vlad.adrian

EURAUD - Anticipating a swing

Long
FX:EURAUD   Euro / Australian Dollar
The weekly chart stands at value, with a consolidation pattern that is getting tighter and tighter.

The daily chart shows a failing H&S pattern with a perfect double bottom at the right shoulder. Note that the impulse is still red, as soon as it turns blue, it is time to add.

The 4H chart is where the anticipation happens. After a smaller double bottom on even smaller time frames, a false breakout below the previous daily swing low, the strong candle where I went long should push price higher and make the daily H&S fail, confirming a double bottom and a divergence on the right shoulder. The failed daily H&S should make the weekly chart draw a rejection off value, with blue impulse. This is why this is an anticipation trade.

Soft stop below the swing low, a first target is at 1.52. I am already long, I will add around 50% of the current position as soon as the daily impulse closes blue. Tonight, RBA meeting minutes, and that is the risk to the trade. However, given the late messages from the RBA, it shouldn't be a problem. Note that also the AUDUSD stands at crossroads, but the one signaling the green light the first was the Euro cross.
Trade closed: stop reached

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