquidity providing here but I'll leave the specifics to you.
I'm working on this, for now maintaining a split between btc and eth.
Tim West has posted ideas here, about how to manage a portfolio, aiming at maintaining an equal dollar exposure in two assets for longer term holds.

I believe this applies here, check it out:
GOLD IN A PORTFOLIO - HOW TO BUY AND SELL
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I'll post an idea later.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
We can combine these two ideas:

Portfolio Management Position Sizing Example:  Stock versus SPY
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
This would help us devise an investing strategy for bitcoin and altcoins.
You could build a basket of your preferred coins and keep the loans profits while trimming and rebalancing as you go. Food for your though.
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babad00k IvanLabrie
a year ago
Hi thanks a LOT for the awesome reply. I really appreciate it. I'm slowl digesting it. If i have any more questions or comments I'll post later. Again, thanks a lot. Very useful stuff.
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moorekapital IvanLabrie
a year ago
Very much instructive for me!
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Rebalancing the portfolio in this sideways range is quite profitable.
Aiming at keeping exposure at 30% of the btc amount I have.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
what you think about ETH this week, it has come up again or not?
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
I'm buying the low range.
Using an investment strategy, keeping 30% of my btc value in ETH.
You can try buying if you have strict rules for it, I posted a link above, read it please.
I think we need to wait until the 19th or later to see a rally.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
Yes. So I'll wait until tomorrow.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I think the price can be reduced to 0.002x
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Based on?
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I see them selling a lot and no one will buy more, among them many investors have purchased over 0.006 and no one continues to buy, they expect prices to go down.
So I think this week the price will continue to go down
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Markets don't follow this kind of logic.
I haven't seen big volume selling, and the most activity has been on the buy side.
Also the chart shows no new lows in many 4h bars after a strong buying surge that made some huge buy walls pop up when it hit the lows.
This kind of logic is what gets you to sell low and buy high.
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blackswan minhthanhqnv
a year ago
@minhthanhqnv

I made some mistakes just like you before. As time goes by you will start seeing the market from a different perspective.. As a beginner you rushed in because you thought you were missing the action, right? Anyway at this point it's really hard to be sure that the price will go back up or exceed 0.008x levels and that is because there's just too much supply of premined ethers that were sold during IPO.. You have about 43.75 million ethers that were sold last year and you now have miners who will keep bringing in more supply. The entire volume hasn't even reached 2 millions so there's huge incentive to sell as long as price is above IPO price.. i think 1000 ethers per bitcoin... so about 0.001x.. So you see where this is going right? once price hits below or near that levels then sellers will wait for another opportunity..
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IvanLabrie PRO blackswan
a year ago
Or not.
The chart says otherwise.
There is no sell volume, in comparison.
We need a clear setup and I believe we will get one this week.
I'll update the chart once it materializes.
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blackswan IvanLabrie
a year ago
thanks Ivan, love your work by the way, just trying to give some advice to beginners coz i've been there before... i haven't really looked into the chart so i was just talking from common sense point of view.. the potential to cash out is growing and all i'm saying is that despite market movers buying on the downtrend for them to reach back to 0.01x levels is not going to be that easy, because by then sell pressure would've been built up.. not impossible but gets harderd... if you notice Kraken has made ethereum wallet import processes user friendly and is now acting as entry point where sellers are loading the coins onto Kraken and then transfer out to Poloniex to sell because liquidity is high, this tells me there are probably many average early buyers are still figuring out how to transfer their coins to exchanges. Just common sense.. :) anyway this doesn't mean i'm not trading just that 0.004 to 0.003 is still overpriced for new buyers and still profitable incentive for early buyers... 0.001x would be good time to load up...
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IvanLabrie PRO blackswan
a year ago
Yes, but you don't always get the best price if the trend is strong.
If not, it can go down and sit at 0.001 for ages until it's forgotten and it starts picking up.
This is why I opted for an investment style approach, and I'm applying what Tim depicts in his gold and stocks vs SPY charts above (portfolio management). You read that chart? If not, do so.

Portfolio Management Position Sizing Example:  Stock versus SPY

GOLD IN A PORTFOLIO - HOW TO BUY AND SELL


We'd need to know the btc and the eth exchange rate in usd to do this and keep these 3 variables in check.
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minhthanhqnv blackswan
a year ago
Thank you, I will wait 1-2 years. for prices to come back I will sell.
Now I sell very heavy losses
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Yes, being patient will be best. If you bought the low range you'd be selling in profit now. Read the charts above too, good information.
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Nice range expansion in the last 4h bar. We might get a rally from this level soon.

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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
prices start to go down?
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
Why? Read my chart, it's visually intuitive. We have a sharp 42° advance, with volume increasing as it rallies, then a smaller degree decline that consumes more time than price range, and has smaller and declining volume.
That's #1, then we have other more subtle traits in the price action that suggests there is more upside pending and that we won't see lower lows than 0.0041 again.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I see in POLONIEX that began arriving, they sold off
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
What do you mean?
Don't worry so much about intraday fluctuations. The chart says that we need to wait.
If you bought at 0.0041-45 you can sell some at 0.0048-56.
Try to catch oversold extremes for now and sell when it moves up.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I saw it start to go up, kaka
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Very nice reaction to the time at mode downtrend failure.
Bigger than the previous one but still not convincing enough.
We can continue to play this range, if it retraces above 0.00454, we can go long and close at 0.0052 to make some money.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
a year ago
I bought at 0.00460 and sell 0.00560

according to the price you have to continue to go up, or down?
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
a year ago
See updated idea.
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moorekapital IvanLabrie
a year ago
Great job so far. Now , We simply need ETH above the mode 0.00667 !
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Working beautifully.
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