Given my view on EUR/USD long and AUD/USD short, the reasoning behind this trade should be self explanatory. If that wasn't enough, we also have the green box as support region. Considering this is a cross pair, you'll want to load less than your normal position size with a wider stop. Target would 1.55XX, even with a 100-150 pip stop loss, you're looking at 3:1 or 5:1 risk reward.
Comments
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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Doesn't look good for me right now, I'm down a total of 3% between AUD/USD shorts and EUR/AUD longs right now. I don't really want to close though considering my short bias on NZD/USD. I may let it run up to 4% loss then close it.
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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Someone asked me about this 4% comment and why I would let something run to 4% loss instead of closing it at 3%, so I'll just paste the response here for you guys as well.
4% is just a rough estimate based on my previous comment noting my stop losses: 0.9250 AUD/USD and 1.4850 EUR/AUD, it's probably much less than 4%.
As far as money management goes, a 4% loss on any account is pretty small. Especially if you compare this to most retail traders who usually draw down their entire account. Maybe at 10-20%, you would be pushing into "aggressive money management" territory but anything below 5% is pretty solid for a loss.
At this point, I should remind you that the current account I have tracked on myfxbook was set up recently to track performance of my analysis only. It's by no means a 'fully loaded' account so there's no money management used here. For the purposes of comparison, 4% of my tracking account represents less than 0.1% of my overall portfolio size.
Having said that, I'm considering funding a new account with something more substantial (but still newbie friendly) to trade for real. People have been requesting I connect a live account to myfxbook so they can see how I load positions with proper risk management. I'm not sure how I want to do it or whether or not I even want to do it yet but it's something I'm considering. I'll make my decision by the end of Q1 (Mar 31st).
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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Decided to close EUR/AUD position for a loss of 0.65%. Still holding AUD/USD, AUD weakness may still be seen but it may trigger EUR weakness as well which is why I'm skeptical with EUR/AUD.
FaultyKid
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1.5050 Is such a nice price to get in! now this market is so choppy feel like I missed out on a great trade.
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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It might go back down, I still have pending longs in the low 1.50XX region.
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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Also, something else to consider, this trade requires AUD/USD to tank down. If AUD/USD shoots up instead, that would void this trade.
FaultyKid
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I was expecting a AUD/USD to shoot up to 0.9220 before it tanks down. Have you exited your trade? I'm going to hold until I see a daily close below 1.5050
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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Nope, still holding both AUD/USD and EUR/AUD right now. I have a hard stop loss at at 0.9250 on AUD/USD and 1.4850 on EUR/AUD. I use wide stops to avoid getting stopped out by overshoot/spikes at certain levels, I too prefer to wait for daily closes.
myfxbook.com/members/FXWeeklyAnalysis/forexweeklyanalysis/864999
ForexWeeklyAnalysis
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Just to add to my last comment, I only use wide stops in my sleep since I'm not sitting here watching it but now that I'm awake, I've removed the stop loss and will be closing the trades manually as I see fit. I may just let it run it's course (I'm only down 2% right now, so I'm not really concerned) or wait till the daily candle closes before I decide to close.