Predictive/Forecasting Model defined bearish qualitative target as:
TG-Lo = 1.31707 - 21 APR 2015.
Background geometry continues to develop into credible decline continuation. Extent of ectopic Point-5 as 5-prime (5') also remains attainable relative to above forecast.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Price did rally as forecast, but carved out a structure high that would displace Point-4 to a new locus - The result is as follows:
In terms of Geo development, there is little to no change as far as the 1-3 Line goes. What changes is the slope of the 1-4 Line. Looking at the Off-Set Rule, if price were to rally off of Point-5, then the 1-4 Line would remains the principle target of interest, as is the rule in Mr. Bill Wolfe's WolfeWave.com introductory explanation. If, instead price were to attain a lower level (and validate the Predictive Model's bearish target), then a return to the level corresponding to Point-4 would be the next, conservative, but most probable level of probable attainment.
Recent price action in XAU suggested a possible rallying. This would not only fuel a rallying in AUD, CAD and CHF, but also a significant rallying in the EUR, since both are antipodean agents to the US Dollar (the other two first are major exporters, and SNB has a significant reserve in gold), hence propping the inherent values of the economies correlating with Gold value).
Reason why this is an important detail is because this EUR vs. AUD chart pits two currencies that have a strong correlation with the value of gold. Once this occurs, one should NOT look their relative correlating strength in gold (although it will have a net effect on how one moves relative to the other), but other core fundamental issues would need to be considered.
For instance, price of oil, if it is rising, would impair earnings of the manufacturing and exporting companies of the Eurozone, but increase the revenue of the Canadian oil exporting industry. Thus, a force-multiplier effect might bring the EURCAD down, where EUR would be declining and CAD rising simultaneously, which is much more impactful than when one fundamental event impacts only one side of the relative-strength equation.
However, per my recent UKOIL and USOIL charts, price of oil is expected to fall further ... Perhaps a result of negotiations from a recent meeting between the US and the oil cartels - Who knows. Charts are good foretellers, though. In the context of this Forex pair, this would prop up the EUR and negatively impact CAD, sending this pair to higher highs, which has been the Predictive Model's initial indication (see EURAUD daily/weekly charts I have posted before).
Best,
David Alcindor
nikokoev
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Very nice global analysis David.
4xForecaster
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14 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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EURAUD shifted Point-4 plot as shown; Increased prob. of decline to 5/5' to complete Geo:
Hello @Javier - If the geo is unfolding according to its own agreement, then it will fill that space between here and up above to complete its plot, whatever that means in terms of value.
When Bitcoin was in the 900-600 digits, I called it to fall in the 200-300. A lot of people either dismissed it as a ludicrous opinion or an impossible belief. In both cases, they were right to object, in so far as these were neither an opinion, nor a belief. I was simply posting data from the predictive model.
I personally am not able to emit any reliable opinion. Anytime I do so, especially when contrary to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, I end up being wrong. When developing the Model, I would still trade based on my "belief" or "opinion", but I would see my capital dwindle and the Model gaining precision.
All of the analyses I post are neither opinion, nor believes. They are the product of either a Quantitative Model ("Predictive/Forecasting Model") or an exercise in advance market geometries.
David
4xForecaster
⋅
24 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
Price ignored geometry; Hit Predictive/Forecasting Model target:
TECH-NOTE:
Price did rally as forecast, but carved out a structure high that would displace Point-4 to a new locus - The result is as follows:
In terms of Geo development, there is little to no change as far as the 1-3 Line goes. What changes is the slope of the 1-4 Line. Looking at the Off-Set Rule, if price were to rally off of Point-5, then the 1-4 Line would remains the principle target of interest, as is the rule in Mr. Bill Wolfe's WolfeWave.com introductory explanation. If, instead price were to attain a lower level (and validate the Predictive Model's bearish target), then a return to the level corresponding to Point-4 would be the next, conservative, but most probable level of probable attainment.
A quick word on XAU:
Recent price action in XAU suggested a possible rallying. This would not only fuel a rallying in AUD, CAD and CHF, but also a significant rallying in the EUR, since both are antipodean agents to the US Dollar (the other two first are major exporters, and SNB has a significant reserve in gold), hence propping the inherent values of the economies correlating with Gold value).
Reason why this is an important detail is because this EUR vs. AUD chart pits two currencies that have a strong correlation with the value of gold. Once this occurs, one should NOT look their relative correlating strength in gold (although it will have a net effect on how one moves relative to the other), but other core fundamental issues would need to be considered.
For instance, price of oil, if it is rising, would impair earnings of the manufacturing and exporting companies of the Eurozone, but increase the revenue of the Canadian oil exporting industry. Thus, a force-multiplier effect might bring the EURCAD down, where EUR would be declining and CAD rising simultaneously, which is much more impactful than when one fundamental event impacts only one side of the relative-strength equation.
However, per my recent UKOIL and USOIL charts, price of oil is expected to fall further ... Perhaps a result of negotiations from a recent meeting between the US and the oil cartels - Who knows. Charts are good foretellers, though. In the context of this Forex pair, this would prop up the EUR and negatively impact CAD, sending this pair to higher highs, which has been the Predictive Model's initial indication (see EURAUD daily/weekly charts I have posted before).
Best,
David Alcindor