Rationale for probable retracement is also supported on the basis of GAPS versus Wave Counts, such that, in a fast moving market:
1 - Wave-1 is typically associated with BREAKAWAY GAPS 2 - Wave-3 is typically associated with RUNAWAY GAPS and 3 - Wave-5 is typically associated with EXHAUSTION GAPS.
ETSY/H4 - Market Gaps versus Wave Count:
In THIS particular case, the tentative Elliott Wave count suggest that a GAP occurred along a 5th wave (i.e.: wave-v in the chart) IF the tentative wave count is correct (BLACK).
In contrast, the alternate wave count (PINK) would suggest that TWO runaway gaps occurred.
Nice charting btw! Just curious what price you feel/time this breaks out. Personally, I see a some more consolidation in the low 40 range, and Im predicating a breakout around 2 PM/2:30 , obvious traditional pickup towards end of business day. My only concern is that its a summer friday and this might breakout earlier and therefore exhaust at an earlier time than say, 3:30 pm. I appreciate your reply btw. Take care and happy trading.
The method that I use takes "space" into consideration and ignore time contribution. Hence, the forecast focuses on specific levels of retracement/validation, not timing.
David
Free_Joe
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Is August 8th, the exact date your hypothesis becomes validated, or invalidated?
4xForecaster
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Hello, @Free_Joe - Date associated with target refers to day of forecast release.
David
Free_Joe
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@4xForecaster, Date shows August 8th. What were the exact figures ? Meaning, what was the point you felt price hits its respective resistance?
Resistance/forecast targets are determined using a proprietary method that I call "CROW Code".
CROW stands for Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets, which is a quantitative/qualitative method using non-price events.
Whenever a target is determined, I place the target ahead of price action and place the date corresponding to the day it was determined.
David Alcindor
Free_Joe
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@4xForecaster, are you self taught? can you recommend any chatting tutorials/literature? Thanks again. Also, is CROW something you created or is CROW an official technical pattern indicator?