- We had three weeks of pull back to retest Kijun Sen and the Kumo. The weekly picture is neutral. Price is at Kumo, but will likely close below Tenkan and Kijun. Tenkan/Kijun is medium . Chikou Span is still above Price and is located within past Kumo.
- This week's HA candle suggests the pull back may be over. The candle is a with long upeer and lower wicks, and haDelta crosses back below SMA3. The Oscilator remained during this few weeks pull back.
- Looking at horizontal line linking previous Chikou peaks and bottoms, the is between 1,4325 - 1,4435. In terms of rules 1,4325 should be broken first for a possible extension. For major downtrend to develope further, 1,3955 has to be cleared as well.
- picture is neutral with possible bias: Price is shaded by Kumo and is within Tenkan and Kijun. Tenkan is still above Kijun, but both lines have been flat, which also shows sideaway consolidation around the 26 days average. Chikou Span is above/at Price candles but below past Kumo (neutral)
- After yesterday's bit tricky price action, today the Heikin Ashi candle is red with decisive long body and with no upper wick, while haDelta makes a cross and dips further below zero line with its SMA3. The Oscillator remained during the sideaway period.
Most likely EURAUD is at the start of the next wave. We can use Kijun Sen cross strategy to enter/increase short positions, so watch for Price crossing back below 1,4425!
1,4000 will be easy to reach, but given the stop level has to be above Kumo, targeting 1,4400 is not the best risk reward. I rather target 1,3550, in line with the possible weekly channel bottom.
Obviously right now we don't know if the wave really accelerates as I expect or if we see more sideaway consolidation with spikes and hits. Therefor the only solution is to decide wisely on the position size: means allocate less capital (weight) on this EUR short position if you are not comfortable with a full unit at the beginning.