Akil_Stokes
Short

EURAUD: Cypher Pattern W/ Trend but BE AWARE.

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
Before checking out what's in store for us on the fundamental side of things I would have called this a no-brainer trading opportunity. On the daily chart we have recently put in a LLLC and presently we're retracing back into the previous 2 days highs. Not to mention we've had the completion of a bearish Cypher pattern at 1.3828 which I'd be looking to use as an entry reason into a TCT trade offering a good sized reward compared to it's risk.

The one concern that we need to be aware of is the 8:30 NY time RBA Monetary Policy Minutes. Will they give a drop a hint about rate cuts or not? That's the big question, and we all know (or know now) that because the Asia markets are very thin, news on the Aussie tends to react in a major way.

I'll be sure to stay very close o my computer before the announcement to avoid or rather minamize potential slippage one way or another
Akil Stokes -Head FOREX Trading Coach at Trade Empowered
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moneymaking
2 years ago
Hey akil, great to hear from you again. Thanks for sharing as always and Good Luck !!
+1 Reply
Thanks for your thoughts Akil. Will watch closely.
+1 Reply
dangap
2 years ago
Hi Akil welcome back.. Had an almost cypher with the X - A starting at 1.3977 but c retracement only came into the 113.0 but also against some quality structure. Would you make an acception to the rule, lol I think I know the answer but thought I'd ask.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP dangap
2 years ago
nope
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Akil_Stokes TOP dangap
2 years ago
I'm sure you can find a structure based reason up there though
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Alexander_Nikitin TOP Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
Hi, Akil. I also traded patterns using stoploss at 1.113XA. I thought it was a good idea to have a stop at some fibo level. But after I've finished my backtestings I realized, that once the price hits X+10, it usually goes further and hits 1.113XA as well. There're some rare cases when price turned to my favor without hitting 1.113XA, but defenitely hitting X+10. But their occurancies is so rare that it doesn't even cover the loss of these stops difference. So, I made a conclusion that having a 1.113XA stop I am loosing more then those profitable trades could return. What do you think of it? What are your rules of placing stops?
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Alexander_Nikitin
2 years ago
The original rules for taking the cypher were placing stops 10 beyond X. I just personally like using the ATR or 113 because they're more dynamic, especially when trading a large portfolio. Meaning that 10pips on say the EURAUD or GBPJPY are a lot different than say 10pips on the EURUSD or GBPUSD. That goes for different timeframes as well so I decided to adapt the same rules I use for other patterns
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rpk
2 years ago
As the candle closes above the X level is this pattern invalidated?
+1 Reply
dangap rpk
2 years ago
Correct
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dangap dangap
2 years ago
Sorry i should of said if your are looking to get in at that point yes it would be no longer valid
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Akil_Stokes TOP rpk
2 years ago
Correct, HHHC=Invalid
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I missed this Cypher Akil. There is another Cypher too I guess. Is that correct?
#EURAUD Cypher Pattern Short Idea
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Akil_Stokes TOP TradeYodha
2 years ago
Looks like it's a good thing that you missed it as I was just stopped out. And no that cypher you have is not valid
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TradeYodha PRO Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
Oh ok. Thanks Akil for pointing out
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nonobeijing
2 years ago
Hi Akil,

Would you mind expanding a little bit when you say at the end: "avoid or rather minimize potential slippage one way or another"? I thought once you made you planned you trade, you trade your plan. If it goes in the wrong direction, you don't exit before hitting the Stop Loss? Thanks Akil!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP nonobeijing
2 years ago
When the market makes volatile moves there is the chance that price action can go past your stops or targets and not get triggered. So during news events that move the market i'll often watch from my computer and manually close as quick as possible if I see that my orders have been hit but not filled
+3 Reply
nonobeijing Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
That's very good to know. Thanks Akil. So we can't simply place an order and walk away and come back a week later... Maybe it is good, alternatively, to set warning (notifications) on our mobiles for when the price nears the SL or TP.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP nonobeijing
2 years ago
Typically slippage won't be to bad, only on bigger news events like today's Fed minutes and non farm of course. So you can still walk away, just be aware of when these major events are released.
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I entered this cypher...
euraud short opportunity

euraud short opportunity
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CromerKing Alexander_Nikitin
2 years ago
Yeah I've just noticed this one too on constellation after being out on business most of the day.
+1 Reply
Urbandj Alexander_Nikitin
2 years ago
Nice, never noticed the cypher, even more confirmation of that area. Was trying to trade this as a bat but my order so far has been missed by 2 pips :(. Looking for another short entry
+1 Reply
CromerKing Urbandj
2 years ago
It's all come good. Cha ching.
+1 Reply
HiTech PRO
2 years ago
now it looks like we might correct further up
EURAUD CORRECTION UP
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Urbandj HiTech
2 years ago
Thanks for another point of view on this pair, I'll be watching what price action does now as we've come to test some resistance. If you're right, there should still be a 38.2 retracement to squeeze out of this, but I feel we may be coming back to retest LLLC on Daily
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HiTech PRO Urbandj
2 years ago
Well I think it should be bouncing of the neckline of the formed inverted head and shoulders
+1 Reply
This is a larger timeframe uptrend in my view.
If you look closely at either EW analysis or time spent at price and price action in detail, you will see that the downtrend is at exhaustion, probably a large short taking profits inspired bull run.

snapshot


There's not much point fighting AUD weakness here in my opinion.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Agree!
EURAUD INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS
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HiTech PRO HiTech
2 years ago
EURAUD INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS
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RyanHorner
2 years ago
Hey Akil. I was hoping I could get your current opinion on the EUR/AUD.
I've been short since the spike into resistance on the 18th, expecting more selling. Nearly a week later and 2 failed breakouts to the downside, only to come back into it's range, I'm losing confidence in my prediction.
snapshot
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Akil_Stokes TOP RyanHorner
2 years ago
The HTF charts have short written all over it. So if you're in a longer-term position I think you're on the correct side. Regardless once you're in the trade who cares about confidence. You're either going to be stopped out or have targets hit. Those should be the only options. Trust your initial analysis and just try not to look at the chart. The more you watch it the worse you'll feel
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RyanHorner Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
Thank you for your insight Akil! :)
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