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4xForecaster
Aug 9, 2018 1:04 AM

$ETSY - Near Top; Pending Deep Retracement - 08 AUG 2018 Short

Etsy, Inc.NASDAQ

Description

ETSY - Near Top; Pending Deep Retracement - 08 AUG 2018

Tentative wave count suggests completed bullish impulse, pending correction
CROW Code calls for correction at current vicinity
CROW eyes 28.97 BULLISH reversal

Overall - Bearish; pending corrective

Risk Line (dashed curve) suggests:
1 - Pushback at/near 40.86 (RED)
2 - Reversal at/near 48.64
3 - Break of 40.86 opens floor to bears
4 - Significant support at target: 28.97.

INVALIDATION - If price breaks > 50.60, current predictive analysis/forecast becomes void.

David

Comment

UPDATE - ETSY - 10 AUG 2018:

Price moving towards forecast target as expected.

ETSY/M15:



ETSY/H4:



ETSY/H4: Watch for alternate count in PINK, justifying loftier target.



OVERALL:
Expect significant resistance at forecast target.

INVALIDATION: Breach of 50.60 would defer reversal at loftier TG-u = 55.13

Comment

TECH-NOTE - ETSY - 10 AUG 2018:

GAPS vs. Wave Count:

Traders,

Rationale for probable retracement is also supported on the basis of GAPS versus Wave Counts, such that, in a fast moving market:

1 - Wave-1 is typically associated with BREAKAWAY GAPS
2 - Wave-3 is typically associated with RUNAWAY GAPS
and
3 - Wave-5 is typically associated with EXHAUSTION GAPS.

ETSY/H4 - Market Gaps versus Wave Count:


In THIS particular case, the tentative Elliott Wave count suggest that a GAP occurred along a 5th wave (i.e.: wave-v in the chart) IF the tentative wave count is correct (BLACK).

In contrast, the alternate wave count (PINK) would suggest that TWO runaway gaps occurred.

Cheers,

David
Comments
Free_Joe
Nice charting btw! Just curious what price you feel/time this breaks out. Personally, I see a some more consolidation in the low 40 range, and Im predicating a breakout around 2 PM/2:30 , obvious traditional pickup towards end of business day. My only concern is that its a summer friday and this might breakout earlier and therefore exhaust at an earlier time than say, 3:30 pm. I appreciate your reply btw. Take care and happy trading.
4xForecaster
@Free_Joe,

The method that I use takes "space" into consideration and ignore time contribution. Hence, the forecast focuses on specific levels of retracement/validation, not timing.

David
Free_Joe
Is August 8th, the exact date your hypothesis becomes validated, or invalidated?
4xForecaster
Hello, @Free_Joe - Date associated with target refers to day of forecast release.

David
Free_Joe
@4xForecaster, Date shows August 8th. What were the exact figures ? Meaning, what was the point you felt price hits its respective resistance?

Thank you.
4xForecaster
@Free_Joe,

Resistance/forecast targets are determined using a proprietary method that I call "CROW Code".

CROW stands for Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets, which is a quantitative/qualitative method using non-price events.

Whenever a target is determined, I place the target ahead of price action and place the date corresponding to the day it was determined.


David Alcindor
Free_Joe
@4xForecaster, are you self taught? can you recommend any chatting tutorials/literature? Thanks again. Also, is CROW something you created or is CROW an official technical pattern indicator?
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