justatrader

EURAUD - Ahead of Aussie employment data

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
214 0 5
This is the update to the EURAUD             head and shoulders trade idea mentioned here
EURAUD Follow Up


In this chart, i've plotted the fundamentals, namely the Aussie labour stats. Some points of note:

1. On each of these days, only the Aussie data was important. There wasn't any Eurozone data released. So we can assume that the bullish/bearish strength was mostly driven by the Aussie unemployment data.

2. Past revisions definitely play a big role in strengthening the bullish or bearish bias. Ex: Look at data revisions for 16/01 (# employed revised downward from 21k to 15.4k) and last month's release where # employed revised from -3.7 to 18k (extremely bullish Aussie).

Tomorrow's data:

# of employed expected to increase only by 7.3k while unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.1%

I'll refrain from forecasting the scenarios, but traders do keep the following in mind:

# of employed: Actual vs forecast
Unemployment rate: Actual vs forecast
Revisions: Revised up or down

Assuming the range is 250 pips, this gives an upside target back to the neckline while a downside target range of 150Pips brings EURAUD             closer to the target region of 1.45 - 1.4345

Note that the current estimates are bearish , so ideally Aussie should be able to beat the numbers. A less than expected number is going to make EURAUD             shorts risky.

Good luck!!
Professional market analyst with a keen interest on futures. Love keeping an eye on the markets. Currencies, bonds, commodities. Combining technical analysis and the fundamentals. Contact me for more details.
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