1-hour time frame, EUR/AUD is trending higher inside a rising channel and the pair is currently testing support. Aussie may have enjoyed a strong run from impressive job data in the Asian session, but it could return those gains to the euro if the ECB sounds more upbeat. Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, too. If price action makes fakeout from daily pivot s3, SMA 100&200 and price admiring the rising channel's lower trendline (support) may be the first signals of bearish momentum fading off. This could be the chance for buyers to hop in and take back price up to the top of the rising channel around daily r1 of the pivot but before that, any major adjustments to price stability and growth targets could impact the euro during ECB release which must be taken care. Some analysts predicting that there could be more optimism surrounding recent economic data release. Breakout lower from all those above mentioned crucial areas of interest with strong bearish momentum can be a case if ECB mess up with its upcoming release which can boost the bearish bias idea on this pair!! Oh, and I will like to bet on bounce bais yo! What about you pals? Which team are you? Bounce or break? Feel free to share your ideas in the comment section ;)
Comment
⋅
Lagarde told a news conference that risks to growth in the eurozone remained tilted to the downside and traders took her overall tone as dovish. ( Wasn't a positive outlook for bull players on euro last night. Lagarde’s surprisingly dovish presser from the U.S. session spooked EUR bulls and this anti-EUR sentiment carried over to the Asian session. At this point, we can see Aussie is trying kick euro butt. The bounce bias which I bet on hasn't gone well which I assume at this point seeing the current situation. Moreover seeing our price action, for now, price is trying to move toward lower than daily pivot s1, oscillator supports bearish tone so far. German inflation reports were fine, itlay service had some issue but manufacturing did fine. The whole Eurozone inflation report wasn't except the Manufacturing PMI of Jan which leave now ECB President Lagarde Speaks later after England reports which should finalize the sentiment for the rest of the session for euro.
YOUR IDEA AND METHODOLOGY IS GOOD.
BUT THERE IS A CONFUSION..
WHY WE CAN NOT GUESS 100% .
WE ALL
jessi061
⋅
@nomanasri1, thanks for your feedback. We cannot guess 100% guess in any financial market that's how the nature of such financial market had been and that's where the word "probability and forecast" came into existence. Everything is about probabilities as nobody can guarantee a 100% future. That's how life works but the difference is only that some are too lucky or having higher probabilities methods while some lower but nothing is 100% every time.
jessi061
⋅
@nomanasri1, (TP got smashed) that was my higher probability idea which I had with trade setup but I never expected or was guaranteed with this trade by 100% guess. That's not how our financial markets work so we have money plus risk management in play.
BUT THERE IS A CONFUSION..
WHY WE CAN NOT GUESS 100% .
WE ALL