ForceFollower
Long

EURCAD Upward Potential

FX:EURCAD   Euro Fx/Canadian Dollar
250 13 1
I expect the prior large price range to double to the upside. The trend is very strong, price broke out of the fork and should continue upward for a while.
Here's a slightly different way of looking at it - support becoming resistance along an axis line:
snapshot

And in the red box there's a 'two bar reversal' - what Paul Coghlan calls a 'flush', except spread over two bars:
snapshot

That's bearish. And the later spike high just touched the same level. I suspect that rally has sucked a lot of people into wanting to stay long EURCAD, and it's taking a while for GS etc to dump their holdings on them even though this enthusiasm is showing up in volumes. See the EP1! EURCAD futures contract, which has volumes. When the smart money's done shifting it's stock, I suspect it's game over. (With some bounces along the way...)

(This is based on some Wyckoff material I'm looking into at the moment. I haven't fully absorbed it - Wyckoff had a very detailed model of the bull-bear cycle - but the message to be suspicious of high volume after a long rally, and these reversals/flushes, is clear enough...)
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
The pattern is bearish to me only when some lows get taken out. At this moment in time, not a single low has been taken out.

There's also a very interesting pattern, popularized by the very Wyckoff you're talking about, called 'springs' and 'upthrusts' (check this out, if you care http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzISUr1itWg). Paul Coghlan mentioned this pattern once too, but he didn't give credit to anybody, nor called it in any way. It happens, when a high (or a low) is taken out by a very small amount of price, just by a few pips, and then price plummets back down (or jumps up respectively). Such behavior is also one of the best indicators of a possible reversal. I placed an example below.

The signals other than those two are often misleading, so I tend to stick to the pervasive trend. I used to look for reversals as most people do, but it didn't pay. Trends were most often stronger than I thought they were. That's why I abandoned trying to catch the reversals and I'm a force follower.
snapshot
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
I see what you mean; I don't know if it's time for a reversal, or just a longer retracement. Here's my attempt at a Weiss-style markup of the hourly chart (grey) with some Ackerman twists:
snapshot

I'm still trying to pick up the Wyckoff approach, including the Weiss angle on Wyckoff. (So thanks VERY much for that link; I'll watch it tomorrow. Return treat below if you've not seen it.) But I don't think he'd see anything tradeable at 1h or 4h here. Unless maybe the upper grey dotted line defines the lower boundary to a trading range (eg because it gave resistance earlier)? In which case, maybe we'll break one way or the other - it's really teetering there *right* now :p

Ackerman-style notes: The previous ABCD completed; this one showed "P activity", so it seems "live". And after crossing P decisively, Ackerman says, "we 'know' this thing is going to D" - by which I think he means there's a very good chance of that. And his analysis lacks any time dimension, so sometimes one leg takes much longer to complete.

Perhaps the "ABCD completion" will turn out to be an "upthrust out of the current trading range", before a bit more consolidation :p

More Weiss: http://www.56.com/w22/album-aid-8099812.html
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
Thank you for your study. Yes, it's teetering there now and it's OK. with me. As for the D, well, markets are not geometry exercise books and trying to be too perfect has cost me a lot of frustration. I sometimes prefer to use broader lines to allow for some slackness. Rememebr the rule: Apply the position size with a surgeon-like precision and study the charts meticulously but allow for the failures (inability for the price to do the 'obvious' things). Markets are imperfect as is human behavior.

I know the price is extremely streched to the upside and it would do with some correction, but look at the elevator-move that has brought us up there - that's where force is. And this force will probably show up again, as soon as better buying opportunities show up. Go short to make money on the correction? No, I don't even bother to think about it. It may correct deeply or shallowly, but there's a high probability this move up is not done yet: it doesn't look like a top, no climactic rejection like the one seen at the recent top of the AUDUSD trend (H4), no upthrust, no major low taken out. The euro is very strong and "canada" is still weak. So I stay long.

Naturally, there's also some give-up point at which I know I was wrong and the market is more likely to continue lower than follow the up trend. This approach is so much better than looking to catch the top twice (or more times) in a row and keep getting stopped out, never knowing when to stop.

Thanks for the link. I can see you found it on some exotic, Chinese youtube. Can you speak Chinese? :-)
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
Yeah, I think you're right; it's just due a correction. It's looking near the bottom of that little range (aka the 'edge of the lake ;) now...

One thing concerns me though: Merkel making a big fuss about the NSA spying. Weeks ago we knew the US was spying on other countries (eg Brazil). And they wouldn't do the same to Germany? Nonsense. So my guess is some bad news is coming - or going to come - out of Germany or the EU, and this is the best diversion they could come up with... Let's face it, withholding German gold & a huge chunk of their forex reserves for 7 years would - in an era where the US was less dominant militarily - be considered an act of war, and less was publicly made of that. We'll see....

I can speak Chinese (tho I'm getting rusty & read it rather poorly). I just found that link on a trading forum :p
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I know it's fighting me. But just be patient - I believe, the uptrend will soon resume. :-)
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
Looks like it's right on time ;)
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
Yes, but the correction is not over yet.
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
You think it's headed back to the ML?
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
Yes, but to this blue ML:
snapshot
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
Lol - didn't see that coming. In fact, that's one of the problems with pitchforks - sometimes they have to be 'active' for quite a while before they're noticeable...
(BTW, Tim Morge does some webinars for CME/Interactive Brokers; I think they're free & open to non-IB clients with registration. Next one's on 15th Nov "CME - When your markets are not offering you trading opportunities, let Tim Morge show you two market gems he turns to". Afterwards they're downloadable but in a weird file format. I got a converter going, but the MP4s have messed up fast forward etc. PIA!)
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
Yes, thank you :-), but I know and I attend those webinars. I'll be there or I'll watch the recording. The ARF format is not standard, but they provide the player, so I don't bother converting it. There are other two trading-related services that also use this format, so I keep it. By the way, anything you'll convert will have poorer quality than the original.
Anyway, EURCAD got hit by some nexus of events that I don't really get, or was it just another minor correction? It's hard to maintain an unshakable faith in a given market, when it keeps making scary moves.
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
That's good - I just discovered them :) I'm using Linux, which the much of the corporate world seems determined to ignore; I can watch streaming ARFs or convert, and it took a while to figure out how to do that!

Looks to me like EURCAD just corrected to support on your upper green MLH... Or did I miss something?
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