EURAUD - We have a nice rising W-trend that has been testing, reacting to a fairly strong M-resistance line. We have had 4 hits to the resistance so far, and still not a real break trough, which might suggest it needs power from a stronger support bank (blue weekly S&R on chart). We have a nice head & shoulders formed along with lower tops on RSI as signs for bearish W-move.
Daily chart gives us a first confirmation on closing below 1.5195x, which is below a horizontal resistance line, AND, 2 daily trendlines. First move towards strong D-S&R at 1.5027x is a fact, this is our first TP.
2Nd move will probably need some more power to break trough the 1.5027x supportline, which it will probably get from the D1-trendline(s). If it goes trough, it is extremely likely to go to the bank of W-S&R. There is not much resistance in between there, + it has the support of the strong M resistance backed up with some D trendlinepower. Our 2nd TP is at the top of this bank.
Entry: 1.51958 (potential re-entry at a 1.5195x retrace, or on a confirmed break below 1.5027x) TP1: 1.50274 TP2: 1.45317
UPDATE 26/03: First TP hit and candle is breaking the 1.5027x barrier.
If you're looking for a re-entry: Still waiting the actual close but I'll probably suggest taking a small retrace as entrypoint. In this case I suggest SL on 1.51958, TP1 on 1.47837 and TP2 on 1.45317. If you want to play it safe: watch H1 for optional retrace point and confirmation.
Update 28/04: Heads up - I'm out of the trade entirely, the candle on 23/04 was the deconfirmcandle. I stepped out on the close on 1.48708. Price could still go down, but we'll need more information.
Comments
Evild0er
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Update: I cashed out at first TP, 2nd half of trade is still running - I've put the S/L at 1.49680 for a nice profit even if it not reach projected tp. Will be monitoring next few days, but basically I'll probably take TP when the greater trendline is hit (instead of the projected horizontal line).
Evild0er
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I've you're shorting EURAUD, I'd suggest taking a look at my EURAUD inside view chart. Where I peek at H1-price action at key points to evaluate the longer time trade. (and potentially make more money, or lose less :)
justatrader
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Nice and simple chart. I think the real breakdown of the Euro came from y'days ECB talk. I've been short on EURAUD and EURNZD (since before the RBNZ rate hike). EURUSD though is still quite resilient despite y'day. EURAUD, 1.5 is a strong technical and psychological level which has been tested quite a few times. Reg. the H&S I think if today's candle can close comfortably lower the neckline region it would be an added bonus for shorts.
Evild0er
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It's good to hear the economics support the bearish move, as I always go for a pure technical analysis (except for the really big news). However like you say both agree 1.5 is a strong level though so breaking it should make for a great risk/reward ratio.