Caught this aggressive short just before i could no longer keep my eyes open so I did not publish. This 4th try to break the top reminded me of W D Gann who said something to the effect that when a 4th attempt to make a new high/low trade in the opposite direction. If it does break to new highs or lows go with the trend. Short from 1.52745 with low risk stops on the huge divergence in RSI. At the least looking for a return to the bottom of the channel that has formed and even beyond to a measured move. Of course, it is not a complete double top until it breaks the bottom of the channel around 1.5066. Should this play out it will probably take several days and should offer opportunities to participate and/or add more position size. (wish I had published this: now it just looks like I'm bragging ~~~)
Comments
dojitrader
⋅
An abundance of caution has cost me a couple hundred pips and
I don't see any indication of a trend line test.
Geez !!!
What's that saying: Let your winners run . . ..
Nah, couldn't possibly be true, could it ?
ElbaFXAnalysis
⋅
Great call
dojitrader
⋅
Thanks, I was hoping that Friday would be corrective price action all day and let me back in
on the Sunday open -- it took only about 6 hours. Maybe a test of the trend line will be my chance.
The one concern at this point is that the collapse has been in only 3 waves so we'll have to see
how it tests the trend line to have confidence in the retest
dojitrader
⋅
If this was Tuesday i'd just let it go, but, the last hour/s hammer candlestick is
a beauty and the 2 hour candle could be an even bigger hammer.
Looked all the way back to the 1st of the year and found no others.
So, as I write it is testing the lower tail and I'm looking to take 1/2 off
around 1.5150 for +125 pips about a 50% retracement - common
before it completely reverses.
Will probably close the position tomorrow with an eye to reenter on
the Sunday open.
Gotta respect the hammer !
dojitrader
⋅
Done ! @ 1.5255 for +120 and stops moved to
1.53339 which is just above the last point of reaction
and the 618 retracement.
Now we see if I was brilliant or foolish ~~~~~~
dojitrader
⋅
D' OH !!!!!
This is so parabolic,
I can't watch any more.
I'm taking profit on the second half for +150 pips
and hope there is a chance for re entry on next
weeks open.
I'll just have to suffer with +120 pips on the first half
and +150 on the second half in less than 24 hours.
Sarcasm aside there's probably more down side to come.
dojitrader
⋅
The hourly chart is looking a little tooooo bullish for my expectations.
Moving stops to 1.52669. Only +7 pips but, I'm thinking I want to give this
enough room to slop around, but, if it goes beyond the .786 fib retracement,
the idea has probably fallen apart. Another test of the top does not seem
logical at this point and is more likely to blast off.
Robert24
⋅
Yeah, it's my method. The circle distances have to be sized to fit previous hits on the chart and honestly I do better on dailies with it than 15 minutes. They are actually ellipses that have been scaled to turned them into circles, so a radius distance is the same, no matter what angle, 15 degrees to the right or 75 degrees straight up. With an ellipse shape the eccentricity screws up the radius. If you got my second chart they both have agreement at 151469, but I watch for a bounce at 151850 because it fits a channel on the 15 minute. The channels are more reliable than the circles on the 15 minute. There is a possibility of a new channel forming if the 151850 is broken. Those are my guesstimations.
Robert24
⋅
Made a boo boo on the chart writing. Should be 151469 not 151649.
dojitrader
⋅
As long as you understand what is being projected on your charts.
For me, charts that have all those circles and lines just make me dizzy.
I can only see a trade when simplicity is the fundamental structure.
Wishing you lots of pips in your pocket for 2014 !!!!!
I don't see any indication of a trend line test.
Geez !!!
What's that saying: Let your winners run . . ..
Nah, couldn't possibly be true, could it ?