And in the red box there's a 'two bar reversal' - what Paul Coghlan calls a 'flush', except spread over two bars:
That's bearish. And the later spike high just touched the same level. I suspect that rally has sucked a lot of people into wanting to stay long EURCAD, and it's taking a while for GS etc to dump their holdings on them even though this enthusiasm is showing up in volumes. See the EP1! EURCAD futures contract, which has volumes. When the smart money's done shifting it's stock, I suspect it's game over. (With some bounces along the way...)
(This is based on some Wyckoff material I'm looking into at the moment. I haven't fully absorbed it - Wyckoff had a very detailed model of the bull-bear cycle - but the message to be suspicious of high volume after a long rally, and these reversals/flushes, is clear enough...)
There's also a very interesting pattern, popularized by the very Wyckoff you're talking about, called 'springs' and 'upthrusts' (check this out, if you care http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzISUr1itWg). Paul Coghlan mentioned this pattern once too, but he didn't give credit to anybody, nor called it in any way. It happens, when a high (or a low) is taken out by a very small amount of price, just by a few pips, and then price plummets back down (or jumps up respectively). Such behavior is also one of the best indicators of a possible reversal. I placed an example below.
The signals other than those two are often misleading, so I tend to stick to the pervasive trend. I used to look for reversals as most people do, but it didn't pay. Trends were most often stronger than I thought they were. That's why I abandoned trying to catch the reversals and I'm a force follower.
I'm still trying to pick up the Wyckoff approach, including the Weiss angle on Wyckoff. (So thanks VERY much for that link; I'll watch it tomorrow. Return treat below if you've not seen it.) But I don't think he'd see anything tradeable at 1h or 4h here. Unless maybe the upper grey dotted line defines the lower boundary to a trading range (eg because it gave resistance earlier)? In which case, maybe we'll break one way or the other - it's really teetering there *right* now :p
Ackerman-style notes: The previous ABCD completed; this one showed "P activity", so it seems "live". And after crossing P decisively, Ackerman says, "we 'know' this thing is going to D" - by which I think he means there's a very good chance of that. And his analysis lacks any time dimension, so sometimes one leg takes much longer to complete.
Perhaps the "ABCD completion" will turn out to be an "upthrust out of the current trading range", before a bit more consolidation :p
More Weiss: http://www.56.com/w22/album-aid-8099812.html
I know the price is extremely streched to the upside and it would do with some correction, but look at the elevator-move that has brought us up there - that's where force is. And this force will probably show up again, as soon as better buying opportunities show up. Go short to make money on the correction? No, I don't even bother to think about it. It may correct deeply or shallowly, but there's a high probability this move up is not done yet: it doesn't look like a top, no climactic rejection like the one seen at the recent top of the AUDUSD trend (H4), no upthrust, no major low taken out. The euro is very strong and "canada" is still weak. So I stay long.
Naturally, there's also some give-up point at which I know I was wrong and the market is more likely to continue lower than follow the up trend. This approach is so much better than looking to catch the top twice (or more times) in a row and keep getting stopped out, never knowing when to stop.
Thanks for the link. I can see you found it on some exotic, Chinese youtube. Can you speak Chinese? :-)
One thing concerns me though: Merkel making a big fuss about the NSA spying. Weeks ago we knew the US was spying on other countries (eg Brazil). And they wouldn't do the same to Germany? Nonsense. So my guess is some bad news is coming - or going to come - out of Germany or the EU, and this is the best diversion they could come up with... Let's face it, withholding German gold & a huge chunk of their forex reserves for 7 years would - in an era where the US was less dominant militarily - be considered an act of war, and less was publicly made of that. We'll see....
I can speak Chinese (tho I'm getting rusty & read it rather poorly). I just found that link on a trading forum :p
(BTW, Tim Morge does some webinars for CME/Interactive Brokers; I think they're free & open to non-IB clients with registration. Next one's on 15th Nov "CME - When your markets are not offering you trading opportunities, let Tim Morge show you two market gems he turns to". Afterwards they're downloadable but in a weird file format. I got a converter going, but the MP4s have messed up fast forward etc. PIA!)
Anyway, EURCAD got hit by some nexus of events that I don't really get, or was it just another minor correction? It's hard to maintain an unshakable faith in a given market, when it keeps making scary moves.
Looks to me like EURCAD just corrected to support on your upper green MLH... Or did I miss something?