EUR/AUD FULL ANALYSIS: Possibly massive trend reversal ahead!
Hi traders,
Here's the EUR/AUD pair which possibly signals a massive trend reversal and a buying opportunity.
As usual, we don't take any trades unless all rules of our trading strategy align.
TECHNICALS:
The pair has been in a nice downtrend since March, forming fresh LLs and LHs until it reached the 1.61 support, which aligns both with a horizontal support and a longer-term rising trendline.
The interesting part happened yesterday: Risk-off flows formed a fresh HH (after the pair failed to form a fresh LL on June 8), signaling a possible trend reversal.
The 1-hour chart zooms in a possible entry area: A pullback to a short-term horizontal support level.
Now to the other signals that point up:
RISK SENTIMENT:
Risk sentiment has notably changed yesterday with the sell-off in US equities and with signs of a possible second wave of the Covid-19. This could continue in the week ahead.
POSITIONING:
Markets are bullish on the EUR after the recent ECB meeting, and have total bearish positioning on the AUD. Although the net AUD bias (net changes in positioning) has been bullish with the recent risk-on, this could possible change in the next trading week and push the EUR/AUD pair up.
CORRELATIONS and INTEREST RATES:
German/Australian 2y yields (green) are slightly diverging from the exchange rate, and Copper keeps falling (yellow line, inverted) as global demand vanishes. This could be another headwind for the AUD and provide support for the pair in the coming week.
Please hit the "LIKE" button if you would like more posts like this. Thanks!
Here's the EUR/AUD pair which possibly signals a massive trend reversal and a buying opportunity.
As usual, we don't take any trades unless all rules of our trading strategy align.
TECHNICALS:
The pair has been in a nice downtrend since March, forming fresh LLs and LHs until it reached the 1.61 support, which aligns both with a horizontal support and a longer-term rising trendline.
The interesting part happened yesterday: Risk-off flows formed a fresh HH (after the pair failed to form a fresh LL on June 8), signaling a possible trend reversal.
The 1-hour chart zooms in a possible entry area: A pullback to a short-term horizontal support level.
Now to the other signals that point up:
RISK SENTIMENT:
Risk sentiment has notably changed yesterday with the sell-off in US equities and with signs of a possible second wave of the Covid-19. This could continue in the week ahead.
POSITIONING:
Markets are bullish on the EUR after the recent ECB meeting, and have total bearish positioning on the AUD. Although the net AUD bias (net changes in positioning) has been bullish with the recent risk-on, this could possible change in the next trading week and push the EUR/AUD pair up.
CORRELATIONS and INTEREST RATES:
German/Australian 2y yields (green) are slightly diverging from the exchange rate, and Copper keeps falling (yellow line, inverted) as global demand vanishes. This could be another headwind for the AUD and provide support for the pair in the coming week.
Please hit the "LIKE" button if you would like more posts like this. Thanks!
