H1 price action inside our EURAUD bearish trade

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
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EURAUD             - We are currently inside a D1 downtrend, this is an H1 look inside our D-chart trade (see my previous chart).
If you're not in the trade yet - this is a chance for re-entry. If you are in the trade - this is where we evaluate our position.

As said we are currently in a nice bearish downtrend. We could just wait and see what happens but its never a bad idea to re-evaluate at key positions inside the trade. Atm. we are at one of those spots. Our trade has hit S&R which, according to the strength of the move, is unlikely to reverse trend - but will probably do have an effect on price action.

H1 is currently testing D1 S&R line at 1.48002, giving the impression of a respect.
If a candle closes under the 1.47867 dotted line, price will likely continue to our projected longer term TP.
If a candle closes above the purple H1 S&R line, it is probably going to the blue H1 S&R bank first,
price action will most likely turn bearish again from here.

For people already in the short trade I'd suggest closing your trade (or partially) on a candle close above the purple line. With the idea of re-entering after the retrace is made from the blue S&R bank. There we could wait on a potential candle rejecting the blue zone. Where we enter with S/L above the blue zone, and I'd take a first TP at around 1.48000, with a 2nd TP towards weekly S&R.
I reckon this is the most likely scenario.
Evidently if price just respects the purple line and closes under 1.47867, we got more confirmation our trade is valid and just stay with it. New traders can potentially also jump in here.

N.B. If price goes up and above the blue zone, we need more information before trading anything. Though this is unlikely to happen seeing price action and trend setup the last few days.

UPDATE 12h00:
We had our close above our purple line (barely, but it's over previous tops so looks valid). This is our closing signal (personally i closed half my trade).
Let's follow this up rest next few hours / rest of the day looking for a re-entry.

UPDATE 31/03 08:00:
Price hit our H1 stronger trendline & flirted with blue base bottom (instead of a hard reject from inside it).
Price is probably going to the D1 S&R line from here, and likely to have enough power now to break the pink support base towards lower grounds.
This is a potential good re-entry point in our downtrend again. We could take the trade here, with TP1 at D1 S&R line and TP2 our major Weekly line.
Beware tough that the rejection isn't very clear, it could be heading up there again for more firepower.
However, because it took somewhat longer to make the move, we also have our trendline to support the downmove.

2 years ago

An updated image zoomed in at where we're looking at. The no-closing zone is what it says, this is a zone where price could potentially spike. We don't expect closes here. If candles do close here, shorts are invalid for now.
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