Bund 10Y Yields are back above zero for the first time in a couple of years.
We have been viewing the bond markets as building major tops for quite some time and if we take a look at the EU 10Y yield rate, which has just breached zero, we can see that there is clear evidence that rates are now in a longer term up trend and have been for well over a year. Note that the definition of an up move is for higher reaction lows and higher reaction highs, and this has been the case since October 2020.
From both a fundamental and technical perspective the bearish argument for lower Bond markets continues to build momentum. With Oil hitting multi-year highs amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply tightness, we are looking for further upside pressure on the energy markets, coupled with an upside surprise for the German ZEW Economic sentiment index yesterday (it jumped to 51.7 in January) the bond markets are suffering.
In fact, technically, the EU 10Y yields have completed a base and now look ready to maintain the break above the 200-week ma at -0.18. They have been contained within a up channel extending back to 2020 and this comes in at approx. 0.07/0.08 and is likely to offer some decent resistance ahead of much tougher resistance at 0.28/0.30 (approximate lows that were seen throughout 2018). Longer term the market has completed a large base, which offers measurements much higher than this…
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The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
We have been viewing the bond markets as building major tops for quite some time and if we take a look at the EU 10Y yield rate, which has just breached zero, we can see that there is clear evidence that rates are now in a longer term up trend and have been for well over a year. Note that the definition of an up move is for higher reaction lows and higher reaction highs, and this has been the case since October 2020.
From both a fundamental and technical perspective the bearish argument for lower Bond markets continues to build momentum. With Oil hitting multi-year highs amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply tightness, we are looking for further upside pressure on the energy markets, coupled with an upside surprise for the German ZEW Economic sentiment index yesterday (it jumped to 51.7 in January) the bond markets are suffering.
In fact, technically, the EU 10Y yields have completed a base and now look ready to maintain the break above the 200-week ma at -0.18. They have been contained within a up channel extending back to 2020 and this comes in at approx. 0.07/0.08 and is likely to offer some decent resistance ahead of much tougher resistance at 0.28/0.30 (approximate lows that were seen throughout 2018). Longer term the market has completed a large base, which offers measurements much higher than this…
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
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