IvanLabrie
Long

ETHXBT: Update

KRAKEN:ETHXBT   ETHXBT
Ethereum seems to have picked up on activity after being really illiquid for the past week.
We have a clear mode at 0.0051, and an interesting volume and range expansion out of it.
If we start seeing new highs every 5 days at the very least, we can say that the uptrend has resumed and we can expect to hit prices over 0.0081 again.
I'm rebalancing my portfolio, keeping a 70/30% weigh, so every 5%+ price swing is either a buy or sell to maintain the BTC value of my ETH intact. If you're trading with margin, let me say that you're playing with fire. ATR is simply too wide.
If investing without leverage, you can buy dips to today's 50% range from open to high after the close. As long as we start seeing new highs every 5 days we'll be safe.
Good luck!
Ivan.
Pretty unrealistic target imo, buut we'll see.:)
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Unrealistic on what basis?
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Just an intuition, nothing special, so don't worry:)
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oldstout IvanLabrie
This target is realistic for me with news about okcoin adding ETH or serious plans about adding ETH officially announced by okcoin:)
+1 Reply
See? I didn't know that, just reading the chart tells me something fundamental's up.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Know what? I don't say that okcoin will add it. There's no such news! I'm just saying 300% price up needs news LIKE that....
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It was a nice move here, but where do you see 300%?
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oldstout IvanLabrie
I said 300% without counting, about max long target of this chart. Not exactly 300% but about 262% (0.0055->0.0144).
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Ah, yeah, gotcha.
We will most likely see some news event if we see a rally. Not possible otherwise.
We can know where accumulation took place from the chart though, they can't hide their tracks so much.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
now in polo has a sold 41000 ETH, and everything collapsed
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oldstout minhthanhqnv
someone had tight stop loss or open a short. nice opportunity to buy now imho
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yes, I bought 550, and wait
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oldstout minhthanhqnv
Nice. :) Target to sell?
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minhthanhqnv minhthanhqnv
to sell 570-590
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you see them hanging oversold, you fear not achieve the goal. I saw more than 10,000 btc to put the price up 0.0103
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nice !
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No brainer buy level reached and we retested the high like I was saying we would.
Hope you guys bought in below 0.0056 (and above 0.0051)
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
nice. i buy 510, sell all 630
+1 Reply
Polo buy wall accumulating. If we don't see a big party ruiner sell we should still go up a little. I am thinking selling half at 0.00625 if we get there and then catch it back at 0.00585 along next swing. Swinging is what we did last time at this level a week ago (when going down). I think volume is not convincing for rally to start yet but have to be monitored.
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Yes, I'll keep on swinging with part of my position. I still think this is the best approach for the longer term hold. We know all the major fundamental events will take time, and we also know the potential for a rally to 0.01 or higher is certainly there, so let's stick to our plan. Mine at least:
-5%+ swings, I'll either buy more if it drops or sell some if it goes up until my BTC amount in ETH is 30% of my total BTC at Polo.
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it seems to hold. i sold half at 605 and moved to poloniex
+1 Reply
could THIS be the fundamental we are waiting for?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3j4e6u/etherplan_welcomes_juan_llanos_and_nick_szabo_to/
+2 Reply
Really interesting, this most certainly looks like something of that calibre.
Let's keep swinging!
I'm sticking with the 30%/70% plan.
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yen21 IvanLabrie
nick szabo please
+1 Reply
Signaturas IvanLabrie
Smth going wrong with ETH) Mb no bull mode ahead?
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IvanLabrie PRO Signaturas
Why?
did you read my chart?
That green zone's a buy.
I bought the dip.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
it will go to 300
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
Guys, trade what you see.
I draw charts for a reason.
The stop is 0.0051499 here.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
stop at 514 and then will continue to go down 460
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
Whatever you say...:)
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ambrosia PRO IvanLabrie
Did you get stopped out or are you giving this a chance?
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Hi, I'm not trading margin. My strategy is more of an investment strategy with ETH.
I bought at multiple prices, some at 0.00413, same at 0.0045, some at 0.0051 and higher.
I've always sold partially once price rose 5% or more too, and bought back when it dropped 5% or more.
You allocate a fixed % of your BTC to ETH, and constantly rebalance the portfolio like this.
In the long run, you've not only accumulated ETH, in case it rallies to my target of 0.01045, but you've also made small profits from each 5%+ fluctuation in price.
Stop loss would be needed for margin, but not for this strategy.
Even then, 2.5x leverage in ETHBTC is suicide, and basically gambling, since there's no measurable way of having an advantage by using it without risking WAY more than 1-5%. To have leverage increase your profits, you'd need a hefty amount of btc in the margin account, which automatically is at risk of being margin called, since the price fluctuations are too wide to keep a sane stop loss, while multiplying your funds by 2.5x.
If not using it to its full extent, what's the use of it? Answer: it's there to encourage people to gamble and lose so the house can profit (the house=poloniex)
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herkuljee IvanLabrie
Good job so far with the chart. Those dips seem to frighten some people.. I think it's a natural reaction.
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I love it. Every time people panic I buy. :)
We must learn to use our emotions...when I fear, I double up.
One thing though, don't trick yourself into rationalizing these emotions, cause that'd be fake. Talkinge genuine scared to death feel here.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Talking*

Ref: George Soros "Alchemy of finance", great read.
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If you're trading with margin, let me say that you're playing with fire.

Looks like fire is lucrative biz. your chart is outdated, CCO Tual leaves the boat, more ETH to hit the market from freebies for supporters, devs & miners like 5M.
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IvanLabrie PRO tester2014
Huh?
I don't trade margin...margin is suicidal.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Graphically intuitive representation of shrinking momentum, coiling before the triangle thrust (up).
See you all at 0.0085-0.01+.
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minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
it can not happen, a series of problems vulnerabilities, system security was discovered, I believe will be one dump ETH
+ Security Alert
+ Security Advisory
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
I see no drop.
If it drops I'm buying.
You know my reccomendation: as long as price forms modes higher and higher, people are buying and accumulating coins.
I'll continue to buy dips and sell rallies with part of my coins to produce passive profits while I wait for ETH to rally and hit my targets ultimately.
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Very low % of agrees on this idea. Buying the dip continues to work.
Update:

snapshot
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
4h is too noisy for the larger picture, regarding time at mode, but can offer some more granular detail about the situation:

snapshot


See what I see?
+1 Reply
minhthanhqnv IvanLabrie
it is about to go down below 400k
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IvanLabrie PRO minhthanhqnv
You're really pessimistic mate.
Back that 'feel' with charts and/or trades.
You will find that often, these 'feelings' betray you. You can learn to do the opposite too, can be useful.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
This is a visual map of the time spent at price profile:

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
snapshot


Ignoring the presale selloff bars, we get this. A more accurate representation of price action, with bigger market participation.
Target on chart, profile isn't balanced yet, so that high is pending.
We did breach the range expansion bar support now, so we might see some more sideways grinding or a small selloff, ideal to buy the dip and sell the next rally.
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Signaturas IvanLabrie
How we can ignore them "presale selloff bars"? I think we are in wave II in ETH ( I started during iPO), and now is a B wave of correction (triangle), so no rally ahead...
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IvanLabrie PRO Signaturas
Trying imaginary EW out of imaginary ipo bars is not my style. Sorry.
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timwest PRO IvanLabrie
That is a great profile chart you have done. If you do those by hand, you will really see the power of that methodology to "show" trade setups. You can see how the two bars on the chart with the "highest lows" are the supply level on the chart. Look for the price distribution to become "skewed" in one direction and then it will take off. Great job Ivan!
+2 Reply
Hey, any new ideas about ETH? It would be great if you would share some new chart:)
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I'll update it from home in 2 hours.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
https://cryptrader.com/c/at0vovcO
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Buy from 3 to 6? Too much space to buy imo. There's big difference between buy at 0.0035 and buy at 0.005 for me...
I don't get on what base you think it will go to new ATH.
After todays shady dump (polo frozen) I don't see much bright future for ETH price. Won't hit ATH in 2015
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Ah didn't know it was frozen hahaha. I bought the dip.
Emotions guide us, what did this make you feel? panic, right?
This is a longterm trade, that's why I opted for the 30/70% with regular rebalance strategy. Liquidity isn't enough for short term trading.
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herkuljee oldstout
All of this is just intuition.. We dropped on to this same resistance area as 2 weeks ago and it's tested now. If it holds then we just get rid off those who wanted to leave (in the last moment from the sinking ship in their mind) and start sailing up again. If this doesn't hold next resistance level would be the previous low (0.0043). I believe the price moves up before the end of this month as Augur presale ends and valuation of eth is locked at the end of resale period..
+1 Reply
Highly probable.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
snapshot
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Thanks for reply... Crazy dumps... Now analysis is pretty funny, ETH is in regular crash in parts mode :)
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The roadmap for the frontier-homestead-etc. phases is long term. Do your due diligence and figure out if you want to risk and how much, then go for the investment strategy I suggested.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
I don't see long-term rise in any big ICO/big premine
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You judge ETH as the same as previous efforts?
I'd think it's a higher caliber, personally.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Yes, it is higher caliber, coin with novelty, but so many coins are in devs team... Well, we'll see! Good luck :)
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blackswan oldstout
@oldstout,

Precisely, and not only with devs but other early IPO buyers who are just itching to dump 100s of thousands coins... this is the major problem with instamined-premined coins, no matter how novelty coin can be market still can't be fooled... once this goes lower than 0.0035 levels that's when real panic among early buyers will start.
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I'll wait, if it drops, scooping some more.
Patience will be key here.
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blackswan IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie,

i'm with you on waiting for entry price.. just not at these levels.. 0.002x is more like it.. anyway love your work so please continue with updates!
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oldstout blackswan
hmm. in mid ETH will go more dwon, but maybe low 400k is good to go long.. with targets around 440-460k next 3-4 dasy... What you think? :)
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margin is simply too dangerous. you make money with it if using smaller stops than profit target over time but you'd have to risk small. forecasting accuracy suffers a lot with low liquidity.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
90% of my ETH trading is on margin. Very nice tool. But more than x3 or x5 would be too risky for market like ETH. 2.5x is perfect.
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to benefit from it you need to put your whole balance at stake every tone. forecasting it with good accuracy is very hard. you'd have to scalp and what I'd there ate no orders to fill you in profit? if it turns against you and you're margin called it's game over.
why use margin if not leveraging the whole account? I see no point. and I'm no scalper Joe.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
phone auto correct... use your imagination to read it :/ sorry
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Sorry Ivan but I didn't ask you for advice about trading using leveraging or not.
I'm using it and I'm making profits since ETH is at poloniex.
Forecasting margin trading is not very hard for me, maybe for you. :)
Made many BTC last 2-3 weeks with margin on ETH so I know risk as well as possible, believe me:)
Good luck :)
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Never gave you advice on it, just my opinion. I don't like scalping and I don't like risking my whole equity like that. Lucky streaks don't last forever, and when they do, I'd rather have a more controllable loss %. I know you can make money, like you have so far, but when this backfires, orders simply disappear and you get margin called. Unless you're using margin calls as a stop loss, and having a smaller part of your stash in the margin account, it'd be too risky, realistically speaking.
Or do you only scalp on high volume days?
Couldn't you do the same without margin risking a predefined amount, with total confidence in losing that amount and nothing more per bad trade?
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oldstout IvanLabrie
OK, thanks for opinion.
Well first I have traded ETH without margin with 10-20 btc, but then I learned how to use poloniex margin and since that I traded with 5-6 btc in x2.5, which was more profitable for me than non-margin trading. 2.5x is not so risky in my trading. Never get liquidated, once I get margin call :) but even this trade ends up with profit few hours later :)
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Great stuff, we have to trade our 'personality', find our niche and edge and stick with that.
Check this vid out:
http://symposium.mta.org/interactive-rotating-session-2-the-mental-edge-in-trading/
http://www.amazon.es/The-Mental-Edge-Trading-Personality/dp/0071799400 (I'll try to get the book)
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oldstout IvanLabrie
thanks for links:) I'll check it soon.
Looks like ETH will hit new low this week...
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Why do you say so?
Or it just rebounds back to 0.005.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
"Why do you say so?"
Because I think so. It's pretty hard for ICO coin who started with very hight price comparing to ICO price, to go up in long term, no matter how good coin it is.
I think last dumps and 370-380k will be broken this week.
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That's very theoretical-non technical for me. I prefer to leave opinion aside and focus on conditionals, derived from my analysis methodology.
If you find your more discretionary approach useful, then by all means, be my guest and continue using it. Not attemping to disuade you here.
The profile chart I posted illustrates the supply and demand levels, and the hidden accumulation patterns, as well as the 'fair price' zone.

I don't see anything that justifies a trending market, in this case down, like you suggest, so I assume we're still ranging, and range bound markets mostly oscillate around a mean, in this case the mode at 0.005 give or take.
Let's see what happens this week.
Cheers!
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sprkz IvanLabrie
it dove, rekon
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I bought the dip at 0.00387.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
New LOW and not even a serious bounce.
Technically there's no support before ~0.0022 level.
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Depends on your 'technique'.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Previous Lows and Highs as a support lines are not depending on technique.
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That, previous lows and highs. I don't subscribe to that as support or resistance. Simplistic, there's more to it.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
That'd be a technique discrepancy, a belief system we have, that makes the lines and black bars come to life in front of our eyes.
We can't be 100% sure they are real, or just theoretical constructs, we humans like to see patterns. It's what our brain does to kill time. :)
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New low would be under 0.0021.
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Looks like everyone is waiting for the Fed decision (only little anticipation is a signal too, so a near 55-45 situation as no hike more probable I'd say). I have tried to figure out what would different scenarios mean for cryptos (BTC&ETH mostly). It is not easy as both rise (less liquidity, stronger dollar, boosted China slowdown, risk-off attitude) and not rise (ZIRP continuation in chorus w eur/jpn, China can kicked further as downward move and devaluations still continue, risk-on attitude w doubts how long) have positive and negative elements for cryptos depending where you are and what’s the motive to hold cryptos (risk-on or risk-off investment, currency protection…)

Anyway, very much tention is accumulated now…whatever FOMC decision is, we could move to any direction big and we could then correlate/swing big too. I think learning/understanding about what happens gives more value for the future than playing big part in it (December maybe same situation only with new twists). ETH could move big up if no hike as it’s speculation prone and there’s launchpad ready. BTC has strong support on it's current level so hard to see it goes down big in any case. I got now 50/30/20 as fiat/btc/eth. Also having an eye on LTC as it could provide some ride (it came down with style so it's not a hands-off coin)..
+1 Reply
blackswan herkuljee
@herkuljee

eth has been sideways recently because majority of smart hands were and are offloading now... there's a possibility for the pump but not at current prices, probably more accumulation at 0.002x levels and then thrust towards 0.004x at most..
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oldstout herkuljee
Remember ETH is ICO. There's always ICO holders with selling at any price with huge profit....
That means rises of ETH are not easy to do like in regular-mined coins.
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Yes, but doesn't matter. Factor this in and risk money accordingly.
I already said I don't favor a trading strategy here, it's stupidly illiquid for that. :)
If you do scalp it, days over 2k btc volume might work for short term bounces.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
huge ICO and veeery high price comparing to an ICO price means for me that big supply is at profit at any price so it is very bearish sign, even if only few % of holders want to sell next few weeks.
+1 Reply
herkuljee oldstout
I am seeing this little differently without being biased. ICO is just a method to make the offering and as always there will become some whales who can manipulate, it’s the same with mined coins as well (early miners can dump big amounts later). And ICO investors & devs take a risk, not always price go up after launch (risk is rewarded if the innovation is good and become something and I believe this could be going on with eth).

I think am happy with ICO system as I cannot propose better. At the end of the day there will always be whales in every market. Would be understatement towards them saying they will sell in any price cos they have so much that it’s always profit. I think they look very closely what the price is and rather selling they prefer hoarding if price is too low. Also, the more the whales sell now, the better diversifyed market we will have.
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blackswan oldstout
@oldstout,

precisely, we've seen that numerous times among them most notorious is ripples.. now this is just tip of the iceberg, watch what happens to price when ethereum clones will start diluting and confusing market further..
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herkuljee blackswan
I know only Tau Chain which is compared to be "eth 2.0" and I'm following it now.. Can you name other "clones" which might become something, just to check out..?
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blackswan herkuljee
@herkuljee

EXP and SHIFT
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Guys, compare these moves we're seeing with the initial rally after the first ICO selloff.
This is nothing, just low liquidity drift.
I'm leaving you with some extra food for thought:
Nike-NKE Lessons from history, Lose 75% to make 13410%

(condense this into crypto-timeframes, say a couple months at best)
ETH rallying some more is entirely possible, speculating on it without liquidity to analyze the charts is an exercise in futility. Some basic fundamental analysis tells me that the people behind it aren't your everyday scamcoders, so the magnitude of rally that is possible to see, hasn't been achieved yet.
Look at BTS, it had some interesting rallies in its lifetime, and the coders weren't as popular as the ones behind Ethereum.
The key here is to risk a small amount, and aim to multiply it several times with this investment, or risking it going to $0.
Any other mindset will get you nervous, lose you money, or be as good as any other short term gamble you can take...If feeling like short term gambling, there are way better instruments to do so out there. Forex being the prime example, you can use 20-50:1 leverage, and scalp your way to some very big returns if that's your thing. It'll be way safer.
+3 Reply
Ethereum’s value proposition was something general (enabling a high rate of project-creation). However, Ethereum’s use cases are few (if not nonexistent), making the “generality” objective inappropriate." Paul Sztorc
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If they don't find good uses for it, yes, simply being novel won't cut it.
I think the potential is huge, I wouldn't overlook that. Once some of these projects are done, people might start noticing it more.
Patience will be key, if not treating this as an investment type trade, then, there is no way to trade it, simply because of low liquidity.
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oldstout MarketQ
ETHER TO ZERO [A CHAT WITH PAUL SZTORC]
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oldstout oldstout
Must read details
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Sounds like the truthcoin guy wants some free exposure on the back of talking down ETH's price.
+1 Reply
oldstout IvanLabrie
But every criticism is interesting to read.
My new ETH chart, please take a look:
ETH potential inv HS and 3rd wave new cycle?

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oldstout oldstout
Read details: tradingview.com/chart/ETHXBT/1TxSQ4If-ETH-potential-inv-HS-and-3rd-wave-new-cycle/
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sure. if we break your (1) we will see a big rally. keep in kind you can't do Elliott wave analysis on low liquidity assets. lots of bars will mean nothing and distort the wave picture. it only works with euphoric or fearful crowds.
a tick chart might be more useful in these coins.... might be worth exploring.
+1 Reply
MarketQ IvanLabrie
I really dont see what he has to gain by showing that a parasitic contract can leech off the network. Its simply a logical breakdown of fundamental flaws in the system itself. Blindly following these projects without analysis of the actual use cases, the fragile economy behind the use of the ethereum network, the vulnerabilities, scaling issues and the ICO and dev bounty is imprudent and all these raise enormous concerns about ETH in the future. Even if it was a good implementation a single fork of the Ethereum platform would create a far better system that will achieve equilibrium between market price and network usage faster because there isnt an disequilibrium created by the ICO.
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Probably, but sometimes value isn't logical...it's in the eye of the beholder.
Look at Facebook's stock valuation vs real assets, etc.
Look at AAPL's meteoric rise, people can be euphoric about ETH even if something better is possible, for whatever reason, like being first, or being Vitalik Buterin's brainchild...
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MarketQ IvanLabrie
I dislike that you dismiss Paul Sztorc, He is currently the chief scientist at Truthcoin and Paul worked directly under William Nordhaus as a member of a research team to provide appropriate statistical input in the design, execution and analysis of studies concerning macroeconomic research at Yale. He is also the "Conceptual Godfather" of Augur and thinks the project will fail. https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/augur-conceptual-godfather-thinks-project-will-fail
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I don't dismiss him, I'm not too informed in the specifics. I'm 80% technical in my approach.
Thanks for enlightening me though.
First impressions are that, I'll check that out.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
ETH is going to hell. I dont see any reason to be bullish. Mabe small rebounces but it is going really bearish.
My chart invalidated with new low (below 340k).
This guy from chart was right about incoming big dumps.
Ivan is still long biased at ETH? :P
I hope not, because all your long ETH charts - 4? charts was wrong.
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I see you're very concerned and affected by this situation.
I'm not worried in the slightest. It's not something we can forecast with this low liquidity.
Let's not grow a bald spot in our heads :p
I'm more concerned with trading other instruments right now, left my coins be, and will continue to apply the same logic with the btc I dedicated to this.
Also, I posted a new idea. I'd rather continue the chat there, if you don't mind.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
Well i cut loss my long fast enough and even open nice short:)
So I'm happy. Anyway I made many btc at ETH last weeks so my overall profit is very good.
"I'm not worried in the slightest" hehe you must be rich person or have a tight good SL (if you traded with those longs scenarios).
Ok, I will chat into new thread. :)
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No, I already explained how to trade this to stay in for the long haul.
I trade other instruments in shorter term fashion, more liquid ones.
I don't like to trade something with such volatility, and such low liquidity, with margin. Risk is simply too high for my style.
The strategy is described in the other thread. No stop loss whatsoever.
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Also, you can exit trades in profit before reaching targets, if price action doesn't support continuation (the only directional trade I took, I closed in profit before it turned south). (first publication)
Then switched to accumulating a position with constant rebalancing.
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oldstout IvanLabrie
ok, nice, i reply to you in your new thread
+1 Reply
lol eth holderz getting rekt, accept defeat, 300 wont last forever
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO tester2014
There's no defeat nor pride in trading.
Those are not things you should even consider...Also, rekt? This is a serious thread, not twitter/bitcointalk scammer manipulator chatter.
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blackswan tester2014
300 was broken, once shorts are done this will go to test 0.0019x levels...
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A new low would be intense.
If we retest low volume support it would be an instant buy.
Would rebound very rapidly and then head back to the next level at 0.00285
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ryopphdi PRO IvanLabrie
hi Ivan,

What are your current thoughts? I remember you were strongly bullish a while ago. Yesterday price tested all time lows with big volume. Wondering if this level is going to hold or if we are heading even lower.
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